We technically had a winning night of betting for UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Ige. Our bets ended up going 1-1 on the night for a total profit of 0.02 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +21.37 units with an overall ROI of 15%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 33%.
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Ige (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Alexander Volkanovski & Calvin Kattar parlay (+5.02 units)
We came into this card alive on our 5 unit parlay when Volkanovski won a controversial split decision against Max Holloway last Saturday. Kattar brought the parlay home by winning a unanimous decision against Dan Ige. The fight played out how we thought it would with Kattar being the much better striker. When Ige couldn’t get the fight to the ground he had no choice but to take damage on the feet.
Losing Bets
Molly McCann (-5 units)
We learned a hard lesson when McCann was dominated in this fight and lost by unanimous decision. That lesson is to never max bet a low level women’s MMA fight again. I jumped on this line shortly after it came out thinking the line would go up. Initially it went down then slowly went back up. By the time the fight started my instincts were correct and the line had shot up by over 50 cents.
I completely dismissed Santos as a fighter because of her questionable completion in Brazil and because she lost to Mara Romero Borella. McCann was supposed to be the more experienced, active, fighter but that wasn’t the case. Santos put it on her for the whole fight and looked vastly improved. Live and learn.
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2 (PLAYS)
Marc Diakiese over Rafael Fiziev (3 units -160)
Bet was placed on 7/16/20.
Marc Diakiese is a UFC veteran who’s starting to come into his own as a fighter. He has a 5-3 record in the UFC with those 3 losses coming against stiff competition. He appeared to be in danger of being cut but has since rattled off 2 wins in a row. Diakiese is a creative striker who has an improving ground game.
Rafael Fiziev has only been an MMA fighter for 5 years. He has a strong striking base being a striking coach at Tiger Muay Thai. But this is MMA and not Muay Thai rules. I believe Diakiese can strike with him and he’s well rounded enough to exploit weaknesses in Fiziev’s game. This is a big step up in competition for Fiziev and I don’t believe he’s ready for this level of competition at this time.
Brett Johns over Montel Jackson (1 unit +180) Bet was placed on 7/17/20.
Brett Johns started off his career with a perfect 14-0 record. Then the UFC gave him Aljamain Sterling and Pedro Munoz in his next 2 fights and understandably he lost both fights. He has since beaten Tony Gravely to get back on the winning track. Johns is a tough, opportunistic fighter who’s fought the much better competition. He shouldn’t be this big of an underdog against Jackson.
Montel Jackson is being looked at as a blue chip prospect in the bantamweight division. He has freakish size, reach, and hand size for the bantamweight division. He has flaws in his game on the ground and Johns may be able to exploit them. Being that tall and long may work against him with a creative grappler like Johns. The line is too wide and I’ll take a chance on Johns at dog odds of nearly 2-1.
Joel Alvarez over Joe Duffy (1 unit +285)
Bet was placed on 7/17/20
Joel Alvarez is a submission specialist fighting out of Spain. He’s 1-1 in his UFC career and is coming off a win. His striking is limited and prefers to get the fight to the ground. At this point it’s unknown just how good Alvarez can be in the UFC. This bet is more about fading Duffy than anything else.
Joe Duffy is still living off of the glory of holding a victory over Conor McGregor nearly 10 years ago. He has several red flags coming into this fight. There’s been rumblings recently of him wanting to retire. He’s only had 2 fights over the last 3 years. All of his UFC wins are against fighters who are no longer in the UFC. He shouldn’t be this big of a favorite over anybody at this point of his career. Getting nearly 3-1 against a fighter who’s thinking of calling it a career is worth the risk.
Askar Askarov over Alejandre Pantoja (1 unit +170) Bet was placed on 7/17/20.
Askar Askarov is making his 3rd appearance in the UFC. He’s an elite grappler who also carries probably the 2nd most power in the division. The only blemish on his record is a draw against the surging Brandon Moreno. He’s not getting enough credit for his skill set and +170 is a nice price for this future title contender.
Alejandre Pantoja is a top 5 flyweight and is more proven against UFC competition. He lost convincingly however 2 fights ago to title challenger Deiveson Figueiredo. A little over 2 years ago he also lost a unanimous decision to Dustin Ortiz. Askarov is a better version of Ortiz and will be able to compete wherever the fight goes against Pantoja.
Deiveson Figueiredo over Joseph Benavidez (5 units -215 *MAX BET*) Bet was placed on 7/17/20.
I’m going to keep this pretty brief. Deiveson Figueiredo is too strong for Joseph Benavidez. We already seen this fight play out less than 5 months ago when Figueiredo finished Benavidez in round 2. You can see the difference in power between the 2 fighters. He was going to finish Benavidez with or without the accidental headbutt. It’s only a matter of time before he catches and finishes Benavidez again.
Luana Carolina over Ariane Lipski (1 unit +100) Bet was placed on 7/17/20.
Ariane Lipski came to the UFC with a lot of hype being the KSW Women’s Flyweight Champion. They gave her Joanne Calderwood in her UFC debut and she was outclassed. Next they gave her Molly McCann and McCann was too much for her as well. They finally gave her a newcomer in Isabela De Padua and Lipski was able to notch her 1st UFC win.
Now she’s facing Luana Carolina who’s 1-0 in the UFC. Even though she’s raw and relatively unknown, Carolina is a talented striker. She’s tough and put out a lot of volume in her UFC debut win. Ariane Lipski has shown to be an average at best fighter in her 3 UFC fights. Carolina isn’t a world beater herself but won’t have to be to get the victory over Lipski at dog odds.
Kelvin Gastelum over Jack Hermansson (3 units +100) Bet was placed on 7/18/20.
Kelvin Gastelum is only 28 years old and has already been in several high profile fights in his UFC career. He was so close to becoming the middleweight champion just a little over a year ago. He’s well rounded and packs the power to end a fight at a moments notice. Gastelum has a big heart and is difficult to finish.
Jack Hermansson is a nice fighter but isn’t on the same level as Gastelum. He doesn’t have the same kind of heart that Gastelum possesses and has checked out a couple of times when the going got tough. The wrong fighter is favored here and I’m happy getting my money on Gastelum at dog odds.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
