Unfortunately we had another losing night of bets for last weeks card. Our bets ended up going 1-5 on the night for a total loss of 2.39 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +3.01 units with an overall ROI of 1%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 6%.
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs Dos Anjos (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Rafael Dos Anjos (+1.11 units)
Our only winner from last week was a bet on Rafael Dos Anjos. He had the advantage of having a full training camp and looked good dropping back down to lightweight. Paul Felder took the fight on 5 days notice so he was at a major disadvantage and it showed. We did end up losing 0.5 units on Dos Anjos inside the distance as Felder proved once again he’s tough to finish.
Losing bets
Geraldo de Freitas & ITD (-1.5 units)
We took a stab on the slight dog and it didn’t pan out. This was a close fight but one that was ultimately decided by Gravely’s wrestling. De Freitas proved to be the better striker but Gravely was able to get a timely takedown every time he needed to and ultimately got the decision victory.
Brendan Allen & ITD (-1.5 units)
We said last week that whoever could dictate where the fight will play out will win the fight. Unfortunately for us that was Strickland as he kept the fight standing and ultimately got the TKO finish. Brendan Allen is the superior grappler but never tried to take the fight to the ground. Instead he decided to strike with the better striker in Strickland and paid for it. As the saying goes – “If you play stupid games you win stupid prizes.”
We had a bet on Louis Smolka last week that was refunded when his fight against Jose Quiñonez was cancelled last second.
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs Perez (PLAYS)
Alan Jouban over Jared Gooden -140 (1 unit) & ITD +225 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/19/20.
This is a classic matchup between the UFC veteran versus the UFC debutant. Alan Jouban appears to be near the end of his fighting career at 38 years old. He’s by far the better technical striker and has tons of UFC experience.
Jared Gooden on the other hand is making his UFC debut after fighting on the lower regional scene. He has good power but his level of competition is questionable. We’re going to take the established UFC fighter in Jouban to get the job done with a chance of doing so inside the distance.
Ariane Lipski over Antonina Shevchenko +130 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 11/19/20.
This fight is similar to the Allen fight last week in that the winner will be determined by where the fight takes place. Shevchenko is the better technical striker and will win if the fight stays standing. She is however a liability on the ground as she’s been dominated there in her losses.
Ariane Lipski is a good striker herself but she’s not on Shevchenko’s level. She would be wise to try and get the fight to the ground where Shevchenko has looked like a fish out of water. If she can get the fight to the ground she most likely wins by decision or finish. However if the fight plays out on the feet Shevchenko will most likely win by decision or finish.
Brandon Moreno over Brandon Royval -180 (3 units) Bet was placed on 11/19/20.
The winner of this fight most likely will fight for the flyweight title in their next fight. Brandon Moreno has improved greatly as a fighter during his 2nd stint in the UFC. He’s going to be the faster, more technical fighter in this matchup.
Brandon Royval has created some buzz by getting 2 submissions in his first 2 UFC fights. He’s an exciting fighter with an aggressive fighting style. The problem he will have is that Moreno is better than him everywhere. When the fight hits the ground he won’t have the big grappling advantage like he’s had in his previous 2 fights. We feel Moreno will get the victory most like by decision in what should be a fight of the night contender.
Mike Perry over Tim Means -150 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 11/19/20.
Tim Means is the more technical striker in this matchup. If the fight hits the ground he’ll have the better BJJ as well. The problem he has is that his chin has given out in his last 2 losses. That’s a concern with someone who packs the power like Mike Perry does.
Mike Perry is a loose cannon inside and outside the octagon. He packs big power and welcomes a war on the feet. Means would be wise to try and pick Perry apart from distance. However he does have a history of being in slugfests and if that happens Perry most likely will turn his lights out.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
