Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a losing week for the last card. Our bets went 0-5 for a total loss of 8 units. Year to date our bets are down 15.34 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.
UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
NONE
Losing Bets
This turned out to be a brutal night of betting for us as we went 0-5 on our bets. We felt good about our bets but it just wasn’t our night. Let’s take a look at what went wrong last week.
Justin Gaethje ITD (-2 units)
We felt Gaethje was live for the KO and he came close to cashing this bet. Our mistake was placing a bet on someone who only had that single win condition. He was able to drop Oliveira twice but couldn’t finish him. Contrarily Oliveira hurt Gaethje twice and once he dropped Gaethje it was a wrap shortly after.
Blagoy Ivanov ITD (-2 units)
Our biggest mistake was placing a bet on someone to finish who isn’t a finisher. We thought Ivanov would be able to survive Rogerio de Lima’s early onslaught which he did. Then we were banking on him to finish a gassed Rogerio de Lima but that never occurred because of his lack of finishing ability.
Lupita Godinez / Norma Dumont parlay (-2 units)
Lupita Godinez did her part as she absolutely dominated a severely outclassed Ariane Carnelossi. But it didn’t matter as Norma Dumont couldn’t pull through and do her part. We felt Dumont would be the better striker and she was. What we didn’t see coming was that she would get controlled against the cage and on the ground. We neglected Chiasson’s wrestling ability and paid for it.
Blagoy Ivanov & Marcos Rogerio de Lima / Donald Cerrone & Joe Lauzon / Charles Oliveira & Justin Gaethje FDGTD parlay (-1 unit)
Our most confident pick of this parlay was the Gaethje fight ending inside the distance. That fight ended in round 1. The Cerrone & Lauzon fight was cancelled the morning of. That left the Ivanov & Rogerio de Lima fight to end inside the distance. Like we pointed out earlier Ivanov isn’t a finisher. He also has a legendary chin so of course that fight went the distance which made this parlay a loser.
Lupita Godinez / Norma Dumont / Blagoy Ivanov & Marcos Rogerio de Lima / Donald Cerrone & Joe Lauzon / Charles Oliveira & Justin Gaethje FDGTD parlay (-1 unit)
Godinez came through along with the Gaethje fight ending inside the distance. The dream of hitting this parlay ended however once the Ivanov fight went the distance. Even had that went our way Dumont would’ve still lost and ruined the parlay anyways.
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs Rakic (PLAYS)
Louis Smolka & Davey Grant FDGTD -175 (***10 UNIT SUPER MAX BET***) Bet was placed on 5/13/22.
This is the 1st ever 10 unit super max bet for us. It was made due to our strong convictions about what we expect to happen in this fight. We also were able to get a great line as well. Both fighters are finishers and their fights rarely go to the score cards.
Smolka’s fighting style is the catalyst for his fights generally ending inside the distance. He normally goes all out from the start of the fight either putting himself in a position to get a finish or get finished. He was finished by KO in his last fight for the very 1st time by the normally light hitting Vince Morales.
Davey Grant is a bigger puncher than Morales and has been in some brutal wars in his last 2 fights. He’s also been susceptible to getting submitted in the past as he’s been subbed 3 times in his career. That would be Smolka’s most likely path to victory. All the ingredients are present for either a Grant KO or Smolka submission. The fight of course could make it to the final horn but it seems unlikely based on the matchup.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com
