Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a winning week for the last fight card. Our bets went 2-3 for a total win of 0.79 units. Year to date our bets are down 26.60 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Yan (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Guido Cannetti (+2.25 units)
Sadly Randy Costa is a fraud and Cannetti made short work of him. It was a fight destined to end inside the distance. The 42 year old Cannetti was able to hurt and finish him by RNC shortly after.
Ilir Latifi / Joaquim Silva & Jesse Ronson FDGTD / Randy Costa & Guido Cannetti FDGTD (+0.54 units)
Latifi was able to win a boring unanimous decision over the since released Oleinik. The Silva fight had violence as he was able to finish Ronson in round 2. The Cannetti fight was easy money as that fight ended in only 64 seconds.
Losing Bets
Mike Davis / John Castaneda / Randy Brown parlay (-1 unit)
Davis did his job and cruised to a unanimous decision victory. Once again Borshchev had no takedown defense and it cost him. Brown was too young and athletic for Trinaldo and he won an easy unanimous decision. Trinaldo finally looked like a 44 year old fighter. Unfortunately Castaneda couldn’t get the job done and killed our parlay. He looked good early but Santos is a savage and looked like the 2nd coming of Charles Oliveira.
Guido Cannetti in round 2 (-0.50 units)
We were correct by being on the Cannetti side at nice dog odds. However we didn’t think he would run through Costa like he did in slightly over a minute. We thought Costa would be durable enough to make it to round 2 but that wasn’t the case.
Brendan Allen by decision (-0.50 units)
We were also correct with having the underdog in Allen winning the fight. The problem is he won inside the distance and not by decision. Jotko is normally durable but Allen was able to implement his excellent BJJ skills and got the submission victory in round 1.
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Araujo (PLAYS)
Cub Swanson over Jonathan Martinez +165 (1.25 units) Bet was placed on 10/14/22.
Swanson is a grizzled veteran who’s fought the best fighters the UFC has to offer. Martinez on the other hand has fought mostly average UFC competition. On top of that he’s been dropped multiple times and has lost to suspect completion. Swanson is fast and hits hard and is moving down to the bantamweight division. We feel Swanson is a live dog in this spot with a chance to win inside the distance.
Cub Swanson over Jonathan Martinez ITD +400 (0.50 units) Bet was placed on 10/14/22.
We just pointed out how we like Swanson and feel he can win inside the distance. He has fast hands and Martinez has been rocked in multiple fights. Martinez was rocked and finished by Davey Grant in his last loss. Swanson can bang like Grant and is a better fighter than Grant.
Cub Swanson over Jonathan Martinez in round 1 +900 (0.25 units) Bet was placed on 10/14/22.
Since we’re on Swanson straight and inside the distance we took him in round 1 as well. If he starts off fast like we expect him to he can catch Martinez. Swanson is a finisher so we took a shot that he can get Martinez out of there in round 1.
Victor Henry / Dusko Todorovic & Jordan Wright FDGTD / Misha Cirkunov & Alonso Menifield FDGTD / Mike Jackson & Pete Rodriguez FDGTD parlay +119 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/14/22.
We went with what we feel is a safe chalky parlay. Henry is coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut. Assuncao is not the same fighter and could retire or be cut with a loss. We expect pure violence in the Wright fight like always. He’s never gone to round 3 and rarely gets out of round 1. The Menifield fight feels like 1 of 2 things will happen. He’ll either pound out Cirkunov with his power. Or Cirkunov will get the fight to the ground and submit him. The fight going the distance seems unlikely. Finally we feel Rodríguez will take the fight straight to Jackson and finish him inside the distance.
Alonso Menifield & Mana Martinez parlay +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/14/22.
We expect Menifield’s power to come into play. Cirkunov has been finished in 5 of his last 6 losses. If Menifield can keep the fight standing then it’s likely he will hurt and finish Cirkunov along the way.
We feel Martinez is the better fighter in his matchup with Davis. He has the power to end the fight at any moment. Davis doesn’t have the same type of finishing ability but he’s tough. Martinez should land the more meaningful blows and win most likely by decision but a finish wouldn’t surprise either.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com
