Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We had a small losing week for last weeks card. Our bets ended up going 2-3 for a total loss of 0.15 units. Year to date we are down 34.82 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs Vettori (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Jeff Molina & Daniel Lacerda fight doesn’t go to decision (+1.10 units)
Our straight forward handicap on this fight turned out to be correct. Lacerda had never been out of round 1 in his career and Molina had a history of ending fights inside the distance. The fight was fought at a frantic pace and actually made it to round 2. It didn’t last long into round 2 however as Molina was able to end it by way of TKO.
Jessica-Rose Clark / Gregory Rodrigues parlay (+1.75 units)
The Rodrigues / Park fight was a war for it’s duration. Park had Rodrigues badly hurt but he was able to survive. Rodrigues ultimately came back and got the TKO stoppage in round 2.
Jessica-Rose Clark was able to dominate her fight with her grappling. She repeatedly took down Edwards and was able to control her for a dominant unanimous decision victory.
Losing Bets
Zviad Lazishvili / Gregory Rodrigues parlay (-1 unit)
We made the mistake of making Lazishvili a centerpiece of our bets for last week. He was 12-0 coming into his UFC debut but it was against mostly questionable opposition. Also we failed to pay enough attention to the fact that he was matched up against a tough out in Jonathan Martinez.
Finally our handicap was based on Lazishvili being able to implement his grappling and control Martinez on the ground. He wasn’t able to take down Martinez so he was left to strike with a much better striker. The results were a lopsided unanimous decision victory for Martinez. Rodrigues did his part but the parlay was already a loser.
Zviad Lazishvili / Jessica-Rose Clark parlay (-1 unit)
Unfortunately this was another parlay that didn’t come through because we had Lazishvili on it. Looking back it was very risky and foolish to make a debuting UFC fighter a centerpiece of a parlay on multiple tickets. Once again the other half of the parlay – Jessica-Rose Clark did her part and got the easy victory.
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs Teixeira (PLAYS)
Magomed Ankalaev / Alexander Volkov parlay -145 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/29/21.
Magomed Ankalaev is looking to evolve from a prospect to a title contender in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division. His record is 15-1 and is literally 1 second away from being undefeated. He’s a devasting striker and has great wrestling to go along with it.
Volkan Oezdemir is a step up in competition for him, but is beatable. He’s already had his opportunity to fight for a title and came up short. Since then he’s gone 2-3 and is starting to look more like a gate keeper than title contender. Ankalaev should be too much for Oezdemir to handle.
Alexander Volkov is just a smidge below the very best in the Heavyweight division. His size and pace is a problem for most of his opponents. He normally only loses to the elite in the division and beats everybody else.
Marcin Tybura is on a nice little 5 fight winning streak that earned him this high profile fight. When you dig a little deeper however, you see that it isn’t all that impressive. None of the fighters he beat were highly ranked and now he’s taking in the 5th ranked heavyweight. He also has a history of losing when stepping up in competition. We feel Volkov’s size and overall experience will be the deciding factors in this fight.
Magomed Ankalaev / Petr Yan parlay -118 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/29/21.
We’ve already gave our opinion on Ankalaev. So we decided to parlay him with who we feel is the best bantamweight in the world – Petr Yan.
Yan is recognized as the champ even though he lost his belt against Aljamain Sterling in his last fight. He didn’t get beat by Sterling but rather beat himself as he got disqualified for throwing an illegal knee. Prior to that he appeared to be headed for a victory. Yan’s striking, volume, and pressure are tough to duplicate.
Cory Sandhagen is a worthy challenger for the interim title against Yan. He’s fought and beaten some high profile names to get to this point. His glaring weakness however is his takedown defense and Yan should look to exploit it. Between that and Yan’s relentless style, we feel Sandhagen will have too much to overcome to touch gold in this spot.
Alexander Volkov / Petr Yan parlay -118 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/29/21.
Since we took the round robin betting approach this week, we ended up parlaying Volkov & Yan. They appear to be somewhat safe bets but this sport is MMA and anything can happen at any given moment.
Magomed Ankalaev / Alexander Volkov / Petr Yan parlay +140 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/29/21.
Our last parlay bet involves all 3 fighters who we based our round robin approach on. If it were to hit then not only will it pay plus money, but that would also mean all of the other 3 parlays hit as well. Once again we put ourselves in a position where being wrong on just 1 fight can ruin 3 of the 4 parlay tickets we made.
Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker ITD +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/29/21.
Islam Makhachev has been anointed the next Khabib Nurmagomedov due to his style and closeness to him. It will take a very special fighter and effort to beat him. His wrestling is top notch and his striking and submissions are constantly improving.
Dan Hooker is as tough as they come and a legit lightweight. The problem he’s going to have is he’s hittable and he won’t be able to fend off Makhachev’s takedowns. It’s conceivable that with an impressive finish in this spot, Makhachev could be up for a title shot in his next fight. With that type of reward on the horizon the motivation to win impressively inside the distance is there. That narrative and the plus odds is the basis for betting Makhachev to win inside the distance.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
