We’re coming off one of our best weeks ever for UFC 265. Our bets ended up going 3-1 for a total profit of 11.65 units. Year to date we are down 18.67 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Johnny Munoz ITD (1.30 units)
This fight went as planned with Munoz’s talent ultimately prevailing. Once he was able to get the fight to the ground it didn’t take long for him to secure the 2nd round submission victory.
Ciryl Gane ITD (1.05 units)
Gane proved that he’s a serious problem in the heavyweight division with his systematic dismantling of Derrick Lewis. He dominated from start to finish as Lewis couldn’t find him. Ultimately the volume discrepancy caused Lewis to cave in and get finished in round 3.
Johnny Munoz / Manel Kape / Rafael Fiziev / Tecia Torres / Gane-Lewis ends ITD parlay (10.30 units)
Munoz got the parlay started off right with his 2nd round finish. Then Kape was able to get a highlight reel flying knee finish in round 1. The only fight that was somewhat sweaty was the Fiziev fight. He did clearly win the 1st 2 rounds however and got the decision victory. Torres proved she was a level above Hill easily winning by unanimous decision. Finally, Gane was able to finish the fight in round 3. We felt is was extremely unlikely that Lewis would make it 5 rounds one way or another.
Losing Bets
Pedro Munhoz (-1 unit)
Munhoz was the only losing bet on the night. We felt he would be able to take over later in the fight but that wasn’t the case. Aldo dominated from start to finish and Munhoz couldn’t get his offense started. We underestimated Aldo and he showed that he still has a lot left for the bantamweight division.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Gastelum (PLAYS)
Brandon Royval over Alexandre Pantoja +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/20/21.
Honestly this is the best, most intriguing, fight on the card. It’s a shame that it’s not at least the co-main event. We’re siding with the underdog Royval in this spot. He has a history of winning as an underdog. More importantly he brings a level of chaos to every fight. He fights like a Tasmanian Devil. Pantoja is the more skilled fighter but has been wobbled in the past. We feel the unorthodox Royval will pressure him nonstop leading to a decision victory with a stoppage also being possible.
Parker Porter over Chase Sherman +155 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/20/21.
Chase Sherman is probably the better fighter between the two but who has he beaten? He’s lost to a few recognizable names but has no good wins on his record. With that being said we feel it’s crazy that he’s that big of a favorite over Porter.
Parker Porter isn’t anything special himself but he should be competitive against Sherman. Porter has decent volume & power and also has a sneaky submission game. This bet is more about fading Sherman as a favorite and we wouldn’t be surprised to see Porter get the victory in this spot.
Jared Cannonier over Kelvin Gastelum by decision +250 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/20/21.
Cannonier was on a nice little winning streak at middleweight but then he ran into Robert Whittaker. Now he’s getting a step down in class against the fading Gastelum. Kelvin Gastelum hasn’t been the same fighter since losing his title fight against Adesanya. It appears that fight took something out of him.
He still has an incredible chin and is known for his durability however. We feel Cannonier will be able to outpoint him for 5 rounds and cruise to a decision victory. Cannonier isn’t a big puncher and doesn’t have a submission game so a decision victory feels like the most likely outcome for him.
Luis Saldana / Mark O. Madsen / Jared Cannonier parlay +381 (2 units) Bet was placed on 8/20/21.
Luis Saldana is the quicker, more experienced fighter against Lingo. Austin Lingo has big power but is slow and plodding. We feel Saldana’s speed, output, and movement should be enough to get him the victory.
Mark O. Madsen is a pure wrestler with ok power and a sneaky submission game. Guida has tons more experience but has been finished 8 times in the UFC. We feel Madsen’s wrestling will be better than Guida’s and a finish is also on the table.
We already broke down our feelings earlier on the Cannonier fight. He lost to Whittaker in his last fight and Whittaker is the 2nd best middleweight in the world. Gastelum has lost 4 of his last 5 fights and also lost to Whittaker in his last fight. But he’s also lost to the likes of Hermansson and Till and we feel Cannonier would match up well against those type of fighters.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
