We had a small losing week last week. Our bets ended up going 2-5 on the night for a total loss of 0.8 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +10.15 units with an overall ROI of 4%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 13%.
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana (RESULTS)
Winning bets
Chris Daukaus (+2.20 units)
Coming into the fight we felt strongly about Daukaus being the better boxer and he didn’t disappoint. He was able to land a clean left and followed it up with a right that grazed Nascimento’s head dropping him. While on the ground Daukaus landed heavy ground and pound. Nascimento managed to get back to his feet only to get dropped and finished shortly after.
Ilia Topuria (+1.50 units)
Topuria looked like the real deal in his UFC debut getting the unanimous decision victory over Youssef Zalal. He implemented his ground game and put Zalal in several close submission attempts. To Zalal’s credit he was able to survive every one of them but because he had to defend so many he couldn’t get his offense going.
Losing bets
Marlon Moraes (-2 units) straight bet & (-0.5 units) ITD
This was the only bet on the night where our read was completely wrong. We made the mistake of putting too much weight into Moraes’ experience and dismissed Sandhagen’s talent and output. Sandhagen pressured Moraes and was able to inflict damage to Moraes’ orbital in round 1. He continued to pressure Moraes before dropping and ultimately finishing him in round 2.
Tony Kelley ITD (-0.5 units)
We took a chance on Kelley inside the distance and came up a little short. He had 3 chances to finish the fight, once in each round. Kelley had a combination triangle / armbar at the end of round 1 and AlQaisi somehow managed to survive. Then he landed a clean knee to the face which wobbled AlQaisi in round 2 but couldn’t finish him. Finally he landed another powerful knee to the face which hurt AlQaisi in round 3 but once again couldn’t finish him.
Ilia Topuria ITD (-0.5 units)
As stated earlier Topuria put Zalal in many close submission attempts but couldn’t finish him. Zalal is crafty and found a way to get out of each and every submission attempt. After seeing how the fight played out we have no regrets taking a stab on Topuria inside the distance.
Edson Barboza ITD (-1 unit)
Once again we came up on the short end of the stick on another inside the distance bet here. Barboza was able to keep the fight standing for the most part and was able to hurt Amirkhani several times. He ended up scoring two knockdowns but wasn’t able to finish either time. Barboza even had a chance to submit Amirkhani at one point but came up short.
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs Korean Zombie (PLAYS)
Korean Zombie over Brian Ortega 5
units (***MAX BET***) & ITD +100 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/15/20.
Brian Ortega is returning after nearly a 2 year absence from the octagon. In his last fight he took an epic beating from then champion Max Holloway. Ortega showed his toughness by absorbing nearly 300 significant strikes. He has a history of getting beaten to the punch, falling behind on the scorecards, and needing some late fight magic to pull out the victory. That fight style is a recipe for disaster against someone of the caliber of The Korean Zombie.
The Korean Zombie is very well rounded and is in the best form of his career. He’s a miracle last second Yair Rodriguez KO away from being on an impressive 4 fight win streak since returning to the octagon from serving military service. Zombie can absorb punches, has excellent cardio, and is one of if not the hardest puncher at 145lbs.
Unless Ortega was able to dramatically improve his striking defense in his near 2 year layoff, this is a bad matchup for him. As stated earlier Zombie hits hard and he should be able to put Ortega in serious danger if able to land just a fraction of what Max landed on him. Another thing working against Ortega is this is his 1st fight back after losing a title fight.
There’s a consistent pattern of fighters losing their 1st fight back after losing their chance at a title.
James Krause over Claudio Silva 2 units (-160)
Bet was placed on 10/15/20.
James Krause is stepping in on short notice again taking on Claudio Silva. This time it’s not on 1 day notice and not up a weight class. Krause was on a nice little win streak heading into his last fight against Trevin Giles. Even with the short notice and being up a weight class he still almost won a close split decision.
Claudio Silva is on an amazing 14 fight win streak. The problem is he’s very inactive and is now 38 years old. His gas tank is questionable and Krause will look to test it. Silva wants to get the fight to the ground but Krause is well versed there as well. We see Krause taking the fight to Silva and dragging it out. If this happens he should either win a decision or possibly finish a tired Silva.
Modestas Bukauskas over Jimmy Crute +280 (1 unit) & ITD +400 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/15/20.
This is a fight between 2 up and coming light heavyweights. Jimmy Crute is the more proven UFC fighter with a 3-1 record in the promotion. He’s beaten some recognizable names like Sam Alvey, Paul Craig, and most recently Michal Oleksiejczuk.
Modestas Bukauskas is 1-0 in the UFC and is a bit of a wildcard in the light heavyweight division. He has good striking and is big for the division. If and when the fight hits the ground he will be at a disadvantage against Crute because Crute loves to grapple. The line feels very wide however and we can see a scenario where Crute could get clipped and or gas later in the fight. Those high dog odds make the reward worth the risk.
Jonathan Martinez over Thomas Almeida +110 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/15/20.
This is a high variance, close fight on paper. Almeida is making his return to the octagon after nearly a 3 year absence. He’s the more proven commodity with fights against some of the best fighters the UFC has to offer. Almeida is a devastating striker who welcomes a slug fest. The problem for him is he’s taken a lot of damage in his career and tends to get hurt in every fight.
Jonathan Martinez isn’t a huge puncher but he’s explosive and is improving with every fight. He’s the type of fighter who can hurt and finish Almeida. We don’t know how Almeida is going to look after such a long layoff. Odds are he still has that defensive weakness that allows him to get hurt. This fight can go either way so give us the more active, improving fighter at small dog odds.
Jamie Mullarkey over Fares Ziam -140 (2 units) Bet was placed on 10/15/20.
Jamie Mullarkey is a pressure fighter who showed off his skills in his UFC debut against Brad Riddell. He lost a unanimous decision but was competitive and Riddell is an up and coming prospect.
Fares Ziam also lost his UFC debut but he wasn’t nearly as competitive. He allowed Don Madge to control him against the octagon cage for a good portion of a boring fight. We feel Mullarkey’s pressure should lead him to victory.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
