Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We had another winning week for last weeks PPV card. Our bets ended up going 3-2 for a total win of 3.68 units. Year to date we are down 26 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC 268: Usman vs Covington 2 (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Chris Barnett (+1.05 units)
Our read was correct on this fight with fading Villante. He didn’t look like he took this fight seriously at weigh ins and his performance reflected it. The result was Barnett having a breakout performance and Villante riding off into retirement a loser of 4 straight fights.
Chris Curtis (+2.40 units)
Curtis came through in his UFC debut in impressive fashion. He took some damage early in the fight and was able to come back and finish Hawes. We felt Hawes was beatable going into the fight and Curtis proved us correct at nice dog odds.
Justin Gaethje / Shane Burgos parlay (+1.66 units)
Gaethje started off the parlay right in what could be called the fight of the year. It was a back and forth war but ultimately Gaethje was able to land the more meaningful shots and get the decision victory.
If not for the Gaethje – Chandler war the Burgos – Quarantillo fight would’ve been fight of the night. It was also a back and forth war but Burgos landed the more meaningful shots and inflicted more damage on the game Quarantillo.
Losing Bets
Chris Curtis wins in round 3 (-0.5 units)
We took a chance on this bet due to the ridiculous odds of +3400 that we were being offered. It was also reasonable to think that the fight would go late and Curtis could potentially finish a tired Hawes. He did end up finishing Hawes but it occurred in round 1 instead.
Frankie Edgar (-1 unit)
This fight for the most part played out how we thought it would. Edgar was able to implement his wrestling and control Vera on the ground for long periods of time. It seemed like we were headed for a winning ticket then Vera landed a fight ending kick to Edgar’s chin in round 3 and the fight was over.
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez (PLAYS)
Thiago Moises / Felicia Spencer parlay -128 (3 units) Bet was placed on 11/11/21.
We decided to focus on parlays for this weeks card and we’re putting all of our eggs into the Moises and Spencer baskets. Moises is coming off a loss to Islam Makhachev in his last fight. He’s been fighting legit fighters through this UFC career and has had success against some of them.
Joel Alvarez is a good fighter but doesn’t have nearly the UFC or high caliber fight experience that Moises does. Also he relies on his BJJ and he’s going up against a better BJJ player in Moises. Simply put Moises is the better overall fighter with more high level experience and should win this fight.
Felicia Spencer is one of those fighters who beats who she should beat and only loses to the best of the best. Her only losses are to legends like Cyborg and Nunes and the surging Norma Dumont. Leah Letson is no where near the caliber of fighter of those ladies and is coming off a nearly 3 year layoff. She would’ve had to improved immensely to get the job done here and we just don’t see it.
Thiago Moises / Felicia Spencer / Ben Rothwell parlay +185 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/11/21.
We added Rothwell to a separate parlay to go along with our anchor fighters in Moises and Spencer. Rothwell is now 40 years old and isn’t a world beater. He is tough and experienced however. The main reason behind playing Rothwell was to fade Rogerio De Lima.
Rogerio De Lima fought most of his career at light heavyweight and gave up on that weight class 5 fights ago. He doesn’t have a win over an impressive name and has lost to fighters much worse than Rothwell. Also he’s been known to quit when the going gets tough. For those reasons we chose to fade him in this spot.
Thiago Moises / Felicia Spencer / Yadong Song parlay +203 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/11/21.
Song and Arce are good fighters and are evenly matched in this fight. We’re going with the younger, faster Song in this spot. We feel Song’s speed will ultimately be the difference in this matchup. Arce is a good striker himself but he’s been known to get hit cleanly and Song should be able to exploit that.
Thiago Moises / Felicia Spencer / Kennedy Nzechukwu parlay +265 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/11/21.
The Nzechukwu – Jung fight is also an evenly matched fight where the winner will emerge as a dark horse contender in the light heavyweight division. Nzechukwu is the more gifted athlete and has shown a lot of heart in his fights. It’s going to come down to where the fight mostly takes place. Nzechukwu will have the advantage on the feet and Jung will have it on the ground. We feel the fight will mostly play out on the feet and Nzechukwu should be able to out volume Jung to a victory.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed