Finally we were able to get back on the winning track. Our bets ended up going 4-1 last week for a total win of 3.37 units. Year to date we are down 11.99 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Holland (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Derek Brunson (1.75 units)
Our thoughts came to fruition with Brunson implementing a wrestle heavy game plan. It also helped that Holland seemed more concerned with chatting it up than actually wanting to win the fight. Brunson appears to be a fade candidate in the near future and Holland is going to be hard to trust moving forward.
Montel Jackson & Jesse Strader under 1.5 rounds (1 unit)
This turned out to be easy money as the fight ended within 2 minutes. Jackson was too much for the debuting Strader to handle and dropped him twice before the fight ended. Strader also took the fight on very short notice which typically means a questionable gas tank.
Macy Chiasson by decision (0.6 units)
Chiasson proved to be the bigger, better, fighter and she got the decision victory. She had Reneau hurt once or twice along the way. But Reneau is as durable as they come and was able to survive and make it to the end of the fight.
Adrian Yanez ITD (0.53 units)
The Yanez hype train chugs along as he was able to KO Lopez in round 3. His hand speed is some of the quickest in MMA and he was able to put away the durable Lopez with relative ease. Yanez is a young, exciting, prospect and brings a lot to the UFC’s stacked bantamweight division.
Losing Bets
Montel Jackson by sub (0.5 units)
As stated earlier Jackson was able to make quick work of Strader inside of 2 minutes. We took a stab that the preferred method of victory would be by submission. After the 1st knockdown Jackson did attempt to attack the neck of Strader for a quick second but he was able to scramble out of danger.
UFC 260: Miocic vs Ngannou 2 (PLAYS)
Francis Ngannou over Stipe Miocic by KO +105 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/25/21.
If you like Ngannou to win the rematch the only way to bet him would appear to be by KO. It’s unlikely that he wins a decision and even less likely that he wins by submission. With that being said we like Ngannou to win the rematch.
Francis Ngannou is 4-1 since his loss to Miocic with all his victories coming in the 1st round. With all those quick finishes, questions still remain about his cardio. For that reason we feel Ngannou will make a concerted effort to try an take Miocic out early.
Stipe is coming in lighter weight this time and one would think that would have a negative effect on his ability to take Ngannou down and control him on the mat. Also being lighter would appear to have a negative effect on his chin durability. We feel Ngannou is going to catch him at some point in the 1st half of the fight and become the new heavyweight champion.
Tyron Woodley over Vicente Luque +195 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/25/21.
Tyron Woodley has been completely dominated in his last 3 fights and appears to be on a drastic decline. But when you dig a little deeper there’s still hope for him in this matchup against Luque.
Those losses were against the cream of the crop in the welterweight division – Usman, Covington, and Burns. All of those fighters had excellent wrestling and good striking. Luque is an excellent striker but doesn’t have the same level of wrestling. Also the key difference is Luque is easy to hit and gets hit clean in basically every fight.
If Woodley has anything left he figures to show it in this matchup against Luque. When you factor in the sizeable step down in competition and Luque’s propensity for getting hit, Woodley should look much better in this spot. Luque is going to bring the fight to him giving Woodley an opportunity to turn back the clock and land a counter shot of significance. Give us Woodley in this spot at dog odds of nearly 2-1.
Sean O’Malley over Thomas Almeida by KO +120 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/25/21.
This fight appears to be fairly easy to break down. O’Malley should be able to win this fight most likely by KO as long as his legs hold up. In O’Malley’s loss against Vera and win against Soukhamthath, his leg was comprised. If his legs hold up in this fight he should be able to easily pick Almeida apart.
Thomas Almeida started off his career 20-0 and looked like the real deal. In the nearly 4 years since then he’s gone 1-4 and clearly isn’t the same fighter. While he still presses forward and puts a pace on people, he’s easy to hit and is sort of a human punching bag. O’Malley should be able to exploit this and with his clean technique and power, it’s difficult to see Almeida being able to survive and make it to the final horn. That’s assuming O’Malley’s leg issues don’t become a factor again.
Miranda Maverick over Gillian Robertson ITD +325 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/25/21.
Miranda Maverick has the look of a potential contender in the UFC’s Flyweight division. She was very impressive in her UFC debut winning via doctor stoppage. Maverick is well rounded and has a mean streak in her when she strikes. Her style is one that has given Robertson trouble in the past.
Gillian Robertson’s game plan is simple – get the fight to the mat and go for submissions. When she isn’t able to do that however she’s a liability on the feet as her striking is almost non existent. We feel Maverick is good enough on the ground to stay out of trouble and holds a huge advantage on the feet. If Robertson is unsuccessful at implementing her game plan we can see her checking out of the fight once Maverick begins to put it on her.
Khama Worthy over Jamie Mullarkey by decision +450 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/25/21.
Khama Worthy holds a big edge in experience in this spot. He’s been in good form lately winning 7 of 8 fights although he was finished in his last fight. Worthy is fast and that has translated to good power on occasion.
Jamie Mullarkey is tough but is 0-2 in the UFC. He’s a high output fighter but he’s easy to hit. We see Worthy as being the better fighter here. And while Worthy has shown the ability to finish people, Mullarkey is durable and can make it to the scorecards. If that’s the case then we give Worthy a good shot at winning a decision at very juicy plus odds.
Michal Oleksiejczuk over Modestas Bukauskas by KO +200 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/25/21.
Michal Oleksiejczuk started off his UFC career strong but has lost his last 2 fights. The common denominator in those 2 losses was he was facing excellent grapplers. Oleksiejczuk is an excellent striker but a liability on the ground.
It remains to be seen if Modestas Bukauskas is UFC level. Even though he holds a victory in the UFC he was steamrolled by Jimmy Crute on the feet and Crute is more known for his grappling. Bukauskas isn’t much of a grappler so we see this fight playing out on the feet. If that’s the case Oleksiejczuk is the better striker with more power which would leave an opening for a KO finish at 2-1 odds.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
