We’re coming off a 2nd straight winning week. Our bets ended up going 2-4 for a total win of 1.80 units. Year to date we are down 17.93 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC 261: Reyes vs Prochazka (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Jiri Prochazka ITD (3.30 units)
It turned out to be Prochazka’s coming out party like we anticipated. His pressure, movement, and power proved to be too much for a game Dominick Reyes to handle. Reyes did hurt Prochazka at one point but he couldn’t finish him.
Prochazka ended up winning with a highlight reel spinning elbow KO. He’s been so impressive in his 1st 2 UFC fights that Dana White is on record saying Prochazka will fight for the title in his next fight.
Sean Strickland by decision (1.50 units)
This fight played out just like we thought with Strickland winning by decision. He was the more active fighter scoring points with his crisp boxing. The fight played out on the feet the whole time and there was never a point where someone was close to being finished.
Losing Bets
Felipe Colares by submission (-0.5 units)
This fight played out how we thought it would. Sanders got off to a hot start and gassed later in the fight. Unfortunately for us Colares wasn’t able to sub him but did enough to get the win as an underdog. Sanders was released from the UFC earlier this week.
Poliana Botelho by KO (-0.5 units)
This turned out to be a bad bet as Botelho was never close to knocking out Carolina. The fight didn’t feature much action and went to decision. After starting off her UFC career 2-0 Botelho has now gone 1-3 in her last 4 fights.
Sam Hughes (-1 unit)
We took a shot on a big underdog and it didn’t pan out. Hughes was game but Lookboonmee’s volume and superior clinch work was too much for Hughes to overcome. Lookboonmee is a one dimensional stand up fighter and will be in trouble against a wrestling based fighter.
Randa Markos (-1 unit)
This is another pick that we were on the wrong side of. We felt Markos had a shot at winning with her wrestling. Pinheiro actually hip tossed Markos to the ground multiple times. It seemed like Pinheiro was well on her way to a victory when Markos got disqualified for throwing an illegal up kick.
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Waterson (PLAYS)
Marina Rodriguez over Michelle Waterson ITD +300 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/7/21.
Michelle Waterson was undersized for straw-weight and now she’s fighting at flyweight. When you look at her body of work in the UFC she doesn’t really have a signature victory. On top of that she’s now 35 years old and has been beat up in a few of her recent fights.
Marina Rodriguez is naturally the bigger fighter and is also moving up a weight class. She’s known for her striking and is coming off an impressive KO of the once highly regarded Amanda Ribas. We feel that Rodriguez’s size and power will ultimately be too much for Waterson to handle. She’ll be game for the duration of the fight but we feel there’s a good chance this fight won’t make it to the scorecards.
Gregor Gillespie over Diego Ferreira by decision +140 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/7/21.
Gregor Gillespie is known for his wrestling base and is coming off a devastating KO loss to Kevin Lee in his last fight. Diego Ferreira has decent striking and excellent BJJ but doesn’t have great takedown defense. We feel Gillespie will go back to his bread and butter and use his wrestling to grind out a decision victory in this spot.
Angela Hill over Amanda Ribas by decision +300 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/7/21.
Amanda Ribas was exposed in her last fight against Marina Rodriguez. Her status as a potential title challenger came crashing down. Angela Hill doesn’t possess KO power but she’s very active. If Hill is able to keep the fight standing then she’ll be the better striker with more output. We feel the fight will play out on the feet and if so Hill will have a great chance of getting a decision victory.
Kyle Daukaus over Phil Hawes by sub +400 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/7/21.
This has the feel of a fight that will end inside the distance. It feels like Hawes will either win by KO early or get finished later in the fight. We’re feeling that the latter will occur.
Hawes is a known gasser and Daukaus has excellent cardio. If Daukaus can take Hawes into deep waters then he can finish a tired Hawes. Daukaus has 8 submissions with 0 KO’s on his record so we’ll go with that at odds of +400.
Tafon Nchukwi over Jun Yong Park ITD +210 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/7/21.
You don’t see many fighters make it to the UFC after only 4 fights. That goes to show you that the UFC is high on Tafon Mchukwi. He has 4 KO’s on his record but went to a decision in his UFC debut.
Park is a good fighter and will be a good test for Nchukwi. We’re taking a shot that Nchukwi will land a bomb at some point and proceed to finish Park as him winning by sub or decision seem less likely.
Marina Rodriguez / Gregor Gillespie / Carlston Harris / Donald Cerrone parlay +429 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 5/7/21.
We’ve already stated why we like Rodriguez and Gillespie to win their fights. We’re adding Carlston Harris and Donald Cerrone and parlaying them all together.
Carlston Harris is making his UFC debut and was given a winnable matchup. He has some impressive wins on his record including some over current UFC fighters. Simply put he’s better than Christian Aguilera.
Donald Cerrone is in bad form right now losing his last 4 fights. Those were against very good fighters however and now he’s getting a significant step down in opposition. Even an old Donald Cerrone on a 4 fight losing streak should have enough back class to beat Alex Morono.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
