Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We finally had a winning week for last weeks card. Our bets ended up going 5-0 for a total win of 5.14 units. Year to date we are down 29.68 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs Teixeira (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Magomed Ankalaev / Alexander Volkov parlay (+0.69 units)
This parlay got started off on the right track with Ankalaev winning a lopsided decision. His striking was too clean for Oezdemir to handle. We feel he’s now arrived in the light heavyweight division and should get big fights from here on out.
Volkov was able to finish off the parlay and win a decision over the surging Tybura. He wasn’t as dominant however and looked to be slow and gassed at times. Ultimately his size and takedown defense were big factors in getting him the win.
Magomed Ankalaev / Petr Yan parlay (+0.85 units)
Petr Yan proved why he’s the baddest 135 pounder on the planet. He started off slow gathering info on Sandhagen then used it against him. His striking is on another level and Sandhagen didn’t have an answer for it. Aljamain Sterling is the current champion in name only and will be hard pressed to defeat Yan whenever the rematch takes place.
Alexander Volkov / Petr Yan parlay (+0.85 units)
Since we were fortunate enough to hit on all of our round robin bets this one also became a winner. It was a chalky parlay but one where both fighters were decisively better than their opponents.
Magomed Ankalaev / Alexander Volkov / Petr Yan parlay (+1.40 units)
Our final winning parlay involved all 3 legs of the round robin approach. This time we were able to cash in at plus money with it. Sometimes this betting approach works, sometimes it doesn’t. We were fortunate that last week worked out in our favor for a change.
Islam Makhachev ITD (+1.35 units)
We felt Makhachev was going to have a big performance and he didn’t disappoint. He dominated his fight with Hooker and was able to submit him via Kimura in round 1. In doing so we were able to take a huge favorite and turn him into plus money by recognizing the motivation behind an inside the distance finish.
Losing Bets
NONE
UFC 268: Usman vs Covington 2 (PLAYS)
Chris Barnett over Gian Villante +105 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 11/5/21.
Normally we don’t like to bet on low level, high variance fights. But there’s some glaring reasons behind this bet. The number one reason is to fade Gian Villante. He’s looked terrible over the last 3 years. He gave up on fighting at light heavyweight and has been fighting at heavyweight for his last 2 fights. The results are him losing to the Maurice Greene’s and Jake Collier’s of the world. Also he announced this will be his last fight.
Chris Barnett isn’t a world beater and probably
doesn’t deserve to be fighting in the UFC. He is athletic for a big guy however and is very experienced. He has good hands and we can easily see a scenario where Villante decides to get a head start on retirement and checks out after either gassing or taking some damage.
Chris Curtis over Phil Hawes +240 (1 unit) & round 3 +3400 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 11/5/21.
Chris Curtis is making his UFC debut coming over from PFL. He’s only lost to the best that the PFL had to offer which were his only losses over the last 5 years. Curtis is a true veteran of the game who nearly holds 3 times as much experience as Hawes.
Phil Hawes is on a 7 fight win streak but you get the feeling he’s beatable. He’s been known to slow down considerably later in fights. Even though Curtis is moving up in weight we feel he has the skill and heart to potentially get the win in this spot. Also he has some 3rd round finishes on his record and at the odds we were offered, we had to take a shot.
Justin Gaethje / Shane Burgos parlay +110 (1.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/5/21.
Justin Gaethje is arguably the most exciting fighter in all of MMA. He used to get hit way too much but ever since hooking up with Trevor Wittman his defense has improved greatly. Gaethje hits hard and has elite leg kicks. He’s also been in with the best fighters the UFC has to offer and had great success.
Michael Chandler is making his 3rd appearance in the UFC. He came out smoking against Dan Hooker and had Charles Oliveira on the ropes. We feel he’ll need to finish Gaethje early because the longer the fight goes the more damage Gaethje will inflict on him. While finishing Gaethje early is a possibility, we feel it’s an unlikely outcome. What’s more likely to happen is Gaethje chopping him down from the get go and ultimately finishing Chandler inside the distance.
Shane Burgos has only lost to ranked opponents in the UFC. While Billy Q is a good fighter, he’s not a ranked fighter. Burgos has the better hands and is good on the ground should the fight make it there. We feel he’ll be able to land the cleaner more meaningful shots and ultimately do enough in the judges eyes to get the victory.
Frankie Edgar over Marlon Vera by decision +225 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 11/5/21.
Frankie Edgar is now 40 years old and is at the tail end of his career. He’s a former champion and has literally fought the best fighters of his generation. We feel he has a nice stylistic matchup here against Vera. Edgar can take the fight to the ground and control Vera.
Marlon Vera is a good fighter but he’s been controlled in the ground on numerous occasions. He let Jose Aldo hold him down for all of round 3 and win the fight in his last loss. Vera is ultra tough and Edgar isn’t much of a finisher so we see this fight going the distance. If that happens then it’s conceivable that Edgar piled up enough points along the way to get the decision victory.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed