Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a losing week for the last fight card. Our bets went 1-3 for a total loss of 0.67 units. Year to date our bets are down 27.5 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.
UFC Paris: Gane vs Tuivasa (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Robert Whittaker / Nassourdine Imavov parlay (+1.58 units)
Imavov was simply the better fighter in his matchup against Buckley. He was bigger and stronger and was able to avoid Buckley’s wild strikes.
Whittaker proved that there are levels to mma and he’s right near the top. Vettori was completely outclassed as he couldn’t get any offense going.
Losing Bets
Robert Whittaker / Nassourdine Imavov / Michal Figlak parlay (-1 unit)
We decided to place rolling parlay bets and everything went downhill after the 1st parlay hit. We bought into the Figlak hype and paid for it. He was supposed to be the more aggressive fighter with the better grappling. Ziam actually was clearly the better striker and surprisingly had the better grappling. It was our mistake for relying on the fighter making his UFC debut.
Robert Whittaker / Nassourdine Imavov / Michal Figlak / Charles Jourdain parlay (-0.75 units)
Even had Figlak won his fight this parlay would’ve lost because of Jourdain. We put too much emphasis on what was perceived as a size advantage for Jourdain. That wasn’t the case as we overlooked the speed advantage Wood had. He was the cleaner striker with the better volume.
Robert Whittaker / Nassourdine Imavov / Michal Figlak / Charles Jourdain / Khalid Taha parlay (-0.50 units)
The final bad pick of the night was adding Taha to the last parlay. It didn’t matter because both Figlak and Jourdain had already lost. We expected more from Taha who had much more UFC experience than Quinonez. Talent was greater than UFC experience and Quinonez showed it by basically running over Taha.
UFC 279: Diaz vs Ferguson PLAYS)
Yohan Lainesse & Darian Weeks / Hakeem Dawodu & Julian Erosa under 2.5 rounds parlay +218 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/10/22.
We’re banking on violence for the 1st fight of the night. Lainesse is a heavy hitter with big power. With big power comes bad cardio and that’s the case with Lainesse. If he can’t get weeks out of there early then he becomes a liability to get finished later in the fight. Weeks is durable and capable of finishing Lainesse within 2.5 rounds.
Dawodu has fast hands and decent power. Erosa is a dangerous striker and has good submissions. We expect Dawodu to be able to test the chin of Erosa and possibly finish him. If Erosa hangs around long enough he’s more than capable of finishing Dawodu on the feet or ground.
Khamzat Chimaev & Kevin Holland under 1.5 rounds +130 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/10/22.
We fully expect Chimaev to smash early in this spot. Holland’s takedown defense is a major liability in his game. Chimaev should look to take the fight to the ground early and once there all finishes are live. He could either pound him out or possibly submit him. Holland isn’t much of a threat to Chimaev either on the feet or ground. The only way the fight goes over is if Chimaev wants to put a prolonged beating on him.
Hakeem Dawodu & Irene Aldana parlay +127 (2 units) Bet was placed on 9/10/22.
As mentioned earlier Dawodu is a skilled striker. That combined with Erosa’s lack of striking defense puts him in a good spot to win by KO or decision. As long as Dawodu can avoid Erosa’s power and timely submissions then he should do enough to get the victory in this spot.
Aldana holds a major striking advantage her matchup against Chaisson. If she can keep the fight upright then she will win by decision or possibly by TKO. The only way we see her losing is if Chaisson takes her down multiple times and controls her like Holm did. While that’s possible we feel the more likely outcome is the fight plays out standing where Aldana should dominate.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com
