Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a losing week for the last fight card. Our bets went 0-6 for a total loss of 5 units. Year to date our bets are down 31.6 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.
UFC 282: Adesanya vs Pereira (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
NONE
Losing Bets
Nick Negumereanu by decision (-0.25 units)
The bloodbath started early for us. Going into the fight we felt Negumereanu was going to implement his wrestling to control Ulberg and possibly win a decision. What actually happened was he decided to strike with a talented kickboxer. The result was him getting slept in round 1.
Wellington Turman ITD (-0.25 units)
We were partially correct in thinking that Turman would take Petroski into deep waters. The problem was he had no answer for his wrestling and went on to to lose a unanimous decision. He was never able to get any offensive of his own going.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz ITD (-0.50 units)
We were fairly certain that this fight wasn’t going the distance one way or another. Gomez Juarez has the kill or be killed fighting style and we felt Kowalkiewicz was the better fighter. We were correct but she surprisingly couldn’t put Gomez Juarez away and won by a close decision.
Ottman Azaitar ITD (-1 unit)
This was a closely lined fight that we were on the wrong side of. We were confident it wasn’t going the distance but chose the wrong fighter. Much to our surprise Frevola didn’t attempt to take the fight to the ground. Rather he chose to stand with a dangerous striker and slept him in round 1.
Erin Blanchfield / Weili Zhang / Israel Adesanya parlay (-1 unit)
We were literally a few minutes away from actually cashing a ticket on this horrible betting night. But it just wasn’t meant to be. Blanchfield did her thing by completely mopping the floor with McCann. Zhang was also dominant in regaining the title over Esparza. Adesanya was cruising to a victory until he wasn’t. Pereira caught him in round 5 and Izzy’s title reign along with our chance at cashing a bet disappeared.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz & Silvana Gomez Juarez FDGTD / Matt Frevola & Ottman Azaitar FDGTD parlay (-2 units)
As mentioned earlier the Kowalkiewicz fight surprisingly ended up going the distance. In doing so that caused our biggest bet of the card to be a loser. It didn’t matter that the Frevola fight only lasted a couple of minutes. It was our fault for relying on a women’s fight to end inside the distance.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Spivak (PLAYS)
Maryna Moroz & Jack Della Maddalena ITD parlay +106 (0.80 units) Bet was placed on 11/18/22.
Simply put Moroz is the better all around fighter. She’s the better striker and has surprisingly good wrestling as well. We see her most likely being able to out point the low volume Maia over 3 rounds.
Della Maddalena is a star in the making. His boxing is arguably the best in the UFC. We see him being able to piece up Roberts early and often. His last 2 fights ended in round 1 and we see that also happening here.
Jack Della Maddalena wins in round 1 +125 (0.50 units) Bet was placed on 11/18/22.
We already have Della Maddalena winning inside the distance in another bet. He’s won both of his UFC fights in round 1. His pressure and power will ultimately be too much for Roberts to handle. We just need it to happen in round 1 like in his last 2 wins.
Muslim Salikhov ITD +275 (0.50 units) Bet was placed on 11/18/22.
This is another fight that shouldn’t go the distance one way or another. Fialho packs big power and presses forward. Salikhov is the better technical striker and packs some power as well. This will be Fialho’s 5 fight this year and he’s coming off a KO loss. We feel there’s a good chance he’s going to run into something and get finished by Salikhov.
Kennedy Nzechukwu by sub +1200 (0.25 units) Bet was placed on 11/18/22.
We very well might be throwing away money on this bet. Nzechukwu has never submitted anyone in his career. He has shown improved grappling lately however. That along with the fact that Cutelaba has been submitted in his last 2 fights and 4 times overall gives us some hope. It probably isn’t going to happen but at +1200 odds we felt the risk was worth the reward.
Derrick Lewis ITD +185 (0.50 units) Bet was placed on 11/18/22.
This fight isn’t going 5 rounds so either Spivak or Lewis is winning inside the distance. We’re going with the fighter with the most finishes in UFC heavyweight history. Lewis needs to keep the fight standing to have a chance. If Spivak gets him down then he’s most likely going to finish Lewis on the ground.
As long as the fight stays standing Lewis can literally end the fight at any time with only one punch. He’s done that many times and over better fighters than Spivak. This also is a big step down in competition for Lewis. He’s either going to show that he’s still an elite heavyweight or he’s now a gatekeeper for the division.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com
