We had another small losing night of bets for last weeks card. Our bets ended up going 2-3 on the night for a total loss of 0.12 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +2.89 units with an overall ROI of 1%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 6%.
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs Perez (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Alan Jouban (+0.21 units)
We took the much more UFC experienced Alan Jouban over newcomer Jared Gooden and he got the job done. Even though Jouban is seemingly nearing the end of his career he was able to outpoint the debuting Gooden. Jouban was a few seconds away from getting the submission victory but Gooden was able to get saved by the bell. Because of that we did end up losing 0.5 units on our Jouban inside the distance bet.
Brandon Moreno (+1.67 units)
Brandon Moreno proved to be too much for the surging Brandon Royval. Our thoughts came to fruition as Moreno proved to be the better fighter everywhere. Royval was finished at the end of round 1 after suffering a shoulder separation injury. His stock stays high however while Moreno will fight for the title in a few weeks.
Losing bets
Ariane Lipski (-1 unit)
Sometimes our reads are completely off and this was one of those times. We felt Lipski’s best path to victory would be to take the fight to the ground to avoid Shevchenko’s striking. The fight did play out mostly on the ground but it was because Shevchenko took it there, not Lipski. She surprisingly dominated Lipski on the ground ultimately stopping her by TKO in round 2.
Mike Perry (-1 unit)
As the saying goes “If you play with fire you get burned.” Betting on Mike Perry is playing with fire. He came into the fight missing weight and missing a legitimate corner. Somehow we were still convinced he would be able to defeat Tim Means. Perry took round 1 with a grapple heavy game plan but wasn’t active enough in the last 2 rounds. Perry can’t be trusted to bet on in the future, regardless of his opponent.
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs Clark (PLAYS)
Anthony Smith & Devin Clark fight doesn’t go the distance -118 (5 units) ***MAX BET*** Bet was placed on 11/27/20.
This fight was originally scheduled for 3 rounds and was the co-main event. It became the 5 round main event on 1 day notice when Curtis Blaydes tested positive for Covid-19. Neither fighter trained for 5 rounds so there’s a good chance their cardio will hit a wall at some point in the fight.
The reason we placed a max bet on it was because of the generous line we were able to get. The -118 line was over 50 cents better than the rest of the market as of the time of the bet. It’s not a lock that the fight will end inside the distance but getting that good of a line is well worth the risk.
Ashlee Evans-Smith over Norma Dumont -130 (2 units) & by TKO / KO +700 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/27/20.
Ashlee Evans-Smith is an average at best fighter with a 6-4 record. She does have 7 fights in the UFC however so she is battle tested against some of the best fighters in the world. Evans-Smith has a wrestling base but likes to strike with good output.
Norma Dumont is 4-1 and is coming off a featherweight loss against Megan Anderson in her UFC debut. Dumont is a good striker but is relatively inexperienced in mma. Also she missed weight for this fight so it remains to be seen what kind of shape she’ll be in. We’re going with the more UFC experienced Evans-Smith for the victory here.
Su Mudaerji over Malcolm Gordon by TKO / KO +160 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/27/20.
This is another classic striker vs grappler matchup. Su Madaerji holds a big advantage on the feet against Malcolm Gordon. He will look to keep the fight standing where he has 10 finishes on his record. Gordon has been finished on the feet in 3 of his 4 losses. If the fight plays out on the feet Mudaerji has a good shot to get another TKO / KO finish.
Spike Carlyle over Bill Algeo ITD +110 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/27/20.
This is going to be a contender for fight of the night. Bill Algeo is coming off a fight of the night performance in his recent loss to Ricardo Llamas. He’s a high output, action fighter but tends to get hit clean often. Spike Carlyle is strong for the division and is ultra aggressive. The feeling here is that Spike catches him at some point and proceeds to finish the durable Algeo.
Miguel Baeza over Takashi Sato ITD +130 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/27/20.
Miguel Baeza is an undefeated prospect making his 3rd UFC appearance. He’s 9-0 and has only gone to decision twice in his career. Baeza is well rounded as he’s an excellent striker and has a BJJ black belt in his back pocket. Takashi Sato is 16-3 and is a good striker himself. He has been finished in all 3 of his losses however. The feeling here is Baeza hurts him at some point and proceeds to finish him for the victory.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
