The rough start to 2021 continues. The night started off perfect, however being wrong on the last 2 fights caused us to have another losing night. There have been 3 events so far and we are -7.28 units year to date. Our bets ended up going 3-2 for a total loss of 1.16 units for UFC 257. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2 (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Makhmud Muradov (+1.33 units)
This fight played out on the feet where Muradov had the advantage. He was able to consistently tag Sanchez who would’ve been better served selling out to get the fight to the ground. Instead he accumulated damage throughout the course of the fight and ultimately got stopped in round 3.
Brad Tavares by decision (+1.60 units)
Just like the Muradov fight this one also played out on the feet. The difference was Carlos Jr tried his hardest to take the fight to the mat. However he was unsuccessful in doing so and was outpointed during the process. Our read was correct that Tavares could win by decision because he’s not much of a finisher.
Amir Albazi (+0.91 units)
This was a closely lined fight and we ended up being on the right side. Albazi was the more active of the 2 fighters and was able to get a unanimous decision victory. Zhumagulov is good but he didn’t produce enough output for the judges to give him the fight.
Losing Bets
Dan Hooker (-3 units)
Here’s where our night started to take a turn for the worst. We couldn’t have been more wrong about how we thought this fight would go. Hooker normally pressures forward and was getting backed up by Chandler from the very beginning. He started off too slow and it costed him dearly. Chandler was able to drop him early and the fight ended shortly after.
Movsar Evloev by decision & Conor McGregor ITD parlay (-2 units)
Movsar Evloev did his part in the parlay by winning by a split decision. It really should’ve been by unanimous decision. Evloev did get caught in a couple of close guillotine submission attempts by Lentz but managed to escape. That’s back to back fights where Evloev was close to being submitted. It’s only a matter of time before he gets subbed by better competition.
Our winning night was riding on Conor to win inside the distance. We felt Conor winning a decision was very unlikely so he’d either win ITD or lose ITD. He started off good by taking round 1 and hurting Poirier along the way. But Poirier is as game as they come and implemented the perfect game plan by utilizing his calf kicks. Once Conor had his mobility compromised Poirier was able to hurt, drop, and finish him.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Volkov (PLAYS)
Alistair Overeem over Alexander Volkov +160 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/4/21.
Alexander Volkov is knocking on the door of becoming a top 5 ranked heavyweight in the UFC. He’s tall with high output and is in his fighting prime at age 32. For being a heavyweight however he lacks that one punch power that can end a fight. His poor takedown defense could come into play for this fight. Also while he’s 6-2 in the UFC, he lacks an eye opening win. His best win was against Fabricio Werdum and that was shortly before he left the UFC.
Alistair Overeem is on record saying he’s retiring after his next loss which normally isn’t a good sign. Being 40 years old Overeem has has accomplished a ton in MMA and literally is one of the greatest heavyweights of all time. He comes into this fight a winner of 4 of his last 5 fights and one bad lapse of judgement cost him from being a winner of 5 straight.
Since switching training camps a few fights ago Overeem has implemented more of a grappling game plan. We see that being the case here which would give him his easiest path to victory. At the same time he’s still dangerous on the feet and could finish Volkov in a moments notice.
Manel Kape over Alexandre Pantoja +110 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/4/21.
Alexandre Pantoja is an elite fighter in the flyweight division. He’s well rounded with good striking and excellent BJJ. We feel the problem he’ll have in this matchup is his recent willingness to have a slugfest on the feet. He could win that style of fight but it plays into his opponents hands.
Manel Kape is making his much anticipated UFC debut. The UFC appears to think highly of him as he was the backup for the last flyweight title fight. His striking consists of both speed and power. We feel if the fight plays out on the feet Kape might be too much for Pantoja to handle. Anytime the fight hits the mat Kape will be at a major disadvantage.
Justin Jaynes over Devonte Smith +240 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/4/21.
Devonte Smith was on a fast track to stardom prior to his last fight against Khama Worthy. Unfortunately for him he was KO’d by Worthy in round 1 in what was an all time upset per the odds. He proceeded to take 2020 off due to injury. Now he’s back, but we have questions about his mindset.
Justin Jaynes won his UFC debut by 1st round TKO over Frank Camacho. He then proceeded to lose his next 2 fights against better competition. Jaynes should come forward and wing bombs in this fight. Smith has been surprised finished in his 2 losses. We’re going to take the chance that Jaynes can clip Smith and finish him as well.
Lara Procopio over Molly McCann +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/4/21.
Molly McCann has a 3-2 record within the UFC. She has a fan friendly style because of her willingness to slug it out on the feet. In doing so she does take a good amount of damage and by fights end it shows on her face.
Lara Procopio lost her UFC debut but she was impressive in defeat. She showed a relentless pace but she was slightly outgunned on the feet. If she’s able to duplicate a similar amount of output that alone should be enough to get her the victory here. She would also have an advantage over McCann if the fight hits the ground.
Seung Woo Choi over Youssef Zalal +200 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/4/21.
Youssef Zalal is a well rounded fighter who’s 3-1 in the UFC. His victories have come against bottom level competition however. When he got a step up in competition in his last fight he was dominated. So it’s hard to gauge just how good he really is.
Seung Woo Choi is 1-2 in the UFC and was given stiff competition in his 1st 2 fights. He was out-grappled by 2 of the better prospects in the division. Choi is a good stand up fighter and should hold an advantage on the feet over Zalal. Also Zalal doesn’t possess the same type of wrestling that gave Choi trouble in his 2 losses.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
