Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a losing week for the last fight card. Our bets went 1-4 for a total loss of 2.25 units. Year to date our bets are up 3.20 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs Aspinall (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Paddy Pimblett R1 (+1.75 units)
This was our only win on the night and it went according to plan. Pimblett aggressively pressed forward and was able to get the fight to the ground. Once on the ground he was the superior grappler and was able to submit Vargas in round 1.
Losing Bets
Alexander Volkov (-1 unit)
This turned out to be a bad read as Aspinall was able to submit Volkov in round 1. We expected better from the much more experienced Volkov. Aspinall was able to take Volkov down and submit him shortly after very similar to the Pimblett fight.
Dan Hooker (-1 unit)
This was another bad read where we relied on the much more experienced fighter. Allen was able to hurt Hooker and poured it on him. Hooker was able to withstand the initial onslaught and even stunned Allen. But seconds later Allen hurt him again and the fight was stopped shortly after.
Luana Carolina (-1 unit)
Carolina fought a poor game plan giving away the early part of the fight. Then she used her length to control the octagon and land shots of her own. Everything changed when McCann landed a highlight reel spinning elbow that put Carolina to sleep. Carolina probably would win 7 out of 10 fights between the two but all that matters is she lost this fight.
Ilia Topuria ITD / Gunnar Nelson ITD / Alexander Volkov & Tom Aspinall FDGTD parlay (-1 unit)
Topuria did his part coming from behind in an exciting fight. He survived an early scare and came back to finish a game Jai Herbert. The Volkov fight went as planned as we figured it wouldn’t go the distance ending in round 1. Sadly Nelson couldn’t finish Sato and that’s what ended up killing our parlay. He took Sato’s back multiple times and never showed any real interest to try and submit him. Nelson preferred to pepper him with light strikes to the side of the head instead and win a decision.
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Daukaus (PLAYS)
Chris Gutierrez over Dana Batgerel by decision +240 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/25/22.
This is a classic technical fighter versus brawler matchup. Gutierrez is the technical fighter who has good leg kicks but lacks power. Batgerel is heavy handed and is coming off of three 1st round finishes in his last 3 fights against lesser competition.
We see Gutierrez being able to score points from the outside while avoiding Batgerel’s power. And since Gutierrez lacks power it’s very unlikely he will be able to finish Batgerel. So Gutierrez winning a decision appears to be the much better value over playing him on the money line.
Matt Brown ITD over Bryan Barberena +160 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/25/22.
This fight feels like it’s going to end inside the distance and the odds reflect it. Both fighters have been in wars and have taken lots of damage throughout their careers. Brown is the better finisher of the two and has one shot fight ending power. We’re siding with the better finisher in a fight that we don’t expect to make it to the scorecards.
Alexa Grasso ITD over Joanne Wood +600 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/25/22.
This bet is a shot in the dark as Grasso isn’t much of a finisher. The odds were too good to pass up however and a case can be made for it happening.
Grasso is clearly the better fighter with excellent striking and underrated grappling. She could comeback much improved off of a year layoff. Wood on the other hand has been finished in 2 of her last 4 fights. She appears to be at the tail end of her career being 36 years old and recently married. Narratives aside Grasso should win this fight and a finish wouldn’t be a complete shocker.
Neil Magny & Max Griffin FGTD / Alexa Grasso / Curtis Blaydes parlay +147 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/25/22.
We’ve already explained why we feel Grasso will win so we’ll move on to the other legs of the parlay. Magny & Griffin are both durable fighters and lack serious power. For those reasons we feel there’s a strong chance the fight will make it to a decision.
Blaydes is a legit top 5 contender with dominant wrestling. His losses are to elite, one shot, power punchers which Daukaus is not. We would be shocked if Daukaus were able to finish Blaydes. What most likely will happen is Blaydes taking him down repeatedly and either winning a lopsided decision or finishing him along the way.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com
