We got back on the winning track for UFC 253. Our bets ended up going 3-1 on the night for a total profit of 2.50 units. Our max bets are now 6-2 all time. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +9.15 units with an overall ROI of 4%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 11%.
UFC 253: Adesanya vs Costa (RESULTS)
Winning bets
Israel Adesanya (+2.50 units)
We felt strongly that Adesanya was going to win this fight. That’s why we max bet him and he didn’t disappoint. Costa was unable to do anything except stand around and get his leg chopped down. By the time he was close enough to engage Adesanya landed a clean shot to his ear which dropped him. He proceeded to jump on top and get the 2nd round TKO finish shortly after.
Hakeem Dawodu (+1 unit)
This was a close fight and the odds reflected it. Tukhugov started off fast by winning the 1st round. The 2nd round was also close but Dawodu got the nod as his striking was starting to get on track. Tukhugov either was gassed or thought he banked the first 2 rounds because he offered very little in round 3. Dawodu was awarded the split decision victory.
Brandon Royval (+2 units)
We took a stab on Royval here and he didn’t disappoint. Going into the fight we felt his best chance at victory would be by submission and that’s what happened. However we were surprised by the relentless pace he put on Kara-France. He survived a knockdown and was able to get one of his own shortly after. Royval is an exciting flyweight and is already scheduled for a title eliminator fight against Brandon Moreno next month.
Losing bets
Brad Riddell, Dominick Reyes, Ketlen Viera parlay (-3 units)
Once again we came up short by 1 fight on a chalk parlay. Riddell did his part and won a closely contested fight. Viera also was able to get the victory in a close fight. The parlay died when Blachowicz was able to pull off the surprise victory over Reyes in round 2. Blachowicz took the fight to Reyes and Reyes offered little resistance. Our read was off thinking that Reyes would be too athletic for Blachowicz to handle.
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana (PLAYS)
Germaine de Randamie over Julianna Peña -150 (3 units) Bet was placed on 10/2/20.
The breakdown here is simple. For Peña to win she has to take the fight to the ground as her striking is very suspect. For de Randamie to win she has to keep the fight standing where she has an enormous striking edge.
We see the fight taking place on the feet where de Randamie has the clear advantage. Peña will have a hard time getting the fight to the ground and will take lots of damage trying to get the fight there. De Randamie should at least coast to a unanimous decision with a KO / TKO being a reasonable possibility.
Charles Jourdain ITD over Joshua Culibao -122 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/2/20.
We don’t normally like to bet on props but this looks like a good spot for an inside the distance bet. This is a mismatch on paper, hence the wide line. Jourdain is better everywhere the fight takes place. He also has the advantages in experience and level of competition.
Culibao honestly isn’t UFC caliber and is only here because he filled in on short notice in his last fight and was undefeated at the time. Jourdain is an explosive fighter and it should only be a matter of time before he lands something big and takes Culibao out.
Kyler Phillips ITD over Cameron Else -125 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/20/20.
Once again we find ourselves playing a prop bet under similar circumstances. This also appears to be a mismatch with the odds saying as much. Phillips is a legit UFC caliber fighter, Else is not.
He’s only here because he’s stepping in on short notice. The only thing he has going for him is experience but that was against suspect competition in the European regional scene. Phillips is too talented to not be able to finish a fighter of Else’s caliber.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
