Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a winning week for the last fight card. Our bets went 1-1 for a total win of 4.75 units. Year to date our bets are down 23.50 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.
UFC 280: Oliveira vs Makhachev (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Islam Makhachev ITD (+6.25 units)
We hit our max bet on the new UFC Lightweight Champion. The fight wasn’t going the distance one way or another so we were able to extract maximum value by playing Makhachev inside the distance. Our breakdown was on point as Makhachev was able to drop Oliveira and submit him shortly after.
Losing Bets
Mateusz Gamrot & Caio Borralho parlay (-1.5 units)
Borralho did his part as he was able to win a unanimous decision. He wasn’t super impressive but that didn’t matter because all we needed was for him to win. Gamrot however was another story.
We expected Gamrot to perform much better and that simply wasn’t the case. Dariush was able to defend Gamrot’s grappling attempts and was the better striker. We underestimated Dariush’s total skill set and paid for it.
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Allen (PLAYS)
Chase Hooper ITD +120 (1 unit) & by KO +500 (0.25 units) Bets were placed on 10/28/22.
Hooper looked improved in his last fight against Colares where he got a 3rd round finish. He wants the fight to play out on the mat where he’s the superior grappler. Garcia is borderline UFC caliber and can be controlled on the ground. We expect the fight to play out on the ground where Hooper is dangerous.
If that happens Hooper will be searching for submissions. We played him by KO as well because we can see him mounting Garcia and getting a stoppage by strikes due to Garcia not being able to defend himself.
Khalil Rountree +140 (1 unit) & ITD +260 (0.50 units) Bets were placed on 10/28/22.
This fight is destined to play out on the feet as both fighters are pure strikers. Rountree is a dangerous striker with devastating power. Jacoby has been on a tear of late but has been rocked a few times during his win streak.
We see Rountree being the better striker with more power in this matchup. The line is skewed because Jacoby is 6-0-1 in his last 7 UFC fights. We expect Rountree to land something big and hurt Jacoby. Since we feel it’s unlikely the fight goes the distance we also played Rountree inside the distance as well.
Max Griffin ITD +240 (0.50 units) Bet was placed on 10/28/22.
Griffin has been in good form lately going 3-1 in his last 4 fights. His only loss was a split decision loss to Magny during that time frame. He’s shown some power lately too and is extremely durable.
Means on the other hand lacks durability as he’s been finished multiple times in the UFC. He has a lot of miles on him and the damage he’s taken over the years is adding up. Griffin isn’t a big finisher in general but we feel this is a good spot for him and can see him finishing Means at nice dog odds.
Jared Vanderaa by sub +1000 (0.25 units) Bet was placed on 10/28/22.
This bet doesn’t make a lot of sense as Vanderaa rarely wins by submission. He’s on a 4 fight losing streak and surely is fighting to keep his job. With that being said we expect him to fight smarter and do anything it takes to get the win.
Cortes-Acosta is 7-0 and is making his UFC debut. He’s a pure striker with a boxing background who has little to no grappling in his arsenal. We’re relying on Vanderaa to recognize this and get the fight to the ground instead of striking with a striker. Apparently Vanderaa has a black belt in BJJ although he rarely shows it. With his job on the line let’s see if he goes for the path of least resistance at great odds.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com
