Rough week last week. Our bets ended up going 4-6 last week for a total loss of 7.23 units. Year to date we are down 13.36 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Sean Brady (2.5 units)
We went 1-2 on max bets for the evening and Brady was the only one we hit on. Brady proved to be too much for Matthews to handle especially on the ground. He controlled Matthews on the ground for much of the fight before ultimately submitting him in round 3.
Tim Elliott (1.82 units)
This was an evenly lined fight but Elliott fought like he was a huge favorite. He completed dominated Espinosa on the mat making it look easy. Espinosa had no answers for Elliott’s wrestling and got drowned on the mat losing a lopsided decision.
Kyler Phillips (1.35 units)
Phillips was able to put an end to Song’s 9 fight unbeaten streak. He proved to be too fast and landed the more meaningful strikes throughout the fight. Song was the higher thought of prospect entering the fight but Phillips took that away from him too.
Aljamain Sterling (2.10 units)
This fight had a surprise ending to it that we benefited from. Yan was on his way to victory and then he did the unthinkable. He kneed Sterling while he was down and rightfully was disqualified. Sterling did have his moments earlier but Yan’s takedown defense was excellent and he landed the more meaningful strikes throughout the fight.
Losing Bets
Mario Bautista (5 units)
Losing this max bet laid the foundation for a losing night. Bautista was the better fighter in round 1 while landing more shots. However all of that came to a crashing halt when Jones landed a wicked uppercut which dropped Bautista. Jones proceeded to jump on him and pound him out for the TKO victory.
Aalon Cruz (1 unit)
We were willing to give Cruz one more chance after getting ran over in his UFC debut. He started off aggressive against Medic but that came to a halt quickly once Medic hurt him. Medic proceeded to give him a prolonged beating until the referee finally felt that Cruz had enough. Cruz simply isn’t UFC material at this point.
Rogerio Bontorin (1 unit)
Bontorin completely dominated this fight on the ground until the fight made its way back up to the feet. He had Kara-France in serious submission trouble but to Kara-France’s credit he was able to survive. Then when the fight went back to the feet near the end of round 1 Kara-France stunned and finished Bontorin in the blink of an eye.
Thiago Santos (1 unit)
This fight was frustrating to watch as neither fighter was willing to let their hands go. Most of the fight involved the fighters staring at each other without much action happening. In the end it was Rakic who did a little more to get the decision victory. Santos doesn’t appear to be the same fighter after having multiple surgeries.
Israel Adesanya (5 units)
Our read was off here as we felt Adesanya’s speed would be too much for Blachowicz to handle. It did start off that way however with Adesanya looking good early in the fight. However Blachowicz’s size and power neutralized Adesanya’s speed. Also once Blachowicz decided multiple times to take Adesanya down Izzy couldn’t make it back to his feet.
Bautista, Brady, Makhachev, Adesanya Parlay (2 units)
This parlay was doomed from the beginning once Bautista got knocked out. Even if it had made it to the last leg it still would’ve been a loser when Adesanya lost. It goes to show that betting parlays is for suckers because they’re so hard to win.
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad (PLAYS)
Jason Witt vs Matt Semelsberger FDGTD +100 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/12/21.
This is a matchup between a striker and grappler. Semelsberger will look to keep the fight standing as he’s the better striker. Witt will look to take the fight to the ground as he’s the better grappler. One of those two things should occur leaving the other fighter outside of their comfort zone potentially leading to a finish.
Jonathan Martinez over Davey Grant ITD +185 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/12/21.
At 26 years of age Martinez is a dark horse prospect in the UFC’s bantamweight division. He’s well rounded and has fight ending power. Grant on the other hand is 35 years old and is a journeyman at best. He was also rocked and dropped in his last fight even though he won. If Martinez is able to hurt him he should be able to finish him.
Misha Cirkunov over Ryan Spann ITD +120 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/12/21.
This is a high variance fight that should end inside the distance one way or another. Both fighters are a bit chinny and have good power and submissions. We feel that Cirkunov has the better wins and is more of a submission threat. And since we don’t feel the fight is going to decision we’ll play Cirkunov inside the distance at plus money.
Darren Stewart over Eryk Anders by decision +125 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
Darren Stewart is 5-3 in his last 8 fights while Anders is 3-5 over the same time frame. Stewart has been in better form while Anders has yet to find the best weight class to fight in. Anders is however as tough as they come and is difficult to finish. We see Stewart doing enough to win but not being able to finish Anders because of that toughness.
Nasrat Haqparast over Rafa Garcia by KO +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/12/21.
Rafa Garcia is undefeated at 12-0 but is stepping in on short notice in his UFC debut. Haqparast on the other hand is a legit, established, UFC fighter with the potential to go far in the lightweight division. He has fast, heavy, hands and can end a fight quickly. We feel Garcia has too much to overcome in this spot and will suffer his 1st defeat most likely by KO.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
