For the first time in a long time we had a (small) winning week. Our bets ended up going 3-3 for a total win of 0.11 units. Year to date we are down 19.73 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC 261: Usman vs Masvidal 2 (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Brendan Allen ITD & by sub (1.76 units)
Brendan Allen fought a smart game plan this time around. He made a conscious effort to take the fight to the ground and it paid off. It was only a matter of time until Allen found an opening and was able to submit Roberson at the end of round 1.
Valentina Schevchenko ITD (1.35 units)
Valentina Schevchenko completely dominated this fight, but not how we expected. We thought she’d be able to dominate on the feet but she decided to show off her ground game instead. She completely mauled Andrade on the ground forcing the ref to stop the fight in round 2.
Losing Bets
Anthony Smith & Jimmy Crute fight goes the distance (-1 unit)
This fight was fought at a pace where going to the scorecards was a possibility. Everything changed however once Smith was able to land a perfectly placed leg kick which hurt and dropped Crute. Crute was able to survive but his leg was done and the fight was called before the beginning of round 2.
Chris Weidman by decision (-1 unit)
This fight never had a chance to go to decision as it ended after the 1st strike thrown. Weidman literally snapped his leg in half after throwing an intense leg kick and the fight was quickly waved off.
Weili Zhang ITD (-1 unit)
We were correct in thinking the fight would end inside the distance. The problem is the wrong fighter won. We felt Zhang would be able to wear on Namajunas and finish her later in the fight. But what actually happened was Rose landed a devastating head kick and finished Zhang in round 1 when Rose was most dangerous.
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs Prochazka (PLAYS)
Jiri Prochazka over Dominick Reyes ITD +110 (3 units) Bet was placed on 4/30/21.
We are of the belief that Jiri Prochazka is a future world champion. He’s got the experience, power, and is approaching his fighting prime. We feel his flowing movements and power will ultimately be too much for Reyes to handle.
Reyes not that long ago was an undefeated prospect who arguably beat the great Jon Jones. He didn’t get the decision however and proceeded to get dominated in his next fight against Jan Blachowicz. Reyes is in the rare
position of losing 2 title fights in a row against different opponents.
History shows fighters perform poorly coming off a title fight loss and Reyes is coming off 2 title fight losses. He appears to have peaked against Jones and his undefeated aura of invincibility is long gone. We feel Prochazka will have a statement victory announcing his arrival in the light heavyweight title picture.
Sean Strickland over Krzysztof Jotko by decision +150 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 4/30/21.
This figures to be a stand up fight and Strickland is the better stand up fighter. He’s a good technical striker but doesn’t possess a lot of power. Strickland is capable of hurting and finishing Jotko but we feel that’s an unlikely outcome. What’s more likely is that he out volumes Jotko from the outside scoring enough points to get a decision victory.
Randa Markos over Luana Pinheiro +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 4/30/21.
This is a fight between a proven UFC veteran and a prospect coming off the Contender Series. Luana Pinheiro has been impressive in her short career but who has she been beating?
Randa Markos on the other hand has 16 UFC fights under her belt with some impressive victories along the way. She’s not in the best form currently but she’s been fighting top 10 quality opposition. Her job is most likely on the line here so we expect a good showing from her and we’re getting dog odds.
Poliana Botelho over Luana Carolina by KO +700 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 4/30/21.
It was less than 2 years ago that Botelho was a rising prospect who was favored over Cynthia Calvillo in their fight. She’s gone 1-2 since that time mostly because of her lack of a ground game. That shouldn’t be the case here as we expect this fight to play out on the feet.
Luana Carolina has a striking base and she’s not a very good striker. She has poor technique and leaves her chin up in the air. Botelho hits hard and has finished a few fights by KO. We’re willing to take a shot at that happening here at +700 odds.
Sam Hughes over Loma Lookboonmee +290 (1 unit). Bet was placed on 4/30/21.
Loma Lookboonmee is the superior striker here but this line appears to be too wide. She’s a one dimensional fighter with only 3 UFC fights. Sam Hughes is a more well rounded mma fighter on the other hand. She’s coming off a bad loss albeit a short notice one against UFC Strawweight mainstay Tecia Torres. Now she’s getting a full training camp and a major step down in competition at nearly 3-1 odds. Low level women’s mma fights shouldn’t have this wide of a line.
Felipe Colares over Luke Sanders by sub +450 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 4/30/21.
Luke Sanders is known for getting off to a hot start and getting subbed later in fights. It’s happened in 3 of his last 6 fights. He’s the better striker here but it’s hard to trust him because of his poor fight IQ.
Felipe Colares is durable and has several submission victories on his record. Most likely he’ll be outclassed on the feet but there’s a chance Sanders will make a mistake along the way. If that happens then the door opens for Colares to sub Sanders at +450 odds.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
