We had a rough night of betting for UFC Fight Night – Poirier vs Hooker. Our bets ended up going 1-3 on the night for a total loss of 4.3 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +25.64 units with an overall ROI of 20%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 54%.
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs Hooker (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Dustin Poirier (+2.7 units *MAX BET*)
The only bright spot of the evening was hitting our max bet on Poirier. We’re now 4-0 on the year on 5 unit max bets. I mentioned in last weeks breakdown that there’s levels to this MMA game and Poirier proved me right. Hooker was ultra tough in this fight taking the first 2 rounds on all 3 judges scorecards. However he took a good amount of damage in those rounds and proceeded to slow down dramatically for the rest of the fight. Poirier was able to take control of the fight in round 3 and was much the stronger fighter for the rest of the fight. His experience in big fights against elite competition was the difference and got him the victory.
Losing Bets
Jordan Griffin (-3 units)
I made the mistake of giving Griffin too much credit for his fight experience and not enough credit to Zalal for his talent. Griffin had his moments in the fight but couldn’t capitalize on them. He tested Zalal’s ground game a couple of times and to my surprise Zalal was able to stay composed and make his way back to his feet. And that’s where he won the fight being the much more active striker landing more than twice the amount of strikes while throwing nearly twice as much. Zalal even showed off his grappling game by being able to rattle off nearly 4 minutes of control time as well. No wonder this line flipped with Zalal opening as the dog and going off as the favorite.
Luis Peña (-3 units)
Luis Peña is a very talented fighter who isn’t living up to his full potential. He’s now 3-3 in the UFC and simply put can’t be trusted to put your hard earned money on. I made the mistake of trusting him with my money as an over 2-1 favorite. I thought he’d be ok on the feet against Worthy and he was. I really though he’d have a huge advantage on the ground and he dominated round 2 with his grappling. I expected more of the same in round 3 but to my surprise Worthy never gave him the opportunity. Then Worthy went on to shock the MMA world by submitting Peña with a guillotine choke shortly after a failed takedown attempt. Plain and simple I made a bad bet on a underachieving fighter at bad odds.
Brendan Allen ITD (-1 unit)
Brendan Allen extended his UFC record to 3-0 with a unanimous decision victory over Kyle Daukaus. The problem is we bet him to win inside the distance. That was looking like a good bet less than a minute into the fight when Allen landed a huge knee to the face of Daukaus dropping him to the canvas. He proceeded to mount Daukaus and it was looking like the end was near. Daukaus however was ultra tough and his strong BJJ game kept him from being submitted. He went on to have his moments, even having a dominant round 3 against Allen. I underestimated Daukaus’ durability and skill level and the result was another unit lost.
This was the first card in the last 9 UFC cards where we lost more than a unit betting. It was bound to happen at some point. Now that we got that out of our system let’s see if we can begin another winning streak starting with UFC 251.
UFC 251: Usman vs Masvidal (PLAYS)
Volkan Oezdemir over Jiri Prochazka (3 units -150) Bet was placed on 6/29/20.
Volkan Oezdemir is the 7th ranked light heavyweight and is 5-3 all time in the UFC. He was fast tracked to a title shot against Daniel Cormier after winning his 1st 3 UFC fights. Since then he’s gone 2-2 in his last 4 fights but has actually evolved as a fighter. He lost to Anthony Smith in a fight that was very close prior to being submitted in round 3. Next he lost a split decision to Dominick Reyes in a fight many thought he should’ve been given the victory. Then he finished Ilir Latifi in round 2 sending him to the heavyweight division. Finally he defeated Alexander Rakic in a close fight derailing the Rakic hype train. Now he faces UFC newcomer Jiri Prochazka. Prochazka enters the UFC with an impressive 26-3-1 record while riding a 10 fight win streak. There’s a huge difference in the quality of opposition between the 2 fighters. Oezdemir has held his own against the elite of the UFC. Prochazka on the other hand has been feasting on former UFC journeymen in his last 2 fights. Prochazka is talented but the UFC isn’t doing him any favors by giving him Oezdemir for his debut. I expect the improving Oezdemir and his wealth of experience against elite competition to get him the win in this fight.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov over Raulian Paiva (1 unit +165) Bet was placed on 7/1/20.
I generally have a rule that I don’t bet on fighters making their UFC debut. The main reason is it’s a big unknown how they’re going to fare against UFC caliber competition. Well that’s not the case with Zhumagulov. In 2 of his last 3 fights he holds victories over fighters who have competed and won in the UFC. He’s a talented striker who wins a lot of fights by decision because of his high output, pressuring style. Paiva in the other hand is 1-2 in the UFC. He lost a close fight in his debut against Kai Kara-France. Then he lost against Rogerio Bontorin by doctor stoppage due to a bad cut he suffered early in the fight. Paiva completely demolished soon to be ex-UFC fighter Mark De La Rosa in his last fight. These 2 fighters are pretty evenly matched in my opinion but the odds don’t reflect it. I’ll gladly take my chances in a fight like that getting generous dog odds of +165.
Rose Namajunas over Jessica Andrade (3 units -175) Bet was placed on 7/1/20.
This is a rematch of a fight that took place 14 months ago. Andrade captured the UFC Women’s Strawweight title by the rare slam KO in round 2. Prior to that however, we all seen what was happening. Rose was putting on a boxing clinic. It seemed like everything she threw was landing on Andrade’s face. Unless Andrade drastically tightened up her striking defense, I see more of the same happening in the rematch. Plus it’s now a 3 round fight so Andrade is going to have less time to try and finish Rose again. If Rose is in the right state of mind and truly misses having her championship belt, she should coast to an easy victory over Andrade in the rematch.
Maxim Grishin over Marcin Tybura (1 unit -135) Bet was placed on 7/5/20.
Once again I find myself placing a bet on a fighter making his UFC debut. And it’s on a fighter who’s stepping in on short notice who’s moving up a weight class. To make matters worse I got in early thinking money would start to come in on Grishin and the opposite occurred. This bet is more about fading Tybura than anything else. He’s lost 4 of his last 6 fights and his only wins during that stretch were against Stefan Struve and Sergey Spivak. He hasn’t been the same fighter ever since he was KO’d by Derrick Lewis in a fight he was dominating. Grishin on the other hand has only lost 1 of his last 23 fights dating back to 2011. He’s the better striker and will be at an advantage for as long as the fight plays out on the feet. Another plus is that Tybura isn’t a huge heavyweight so the move up in weight class shouldn’t be much of a disadvantage for Grishin.
Alexander Volkanovski over Max Holloway & Calvin Kattar over Dan Ige parlay (5 units +100 *MAX BET*) Bet was placed on 7/9/20.
Max Holloway is only 28 years old and is arguably the greatest featherweight of all time. Sadly, I believe his better days have already passed him by. It appears the loss against Poirier took something out of him. Now he’s getting a chance to avenge his loss and win back his title against Volkanovski. I just don’t see it happening. Alexander Volkanovski is a wrecking ball. He’s the faster, stronger, striker between the two. He also has cardio for days. As long as Max continues to absorb the amount of damage he usually takes, Volkanovski will win again. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up finishing Holloway this time around.
Calvin Kattar is on the verge of becoming a star in the featherweight division. He easily has the best boxing skills in the division and possibly in all of the UFC. Dan Ige is no slouch himself but this is a bad matchup for him. Ige likes to press forward and bang but that’s not going to work for him in this matchup. Kattar is the better striker and will make Ige pay on the feet. Ige’s last loss was against Julio Arce who outboxed him and Kattar is much better than Arce. Ige is the better grappler but will have a hard time taking Kattar down. If he can’t get the fight to the ground he’s going to pieced up and possibly finished.
Jose Aldo over Petr Yan (1 unit +205) Bet was placed on 7/11/20.
Petr Yan is all the rage right now in the UFC’s bantamweight division. He’s 6-0 in his UFC career and has been given a shot at the title in just 2 years. A lot of capper’s are predicting a late stoppage for Yan because of his power and relentless pace. He very well may stop Aldo and win the title but I’m not there yet. While he’s 14-1 and undefeated in his UFC career, he’s lacking a signature win. When a fighter is fighting for a title and doesn’t have a signature win (against a top 3 opponent) on his record the alarm bells go off. His best win is against Jimmie Rivera and he was losing a good portion of that fight. He was dropped by John Dodson 3 fights ago. Jose Aldo is on another level compared to those guys. He’s a former champion with multiple signature wins in his career and has fought the best of the best. More importantly he hasn’t fallen off a cliff yet. He was very competitive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes. Many believe he should’ve won that fight. Jose Aldo at 33 years old is still a huge step up in competition for Yan. He tends to get hit fairly easy and Aldo still carries the power to finish him. Getting a fighter of Aldo’s caliber at 2-1 against an unproven fighter on this level is well worth the risk.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
