We had a losing night of betting for UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Till. Our bets ended up going 1-3 on the night for a total loss of 2.57 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +20.77 units with an overall ROI of 12%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 28%.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Till (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Francisco Trinaldo (+1.43 units)
We hit our bet on the veteran Trinaldo going against the UFC debuting Jai Herbert. Going into the fight we felt Trinaldo had just too much experience for Herbert to deal with. Herbert gave a good account of himself and actually seemed to have the fight going his way heading into the final round. But Trinaldo was able to clip him with a huge shot to the forehead which ended the fight even though referee Herb Dean was slow to stop it.
Losing Bets
Movsar Evloev & Marina Rodriguez parlay (-2 units)
Evloev came through and started the parlay off right by winning a unanimous decision over Mike Grundy. Grundy won the 1st round and had Evloev in trouble coming close to submitting him in that round. But the younger Evloev was more active and landed to more meaningful shots throughout the fight to get the decision.
Marina Rodriguez unfortunately wasn’t able to bring the parlay home, losing a close split decision to Carla Esparza. She was much the better striker on the feet like we expected but her lack of ground game cost her the fight. Esparza was able to take her down with ease multiple times and accumulate a lot of control time. We knew she would take her down but we thought Rodriguez would do a better job of getting up quicker and that just wasn’t the case.
Peter Sobotta (-1 unit)
This was hands down the worst bet of the night we made even at dog odds. We thought Sobotta would be more active on the feet and dangerous if the fight hit the ground. He never showed up for the fight. Oliveira controlled the fight from distance landing numerous body kicks throughout and Sobotta had nothing in return. “Cowboy” easily won a unanimous decision. Sobotta has since called it a career and retired from MMA after the lopsided loss.
Bethe Corriea (-1 unit)
The mistake made here was believing that Correia’s experience was going to trump Kianzad’s talent. Pannie was the sharper, more active fighter and easily won a unanimous decision. Bethe was known for being in dirty, close, fights but Kianzad wasn’t having any of it. Corriea looked every bit of her 37 years of age and will be difficult to back against basically anybody moving forward.
UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs Brunson (PLAYS)
Joanne Calderwood over Jennifer Maia -150 (3 units) Bet was placed on 7/29/20.
Joanne Calderwood was next in line to fight for the UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship against Valentina Shevchenko. Unfortunately for her Shevchenko got hurt and needed to pull out of the fight. Now she finds herself stepping in on short notice to fight Jennifer Maia seemingly putting her title shot at risk.
Calderwood comes into this fight a winner of 3 of her last 4 fights. She’s brings a high output fighting style with an emphasis on leg kicks. Maia is a good fighter and should try and slow the fight down making it a tough, dirty one. But in the end Calderwood should do enough to get the victory and that title shot after all against Shevchenko.
Chris Gutierrez over Cody Durden -345 (3 units) Bet was placed on 7/29/20
This was supposed to be a 2 leg parlay with Ray Borg but became a straight bet when Borg dropped out. Gutierrez is 3-1 in the UFC and is 15-3 overall. He has excellent striking and is approaching his fighting prime right now. He’s faced some good opposition along the way.
Cody Durden on the other hand is making his UFC debut coming in from the lower level regional scene. He’s coming to the UFC on a 7 fight win streak but who’s he beaten? We generally fade debuting UFC fighters, especially ones with no experience against legit competition. Durden will really have to be a special talent to get the win here.
Kevin Holland over Trevin Giles -210 (2 units) Bet was placed on 7/29/20
This also was supposed to be a 2 leg parlay with Markus Perez but became a straight bet when his fight was cancelled. Holland is very talented but sometimes doesn’t show the best fight IQ. He’s been in there with some good names and was the last fighter to beat the highly touted Geoff Neal.
Trevin Giles has also beaten some quality opponents including Brendan Allen and Ryan Spann. He doesn’t seem to be the same fighter however since he took time off to become a police officer. Since he came back he’s gone 1-2 with his only victory being a controversial decision. Holland is the more talented fighter in the better form and should get the victory here.
Randy Brown over Vicente Luque +180 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 7/31/20
Randy Brown sadly is known for getting knocked out by Niko Price while being in the normally dominant top position. Aside from that he’s a talented fighter with an unknown ceiling. He’s well rounded and has good size. He enters this fight coming off of 2 impressive stoppage victories.
Vicente Luque is as tough as they come and is just a step below being elite. He’s also very well rounded and high output. The major problem with Luque is the fact that he absorbs a lot of damage in every fight. He seems to receive just as much damage as he gives. You can only fight like that for so long before it comes back to bite you. We’re betting that this is the fight where it bites Luque.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
