When it rains it pours. Unfortunately we had another losing night of betting for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Oleinik. Our bets ended up going 0-4 on the night for a total loss of 8 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +8.77 units with an overall ROI of 5%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 15%.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Oleinik (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Sadly there were no winning bets for this past card. We got reverse swept and even lost a late parlay for 1 additional unit that wasn’t part of last weeks breakdown. The good thing about MMA however is there’s a card almost every week so we get a chance to redeem ourselves rather quickly.
Losing Bets
Laureano Staropoli (-2 units)
We felt Staropoli would be able to outpoint Means on the feet and that just wasn’t the case. Even though Means had recently shown a propensity to get hit often he was able to use his experience to grind out a unanimous decision over Staropoli. Our error was believing Staropoli was better than he really is and we didn’t pay enough attention to the abundance of UFC experience Means had.
Scott Holtzman (-1 unit)
This losing bet even looks worse given the fact that Holtzman got KO’d in round 1 while never being competitive. Going into the fight we felt Holtzman had a good chance because of his cardio and durability. The truth of the matter is Dariush was the more talented fighter by far and had the big win experience to back it up. Sometimes you take a stab in an underdog and they just get blown out of the water. This was one of those times.
Maki Pitolo (-1 unit)
This was another losing bet on a fighter who wasn’t competitive while losing in round 1. Going into the fight we felt Pitolo was a much better fighter at middleweight since he didn’t have to cut the extra 15 pounds to get to the welterweight limit. It didn’t matter however because Stewart was the more experienced UFC fighter and was able to capture the 1st submission victory of his career.
Omari Akhmedov (-3 units)
Our final losing bet of the evening came when Akhmedov lost a unanimous decision to Weidman. Going into the fight we felt Akhmedov was underrated and that Weidman was washed. It came down to who had the better cardio and in the end Weidman had the better gas tank. He fought a smart fight by having a grapple heavy approach which ended up tiring Akhmedov. Even with the victory Weidman still looks vulnerable and should get exposed with the slightest step up in competition.
UFC 252: Miocic vs Cormier 3 (PLAYS)
Jim Miller over Vinc Pichel +112 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/15/20.
This is a battle between two fighters over 35 years of age. The difference is one fighter has 7 UFC fights under his belt while the other has 35 UFC fights on his record. And the fighter with the 35 UFC fights is actually the younger fighter.
Jim Miller is a tough veteran fighter with an exceptional submission game. He does have 13 losses in the UFC but all of those have come against legit competition. Most of the people he’s lost to were ranked fighters. His opponent Pichel doesn’t fit that mold.
Vinc Pichel has only had 7 fights in the last 8 years. He doesn’t have the experience that Miller does in general or against excellent competition. They both share a common opponent in their last fights – Roosevelt Roberts. While Pichel won a unanimous decision over Roberts, Miller was able to submit him in round 1.
John Dodson over Merab Dvalishvili +225 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/15/20.
Merab Dvalishvili has lived up to his nickname of “The Machine” during his UFC career. He arguably should be undefeated in the UFC if not for some bad judging and a controversial late stoppage. Wrestling is his bread and butter and if you can’t stop it he’s going to grind you out. Styles make fights however and his opponent brings a unique style to this fight.
John Dodson is a UFC veteran who spent most of his career in the flyweight division. He’s known for his speed, power, and take down defense. In this matchup he will have a big advantage on the feet as long as the fight stays standing. Dodson has shown the ability to get back up quickly after being taken down and Dvalishvili doesn’t have the greatest grappling control game. If Dvalishvili can’t hold down Dodson for long periods of time then he most likely will lose the striking battle and a decision.
Daniel Pineda over Herbert Burns +235 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/15/20.
Herbert Burns has looked impressive in his 2 UFC fights, winning both by stoppage. He’s the younger brother of welterweight contender Gilbert Burns. While both of his wins in the UFC have been impressive, his quality of opposition hasn’t been. His 1st win came against a debuting fighter and his 2nd came against a fighter who had one foot out the door.
Daniel Pineda returns to the UFC for the 1st time in over 6 years. He has 7 UFC fights under his belt occurring between 2012-2014.
Pineda is very well rounded and has looked good in his last few fights. He did serve a suspension for use of PED’s recently however. Pineda is the superior striker here and is well versed if the fight hits the ground. The combination of the Burns last name and the 2 stoppage victories has this line too inflated.
Marlon Vera over Sean O’Malley LIVE BET after round 1 (1 unit) Bet will be placed on 8/15/20.
We’re going to bet this fight differently than the norm for a couple of reasons. The 1st reason is because Vera is a notorious slow starter. So if he starts off slow and gets finished we actually save money. If he starts off slow and losses round 1 then his odds will jump up significantly in our favor. For those reasons we’ll be betting this fight that way. The only risk is if Vera finishes O’Malley in round 1 which is unlikely.
Sean O’Malley is the darling of the UFC at the moment. He’s undefeated at 12-0 and has looked unstoppable in his last 2 fights. This will be a big step up in competition for him going against the veteran Vera. We seen this scenario play out recently when Edmen Shahbazyan fought Derek Brunson. Shahbazyan was undefeated and looked unstoppable going into the fight but the step up in competition proved to be too much.
Marlon Vera is only 27 years old but has 14 UFC fights on his record. He comes into this fight a winner of 5 of his last 6 fights. Vera is a notorious slow starter (hence the live bet after round 1) but is known to come on later in fights. He’s very well rounded and will hold the advantage over O’Malley if the fight hits the ground. O’Malley is extremely talented but if he’s not ready for this level of competition, Vera will make him pay and get the victory.
Daniel Cormier over Stipe Miocic -110 (2 units)
Bet was placed on 8/15/20.
The winner of this fight will be universally recognized as the greatest UFC heavyweight ever. This will be the 3rd meeting between the 2 with each fighter winning one fight a piece. Daniel Cormier is on record as saying this will be his last fight win or lose and will retire afterwards.
These 2 fighters have fought a total of nearly 5 rounds between both fights. And Cormier was the better fighter in 4 of those 5 rounds. He scored the 1st round knockout in the 1st fight. Then he jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the rematch before Miocic began working the body causing Cormier to tire and get stopped in round 4.
We have the advantage of seeing how this fight played out twice and Cormier was the overall dominant fighter despite only being 1-1 against Miocic. He wants to win this fight and be one of the very few fighters to walk away on top. He’s coming into this fight motivated and focused. The proof is that he’s in excellent shape and he realizes the errors he made in the rematch. All systems are go for Cormier to win the trilogy and retire as the heavyweight G.O.A.T.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
