We’re coming off another winning night, a legitimate one this time. Our bets ended up going 3-1 for a total win of 5.15 units. Year to date we are down 1.78 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC 258: Usman vs Burns (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Julian Marquez & by sub (+5.68 units)
Winning these bets is what made our night. Going into the fight we felt that Marquez was the better fighter with a better body of work. Much to our surprise Pitolo implemented a wrestle heavy game plan which had him winning the fight until he didn’t. That game plan also caused him to gas and Marquez was able to get the Hail Mary submission victory with less than a minute left in the fight.
Belal Muhammad by decision (+0.72 units)
Muhammad turned out to be the better fighter. We pointed out how he had already beaten multiple fighters better than Lima over his career. He seemed to make a conscious effort to finish Lima. But like his track record indicated he wasn’t able to and we were able to cash on him by decision.
Losing Bets
Kamaru Usman by decision (-1 unit)
This was our only losing bet on the night. Looking back it wasn’t a good bet based on Burns’ limited experience in 5 round fights. We knew right away that this fight was destined to end inside the distance. Burns started off fast and started to gas even faster. Usman’s jab was the difference as Burns couldn’t get out of the way of it.
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis (PLAYS)
Curtis Blaydes over Derrick Lewis by KO +120 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/19/21.
It appears Lewis’ only path to victory is by KO. Him winning by sub or by 5 round decision seems very unlikely. Conversely Blaydes also appears to have a path to victory by KO as well. He has the cardio to grind on Lewis for 5 rounds but Lewis lasting that long seems very unlikely. Hence we feel Blaydes can avoid getting KO’d and will wear out Lewis along the way leading to a stoppage victory at plus odds.
Drakkar Klose over Luis Peña -182 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/19/21.
Klose is flat out a better fighter than Peña at this point of their careers. He’s already beaten multiple fighters better than Peña and has been in higher profile fights. Peña came to the UFC undefeated but has gone 3-3 during his stay. He hasn’t lived up to his potential and we don’t see him getting the victory over Klose in this spot.
Eddie Wineland over John Castaneda +105 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/19/21.
This is a matchup between a grizzled veteran and the younger unproven fighter looking to make a name for himself. Wineland is coming off a devastating loss in his last fight against O’Malley. John Castaneda isn’t on O’Malley’s level. Typically Wineland only loses to legit fighters. We don’t feel Castaneda fits that mold so we expect Wineland to get the win in this spot at dog odds.
Jared Gordon over Danny Chavez +115 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/19/21.
This is another fight between a proven UFC veteran and an up and coming fighter. Gordon also typically loses to legit fighters. It remains to be seen if Chavez fits that mold. In general we prefer backing the more experienced UFC fighter and that’s the case here at dog odds.
Jamall Emmers over Chas Skelly by decision +125 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 2/19/21.
Chas Skelly typically wins his fights by submission and Emmers has only been subbed once. Emmers is the better fighter in this spot and should win. He’s not a big finisher and Skelly is fairly durable. The feeling here is that Emmers will do enough to outpoint Skelly and get the decision victory at plus money.
Jared Vanderaa over Sergey Spivak by decision +1100 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 2/19/21.
This bet is a complete roll of the dice to be honest. It has more to do with the great odds we’re getting more than anything else. Spivak has been to decision his last 2 fights. The odds that this fight goes to decision is nearly even money. We just need Vanderaa to do enough to win without finishing Spivak then we’ll cash a crazy lined prop bet.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
