Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a losing week for the last card. Our bets went 1-5 for a total loss of 3.16 units. Year to date our bets are down 29.54 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Aspinall (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Nicolas Dalby / Nikita Krylov parlay (+0.84 units)
Dalby was able to get the victory in the 1st leg of the parlay. He dominated the fight and cruised to a unanimous decision victory. Krylov was able to completely destroy Gustafsson. We knew Gustafsson was done going into the fight but we didn’t think he’d get obliterated like that.
Losing Bets
Mason Jones / Nathaniel Wood / Marc Diakiese / Molly McCann parlay (-1 unit)
Wood did his part coming back from a 2 year layoff. He was much the better fighter against the outgunned Rosa. Diakiese did what was expected and grappled his way to a unanimous decision victory over Hadzovic. McCann also did what was expected by dominating Goldy with a round 1 TKO.
Mason Jones killed our parlay as one of the biggest favorites on the whole card. We knew he liked to get hit but played him anyways. Klein is a capable fighter and we knew that as well so shame on us for playing the overrated Jones.
Chris Curtis / Volkan Oezdemir parlay (-1 unit)
We felt strong about Oezdemir being able to defeat Craig and he did. The problem was that we got caught up in the Curtis love without really thinking about the matchup. Hermansson is an elite middleweight and we completely dismissed that. Curtis is a blown up welterweight who wasn’t on Hermansson’s level. We were shocked by how Hermansson was able to dominate the fight on the feet.
Makwan Amirkhani over Jonathan Pearce (-1 unit) / by submission (-0.5 units) in round 3 +7900 (-0.5 units)
We were all in on Amirkhani and we were wrong. Going into the fight we felt Amirkhani was the better, more experienced fighter. We knew Pierce would be relentless but somehow we just dismissed that. As a result we ended up losing a total of 2 units on Amirkhani.
UFC 277: Peña vs Nunes 2 (PLAYS)
Don’tale Mayes / Magomed Ankalaev by decision / Amanda Nunes / Rafael Alves parlay +843 (0.42 units) Bet was placed on 7/29/22.
Mayes is fighting a UFC newcomer in Abdelwahab. We realize playing Mayes is a parlay is extremely risky and in the long run isn’t wise. However we feel he holds most of the advantages against the short notice replacement.
Ankalaev is the better fighter against Smith and the odds reflect it. He isn’t much of a finisher and Smith is known for his durability. So we played the most likely outcome – Ankalaev by decision.
Nunes losing to Peña in their 1st fight was an anomaly in our opinion. It was obvious she didn’t take her seriously in their 1st fight and she still almost was able to finish her early. She ended up gassing out and giving up in what was a shocker. She now appears to be taking Peña seriously for this fight and we expect the dominate Nunes to show up this time around.
Alves is a live dog in our opinion. He is extremely dangerous in the early going and Dober can be hit. Dober is known for his granite chin but it has been tested lately. If Alves is able to hurt Dober we feel he will finish him with his striking or BJJ.
Amanda Nunes & Julianna Peña / Drew Dober & Rafael Alves FDGTD parlay +118 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 7/29/22.
We feel both of these fights will end inside the distance so we parlayed them together. In the Nunes vs Peña fight we feel there are 2 most likely outcomes. Nunes will either dominate Peña in the striking to the point where she finishes her. Or Peña will be able to withstand the storm and finish a tired Nunes later in the fight.
Alves is very strong and extremely dangerous early in the fight. We feel he can hurt and get Dober out of there early. If he doesn’t he’s a known gasser who’s cardio will be severely depleted later in the fight. Either way the fight feels destined to end inside the distance.
Drakkar Klose / Matt Semelsberger parlay +132 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 7/29/22.
Klose is the better overall fighter with much more UFC experience. Garcia is tough but he’s an average talent at best. We expect Klose to be able to out grind Garcia to most likely will be a decision victory.
Semelsberger is the less experienced fighter in his matchup with Morono. The big difference here is he has fight ending power at any moment. Morono is an average striker and has been finished on the feet. He’s willing to strike for 15 minutes and we feel that’s a poor game plan against the heavy hitting Semelsberger. That thinking leads us to our next bet.
Matt Semelsberger over Alex Morono by KO +250 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 7/29/22.
Like we just pointed out we feel Semelsberger holds a huge power advantage over Morono. He’s going to get an opportunity to hurt Morono on the feet as Morono loves to press forward. Even though Morono holds a big advantage in the grappling he rarely uses it. We expect Semelsberger to catch Morono with something big that leads to the fight ending shortly after.
Alexandre Pantoja / Brandon Moreno parlay +118 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 7/29/22.
There are levels to mma and both Pantoja and Moreno are levels above their opponents. Pantoja is a good striker and is a dangerous grappler. He has some eye opening wins on his record. The same can’t be said for Perez who seems to be a cut below the very best in the division.
The same applies to Moreno over Kara-France. Moreno is a former champion who’s beaten the very best the division has to offer including Kara-France already. Kara-France is on a nice run currently but Moreno appears to be better than him everywhere. We expect both fights to be relatively close but we expect the better fighters to come away with victories.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com
