We had a rough week of betting for last weeks card. Our bets ended up going 1-8 for a total loss of 4 units. Year to date we are down 21.62 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Chikadze (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Bryan Battle ITD (2 units)
This was our only bright spot for last weeks card. Battle started off slow and was taking some damage from Urbina’s punches. But he was able to weather the storm and start landing some shots of his own. He ultimately was able to submit a game Urbina in the middle of round 2.
Losing Bets
Mana Martinez in round 1 (-0.5 units)
This losing bet set the tone for the evening. We were expecting an aggressive showing from Martinez and that simply wasn’t the case. He let Cannetti get off early and often. If it wasn’t for Cannetti slowing down later in the fight because of his bad gas tank Martinez would’ve lost as a sizable favorite.
JJ Aldrich ITD (-0.5 units)
Even though this turned out to be a losing bet we have no regrets making it. Aldrich was much the bigger and better fighter. She was able to stun the smaller Demopoulos a couple of times but wasn’t able to finish her. Props to Demopoulos for toughing it out and making it to the final horn.
Darren Stewart (-1.5 units)
This turned out to be a bad read on our part. We felt Stewart would be able to take the fight to the ground and he did for a short while. The problem is we forgot that he doesn’t have a controlling grappling game and Jacoby was able to make it back to his feet. It didn’t take long for Jacoby to hurt Stewart while on the feet and finish him shortly after.
Sam Alvey (-1.5 units)
We expected a much more spirited effort from Alvey and that wasn’t the case. He came into the fight winless in his last 6 fights and still lacked a sense of urgency. Alvey somehow managed to lose a decision even after Turman had 2 points deducted due to accidental fouls.
Mana Martinez ITD / Alvey & Turman FDGTD parlay (-1 unit)
As stated earlier this was a losing ticket once Martinez was unable to finish his 41 year old opponent. Then we felt Alvey would fight like his job was on the line and that also wasn’t the case. Getting reverse swept on this bet confirms how bad it was.
Jamall Emmers / Kevin Lee / Ricky Turcios parlay (-1 unit)
Yet another bad bet that was a loser after the 1st fight. Emmers hurt Sabatini on the feet and exhibited poor fight IQ by taking the fight to the ground. He gave Sabatini an opening for his best path to victory and he took it. Then Kevin Lee proceeded to get out worked by the surging Daniel Rodriguez. We felt Lee’s experience would mean something but it didn’t. He’s just a fighter who’s lost in between weight classes who feels he’s better than he really is. Turcios was the only winner on the ticket and even that wasn’t easy as he won a close split decision.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Till (PLAYS)
Charles Jourdain over Julian Erosa ITD +125 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/3/21.
This fight should be exciting regardless of who wins it or how long it lasts. We’re siding with the more durable Jourdain in this spot. He’s not the biggest puncher but has had a couple of big finishes in his brief UFC career.
Erosa in the other hand seems to always be in fights that end in a finish. He has good size and power but has been finished 6 times himself. We’re banking on Jourdain landing something meaningful at some point and proceeding to finish Erosa shortly after.
Jack Shore over Liudvik Sholinian by decision +160 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/3/21.
Jack Shore is a big betting favorite here and it’s well deserved. He’s the more experienced fighter with the better striking and grappling. There seems to be a large portion of the mma gambling community that feels Shore will win inside the distance and the odds reflect it. We’re taking a stand against that happening.
Sholinian is a good fighter who’s never been finished before. We feel the fight will ultimately play out mostly on the ground where we believe Sholinian will be defensively responsible. Shore is a rising prospect and we won’t be surprised if he gets a finish but something tells us he’ll win this fight on the scorecards instead.
Khalil Rountree over Modestas Bukauskas by decision +600 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/3/21.
Both of these fighters have a ton of finishes on their records and have been finished in multiple losses. Surprisingly both fighters are also coming off of decision losses in their last fights. We see a scenario where Rountree can outpoint Bukauskas from the outside on his way to a decision victory. At odds of 6-1 it’s worth a stab.
David Zawada over Alex Morono ITD +350 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/3/21.
Alex Morono like to press forward sometimes in a reckless manner. His striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. Zawada has mostly finish victories on his record including a few submissions as well. We feel there’s a reasonable chance that Zawada can hurt and finish Morono especially since he’s so easy to hit.
Darren Till over Derek Brunson ITD +140 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/3/21.
Derek Brunson is on a nice little 4 fight winning streak. When you dig a little deeper you see that he benefitted from favorable matchups. In the past Brunson had been wobbled and finished multiple times. Till is big but isn’t necessarily a big puncher. He is a good counter striker however. We feel there’s a reasonable chance that Till can hurt a tired Brunson later in the fight and proceed to finish him.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
