We had a winning night of betting for UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2. Our bets ended up going 4-3 on the night for a total profit of 1.98 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +23.34 units with an overall ROI of 15%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 30%.
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2 (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Deiveson Figueiredo (+2.33 units)
We hit our 5 unit max bet on Figueiredo with ease when he submitted Benavidez in round 1. Our max bets our now 5-1 on the year. Looking back however, Figueiredo inside the distance would’ve been the better play. We had a strong feeling that Figueiredo was going to win. It was very unlikely that Benavidez would be able to last 5 rounds with the amount of power Figueiredo brings to the table. He clipped Benavidez early and went for the submission with his underrated BJJ. Benavidez showed heart being able to escape a couple of times but Figueiredo was not to be denied and ultimately put him to sleep.
Brett Johns (+1.90 units)
This was the 1st of 3 underdog bets we hit on the night. Montel Jackson had all the hype coming into this fight with his crazy size and length. What most people failed to realize is he was inexperienced against good competition. Brett Johns on the other hand was battle tested already against the likes of Pedro Munoz and Aljamain Sterling. Johns was able to use his experience to grind out a decision victory.
Joel Alvarez (+3.05 units)
We said going into this fight that Joe Duffy shouldn’t be this big of a favorite over anyone at this point in his career. He had a few red flags coming into this matchup and we were correct. Alvarez showed improved striking and surprisingly got the better of Duffy on the feet. Duffy made the mistake of getting caught in a guillotine while shooting for a takedown and was submitted in round 1.
Askar Askarov (+1.70 units)
Alexandre Pantoja was getting all the attention going into this fight. He was rumored to be on standby in case someone was forced out of the Flyweight Championship fight later in the night. Askar Askarov wasn’t having any of it. He implemented his aggressive grappling game and pressured Pantoja throughout the fight. Pantoja slowed down quite a bit as the fight went on and ultimately lost a unanimous decision.
Losing Bets
Luana Carolina (-1 unit)
We felt going into this fight that Carolina would have a good chance to win a decision over Lipski based on her high output. To my surprise the fight hit the ground early and finished early. Lipski was able to submit Carolina with a gruesome kneebar that most likely will keep Carolina from fighting for a good amount of time.
Marc Diakiese (-3 units)
We felt Diakiese was coming into this fight in good form and held a big MMA experience advantage over Fiziev. It didn’t matter because this was Rafael Fiziev’s coming out party. He was clearly the superior striker and it showed. We made the mistake of dismissing Fiziev’s talent because he lost his UFC debut and didn’t look overly impressive in his next fight against Alex White.
Kelvin Gastelum (-3 units)
We felt this would be a rebound spot for Gastelum against Hermansson. It turned out to be a rebound spot for Hermansson instead. We felt Gastelum would have the big advantage on the feet and would be ok if the fight hit the ground. That wasn’t the case as Hermansson was able to get a quick heel hook submission in round 1.
Gastelum clearly isn’t the same fighter after that war he had with Israel Adesanya. He’s now 0-3 in his last 3 fights and looks lost at middleweight. He’d be better suited to drop back down to welterweight where he won’t be at such a size disadvantage.
Overall we had a winning night but we gave back too many units specifically with the Gastelum and Diakiese bets. Our unit sizing was off on those fights and we’ll need to make adjustments going forward. We had way too many units in play overall (15) for that card.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Till (PLAYS)
Francisco Trinaldo over Jai Herbert -140 (2 units -140) Bet was placed on 7/22/20.
Jai Herbert is making his UFC debut with a 10-1 overall record. Francisco Trinaldo’s record in the UFC alone is 15-6. Needless to say there’s a huge difference in experience between the two fighters. Trinaldo is the very definition of a grizzled veteran. He’s going to be 42 years old next month but hasn’t shown signs of falling off a cliff. Trinaldo’s coming into this fight a winner of 3 of his last 4 fights.
Herbert is going to need to be an exceptional talent to beat a fighter like Trinaldo in his UFC debut. He’s coming here on a 6 fight winning streak but this is no longer Cage Warriors. He’s now fighting someone who’s been a staple in the tough lightweight division for years. The odds appear to be closer than they should be.
UPDATE – Trinaldo missed weight by 4 pounds. We’ll have to wait and see what effect if any this has on the fight.
Movsar Evloev & Marina Rodriguez parlay +140 (2 units) Bet was placed on 7/23/20.
Movsar Evloev is a pressure fighter with a strong grappling base. Mike Grundy is a lower output fighter with a strong wrestling base. If each fighters ground games cancel each other out and the fight plays out on the feet Evloev will have the clear advantage. Even if the fight goes to the ground Evloev will be fine and may even hold the advantage.
Grundy was rocked in his last fight against Nad Narimani but was able to recover and finish him later in the round. He will need to most likely finish Evloev to get the victory here because winning by submission or decision seems unlikely. The most likely outcome is Evloev winning a decision.
Marina Rodriguez is an elite MMA striker. Carla Esparza is one of the best wrestlers in women’s MMA. This is an interesting matchup between two contrasting styles. Esparza has shown improved striking in her last few fights but will be making a huge mistake if she thinks she can out-strike Rodriguez on the feet. Her best path to victory is to try and take Rodriguez down and control her on the mat.
Rodriguez has been taken down in almost all of her UFC fights but has shown the ability to make it back to her feet. She comes forward with a relentless pace and has a dangerous clinch game. Most of the fight should play out on the feet and Rodriguez should do enough to get the victory.
Peter Sobotta over Alex Oliveira +145 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 7/24/20
This will be Peter Sobotta’s first fight in almost 2 1/2 years. Meanwhile “Cowboy” Oliveira has fought 6 times during that same time frame. He’s an exciting fighter but has lost 3 of his last 4 fights and is currently in the worst slump of his career. Sobotta has wins over Nicolas Dalby and Ben Saunders (before he completely fell out a cliff). He’s very live in this fight to win by decision or inside the distance and at odds of +145 the value is good.
Bethe Correia over Pannie Kianzad +140 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 7/24/20.
Pannie Kianzad is the younger, more technical fighter. The problem is its hard to find a nice win on her record. Her record is littered with wins against fighters who are not UFC quality. When she takes a step up in competition she loses.
Bethe Correia isn’t anything special but she’s an established UFC fighter. She’s fought for a UFC title and has a few good wins and some close losses to other UFC mainstay fighters. Even at 37 years old she’s still a tough out. She’s more than capable of grinding out a close win at dog odds.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
