Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a losing week for the last fight card. Our bets went 1-4 for a total loss of 1.65 units. Year to date our bets are down 28.25 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Araujo (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Alonzo Menifield & Mana Martinez parlay (+1.35 units)
Menifield made short work of Cirkunov finishing him in just 88 seconds. Looking back we lost value on Menifield by playing him straight instead of ITD since Menifield by decision was very unlikely. Martinez won a sweaty split decision over Davis. Going forward we’ll probably avoid betting on Martinez as his fight IQ doesn’t appear to be where it needs to be.
Losing Bets
Cub Swanson (-1.25 units straight) (-0.50 units ITD) (-0.25 units Round 1)
We put most of our eggs in the Swanson basket and we’re dead wrong. We felt Swanson had something left and he still might. However it’s probably not at bantamweight as he was completely run over by Martinez. His kicks were too much for Swanson to handle and ultimately folded him like a chair.
Victor Henry / Dusko Todorovic & Jordan Wright FDGTD / Misha Cirkunov & Alonso Menifield FDGTD / Mike Jackson & Pete Rodriguez FDGTD parlay (-1 unit)
Losing this bet stung as the heavy favorite leg of it was the only spot that missed. The Wright fight ended in round 2. Both the Rodríguez and Menifield fights ended in round 1. All we needed was the heavy favorite Henry to come through. He proceeded to lose every round on all judges scorecards. Shame on us for dismissing Assuncao and for playing the much less UFC caliber tested fighter instead.
UFC 280: Oliveira vs Makhachev (PLAYS)
Islam Makhachev ITD +125 ***MAX BET*** (5 units) Bet was placed on 10/21/22.
We’re all in on Islam Makhachev this week. Makhachev is Khabib Nurmagomedov with better striking and submissions and similar wrestling. His striking is very underrated and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop Oliveira at some point.
Whether that happens or not we expect Makhachev to take the fight to the ground. Almost every fighter has been scared to fight Oliveira on the ground because of his insane BJJ. Makhachev however will gladly like the fight to play out on the ground because he’s a superior grappler.
We feel Makhachev’s heavy top game will ultimately break down Oliveira. He most likely will wear him out as the fight goes longer and ultimately finish him. A TKO is possible but we feel the submission will be most likely. The oddsmakers agree on the sub prop and Makhachev is more favored to sub Oliveira than Oliveira is to sub Makhachev. Oliveira has been unstoppable lately but this particular stylistic matchup doesn’t appear to favor him.
Mateusz Gamrot & Caio Borralho parlay +113 (1.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/21/22.
Gamrot arguably should still be undefeated. Dariush is on a nice 7 fight winning streak although the quality of opposition isn’t the greatest. We expect Gamrot’s pace and grappling to be too much for Dariush in this spot.
Borralho is the much better grappler with good striking. Muradov is a pure striker but is a liability on the mat. We expect Borralho to take the fight to the mat and either control Muradov for most of the fight and or finish him there for the victory.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com
