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Capper’s Delight – (4/8/23) UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2

admin — Sat, 08 Apr 2023 18:59:38 +0000

Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a losing week for the last fight card. Our bets went 0-1 for a total loss of 1.50 units. Year to date our bets are up 3.26 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs Sandhagen (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

NONE

Losing Bets

Marlon Vera (-1.50 units)

We took a chance on the surging Vera but he couldn’t figure out the Sandhagen puzzle. He couldn’t pull the trigger and allowed Sandhagen to get off volume and win the fight on the scorecards.

UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2 (PLAYS)

Luana Pinheiro & Raul Rosas Jr parlay +142 (2 units) Bet was placed on 4/8/23.

Would anyone be surprised if Waterson lost in this spot and laid down her gloves and called it a career? Waterson represents the old guard while Pinheiro is the new guard. We see Pinheiro out striking Waterson to most likely a decision victory.

The UFC are wanting to make Rosas Jr a star and they’re giving him a favorable matchup. Rodriguez is good but he won’t be able to stop Rosas’ takedowns. With Rosas Jr theoretically on top that’ll allow him to either control Rodriguez for long periods of time or submit him. Either way both results would equal a Rosas Jr victory.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com

Image Credit: UFC

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Capper’s Delight – (11/12/22) UFC 281: Adesanya vs Pereira

admin — Sat, 12 Nov 2022 17:05:17 +0000

Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a losing week for the last fight card. Our bets went 0-2 for a total loss of 2 units. Year to date our bets are down 26.6 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

NONE

Losing Bets

Darrick Minner (-1 unit)

We knew a bad night of betting was coming when we were on the wrong side of an “alleged” fixed fight. Apparently Minner came into the fight injured and had no interest fighting for our money. He would’ve had a decent shot at the win under normal circumstances.

Grant Dawson & Marina Rodriguez parlay (-1 unit)

Dawson got the parlay started off right as he systematically dismantled Madsen. He did what he normally does and outwrestled the former Olympian. Madsen also didn’t have an answer for the leg kicks Dawson landed at will. Dawson was able to get a submission finish in round 3.

Unfortunately the parlay became a loser when Rodriguez lost in the main event. We felt she was the cleaner striker with the straighter punches. Lemos didn’t care about any of that and imposed her will on her. Rodriguez seemed hesitant to let her hands go while Lemos winged her powerful punches like normal. The result was a dominant TKO finish for the surging Lemos.

UFC 281: Adesanya vs Pereira (PLAYS)

Nick Negumereanu by decision +500 (0.25 units) Bet was placed on 11/11/22.

We’re taking a swing on Negumereanu to win by decision in a closely lined fight. This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Ulberg is a talented striker but lacks a ground game. Negumereanu is a good wrestler with poor striking.

We feel Negumereanu will look to take the fight to the ground where he has the advantage. If that happens there’s a good chance the fight will go the distance as he’s not much of a finisher. He should be able to win a decision based on control time under that scenario.

Wellington Turman ITD +325 (0.25 units) Bet was placed on 11/11/22.

Turman is a talented grappler with underrated striking. Petroski is undefeated in the UFC and is also a talented grappler. He does however have a questionable gas tank. We feel Turman can take Petroski into deep waters. Once there Petroski could be susceptible to getting hurt on the feet or getting submitted on the ground.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz ITD +300 (0.50 units) Bet was placed on 11/11/22.

There’s a huge difference in fight experience and quality of opposition in this matchup. Kowalkiewicz is a former title contender with tons of UFC experience. This will be Gomez Juarez’ 4th UFC fight. Gomez Juarez has big power but no ground game.

Kowalkiewicz isn’t known for her grappling but she’s capable of submitting Gomez Juarez in this spot. All it will take is the fight to hit the floor and Kowalkiewicz will be live for a finish. Not because Kowalkiewicz is a grappling wizard but because Gomez Juarez is that bad on the ground.

Ottman Azaitar ITD +140 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 11/11/22.

Azaitar is 13-0 and has almost finished all of his opponents. He packs huge one shot power. Frevola is well rounded but has some chin issues. If Frevola decides to bang it out on the feet then Azaitar will be live to end the fight at any moment. If Frevola looks to take the fight to the ground then he’ll most likely win
with ease.

Erin Blanchfield / Weili Zhang / Israel Adesanya parlay +123 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 11/11/22.

We like our chances of hitting this chalky parlay. Blanchfield is a legit prospect with a clear path to victory. That path is to take the fight to the ground where she’s the superior grappler over McCann.

Zhang is the superior striker in her matchup against Esparza. If she can stay off of her back then she’s like to win by decision or finish. She’s going to be too strong for Esparza to handle in our opinion.

Adesanya is a top pound for pound fighter in all of mma. Pereira meanwhile is making just his 8th mma fight overall. Yes he holds 2 victories over Adesanya in kickboxing but that’s a completely different sport. Pereira appears to be KO or bust while Adesanya can win in a variety of ways. We feel Adesanya will get his revenge on Pereira and style on him along the way.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz & Silvana Gomez Juarez FDGTD / Matt Frevola & Ottman Azaitar FDGTD parlay +166 (2 units) Bet was placed on 11/11/22.

We pointed out earlier how Gomez Juarez packs big power and has no ground game. Kowalkiewicz has been stopped in the past against big punchers. If the fight plays out on the feet Gomez Juarez is live for a TKO finish. If it plays out on the ground Kowalkiewicz is live for a submission finish.

The exact same can be said in the Frevola vs Azaitar fight. Azaitar has the one shot power on the feet while Frevola is live for a finish on the ground. We fully expect both fights to end inside the distance for those reasons.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com

Image Credit: Needing Art? @needingart

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Capper’s Delight – (7/2/22) UFC 276: Adesanya vs Cannonier

admin — Sat, 02 Jul 2022 16:13:14 +0000

Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off another losing week for the last card. Our single Super Max bet went 0-1 for a total loss of 10 units. Year to date our bets are down 26.47 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Gamrot (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

NONE

Losing Bets

Umar Nurmagomedov ITD (-10 units)

This one hurt as we lost 10 units on this play. We knew it was very risky to make that size of a play on a prop bet. But we felt good about the bet and got an incredible number. The bottom line however was it was a large losing bet.

Nurmagomedov looked the part but couldn’t finish Maness. That’s because Maness didn’t care about winning the fight and his sole purpose was to survive and make it to the final bell. He got the “moral victory” but took zero risks to give him a shot to actually win the fight. Pre fight Maness was heard saying that either himself or Nurmagomedov wouldn’t make it to a decision. Things change quickly in the heat of the battle.

UFC 276: Adesanya vs Cannonier (PLAYS)

Max Holloway over Alexander Volkanovski +170 (3 units) Bet was placed on 7/2/22.

This is the trilogy fight between these two with the 1st two fights going to Volkanovski. The reason there’s a 3rd fight is because the 1st two fights were close especially the last one. Also the fact remains that they’re hands down the two best featherweights in the world.

Holloway is known for his volume and his legendary chin. Volkanovski is fast, technical, and has great fight IQ. These two are evenly matched and this fight should be another close one. The odds however don’t reflect that.

Holloway is a decently sized underdog in this spot. He’s also in the conversation of being the greatest featherweight of all time. A win here would help with that notion. We feel Holloway’s chin and volume will give him a shot to wrestle the title away from Volkanovski at an incredible price.

Alex Pereira over Sean Strickland +110 (2 units) Bet was placed on 7/2/22.

Pereira only has 6 mma fights total and is in a title eliminator fight against Strickland. The reason is because of his exceptional kickboxing background. He also holds two victories over Israel Adesanya in kickboxing.

Strickland is the way more experienced mma fighter with tons of UFC experience on his side. He is more of a point fighter however as he’s not much of a finisher. Pereira however has insane power which can end a fight at any moment. Strickland appears to be willing to strike with Pereira and if that happens Pereira could make it a short night for him.

Ian Garry / Sean O’Malley / Alex Pereira parlay +344 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 7/2/22.

We call this the UFC marketing push parlay as the UFC would like to see them all win. The matchups also are also favorable for each fighter to potentially win.

Ian Garry is a talented, undefeated, fighter from Ireland. He see’s himself as being a Conor McGregor type and the UFC would like him to be. He’s receiving a favorable matchup against Green who’s good but is there to be hit.

Sean O’Malley is already a superstar in the UFC. He’s a fan favorite and the UFC would love to see him keep on winning. Munhoz is no joke and is extremely dangerous everywhere. But when you look at the matchup he’s there to be hit and O’Malley is a fast, technical striker.

Alex Pereira will fight Israel Adesanya next for the title assuming both fighters win. It would only be his 4th UFC fight and 8th mma fight total of it happens. Strickland isn’t a wrestler which would be a style that would neutralize Pereira’s insane power. So the UFC is giving Pereira the chance to best utilize his skill set and fight for the title with a win.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com

Image Credit: Needing Art? @needingart

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Capper’s Delight – (2/12/22) UFC 271: Adesanya vs Whittaker 2

admin — Sat, 12 Feb 2022 20:08:33 +0000

Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a winning week for weeks card. Our single bet went 1-0 for a total win of 2.08 units. Our bets for the year are up 1.45 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Strickland (RESULTS)

Jailton Almeida ITD / Alexis Davis parlay (+2.08 units)

Jailton Almeida was ultra impressive in his UFC debut. He was able to take the fight to the ground and ultimately TKO Danilo Marques in round 1. Almeida has a promising future in the UFC and his ground game is going to be hard to deal with going forward.

Alexis Davis had a huge experience advantage in her fight and it showed. Julia Stoliarenko was close to submitting Davis with an arm bar multiple times but Davis managed to survive. Davis went on to dominate the fight from top position and get the decision victory.

UFC 271: Adesanya vs Whittaker 2 (PLAYS)

Sergey Morozov / Bobby Green / Jared Cannonier parlay +274 (2.25 units) Bet was placed on 2/11/22.

Sergey Morozov is a good fighter and gets a favorable matchup against Douglas Silva De Andrade. Morozov should be able to implement his wrestle heavy style and wear out Silva De Andrade as the fight gets later. Silva De Andrade is strong and dangerous but tends to slow down considerably later in fights.

Bobby Green is the definition of a UFC veteran having 17 fights with the promotion. Green is slick and difficult to hit cleanly. We feel Haqparast will have a hard time finding Green and most likely will get outpointed by the end of the fight.

Jared Cannonier has resurrected his career by dropping down to the middleweight division. He’s 4-1 at middleweight with his only loss being to Robert Whittaker. Derek Brunson has had a career resurgence going 5-0 in his last 5 fights. If you dig deeper however his quality of opposition in those fights is questionable. We expect Brunson to have a hard time taking Cannonier down and tiring out trying to do so. Also Cannonier is strong for the division and has a good chance to finish Brunson along the way.

Ronnie Lawrence / Kyler Phillips / Andrei Arlovski parlay +157 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/11/22.

Ronnie Lawrence suffocates his opponents with his nonstop forward pressing style. Mana Martinez has difficulty preventing takedowns. We feel Lawrence will grind out Martinez with his wrestling and most likely get a convincing decision victory.

Kyler Phillips is a very talented fighter and is one that deserves to be ranked. His only problem is his gas tank as he tires badly later in fights. Marcelo Rojo is a fun fighter but there’s levels to MMA and Phillips is levels above Rojo.

Andrei Arlovski is as experienced as it gets and beats fighters he’s supposed to beat. Jared Vanderaa is one of those fighters as he’s probably not UFC quality. We expect Arlovski to use his experience and stay away from danger and get the victory in this spot.

Derrick Lewis Round 1 over Tai Tuivasa +175 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/11/22.

This fight appears to be destined to end in round 1 and both fighters have even said as much. Derrick Lewis has elite power and it a step below the very best in the heavyweight division. Tai Tuivasa has big power as well but is far from being an elite heavyweight. We expect Tuivasa to bring the fight to Lewis and it should only be a matter of time before Lewis
finishes him.

Sergey Morozov / Bobby Green / Jared Cannonier / Ronnie Lawrence / Kyler Phillips / Andrei Arlovski parlay +863 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 2/11/22.

Our last bet is a 6 leg parlay combining the two separate 3 leg parlays. We took a stab at this just in case it’s our night and all of our bets end up hitting.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com

Image Credit: Needing Art? @needingart

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Capper’s Delight – (6/12/21) UFC 263: Adesanya vs Vettori

admin — Sat, 12 Jun 2021 19:12:13 +0000

We got back on the winning track last week. Our bets ended up going 2-2 for a total win of 1.25 units. Year to date we are down 25.11 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Sakai (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

Ilir Latifi by decision (1.75 units)

This fight played out how we thought with Latifi implementing a wrestle heavy game plan. There wasn’t much action but Latifi controlled Boser enough to get the decision in the minds of the judges.

Jair Rozenstruik by KO (1.50 units)

Rozenstruik’s only win condition came to fruition when he got the KO at the end of round 1. He has that “death touch” and is always a threat to end a fight when he lets his hands go.

Losing Bets

Gregory Rodrigues ITD (-1 unit)

This fight appeared to be destined to end inside the distance one way or another. What actually happened was Rodrigues fought smart and landed the more meaningful punches and earned the decision victory.

Walt Harris by KO (-1 unit)

If fights were only 1 minute long Walt Harris would be a world champion. But they’re not and he’s just a fighter who starts fast and fades even faster. Harris is super athletic but his lack of a ground game, take down defense, and cardio limits him greatly.

UFC 263: Adesanya vs Vettori (PLAYS)

Hakeem Dawodu over Movsar Evloev +190 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

This is an exciting matchup between two up and coming prospects in the featherweight division. One has a striking base, the other has a grappling base. We’re going with the striker in this spot.

Hakeem Dawodu is fast and hits hard. He also has good takedown defense and that will be put to the test. Evloev is undefeated but has had to overcome adversity in his last 2 fights. The feeling here is that Dawodu will be able to out-strike Evloev and that will most likely lead him to a decision victory.

Terrance McKinney over Matt Frevola ITD +300 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

Terrance McKinney is making UFC debut on short notice. He’s an explosive fighter who’s never been to a decision in his career. Matt Frevola is well rounded and has much more UFC experience. He has been hurt in multiple fights however which opens the door for McKinney’s fighting style. If McKinney is able to win it’ll most likely be inside the distance.

Carlos Felipe over Jake Collier by decision +150 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

Carlos Felipe is the better fighter with the better cardio. What he hasn’t shown in his UFC career thus far is fight ending power. If that holds true here again then it’s reasonable to believe he will outpoint Collier to a decision victory.

Steven Peterson over Chase Hooper by decision +240 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

This is a matchup between a grizzled veteran and someone who probably shouldn’t be in the UFC at this time. Chase Hooper has 2 victories in the UFC but those were over opponents who also aren’t UFC level. He’s a one dimensional fighter who severely lacks a striking game.

To be fair Steven Peterson hasn’t been impressive in the UFC. But it’s all about the matchup and his high output striking style should fare well against Hooper. When you couple Peterson’s lack of power and Hooper’s toughness then a Peterson decision victory seems probable.

Leon Edwards over Nate Diaz ITD +125 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 6/11/12.

Nate Diaz is a UFC legend and fan favorite. But in 2021 he’s simply overmatched against Leon Edwards. Diaz is ultra tough and is known to be able to take a ton of damage. And that’s exactly what we expect to happen in this matchup.

Leon Edwards is on the cusp of a much deserved title shot. He’s on a 9 fight unbeaten streak and most haven’t been close. He should be able to pick apart Diaz from the outside. If the fight hits the ground he should also be able to land damage from on top. The feeling here is Diaz will take a ton of damage causing the fight to be stopped at some point later in the fight.

Deiveson Figueiredo over Brandon Moreno ITD +130 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

This is a rematch of probably the best fight in UFC Flyweight history. While that fight ended in a draw, we feel this fight will go differently like most rematches do. Brandon Moreno was able to take all of Figueiredo’s shots while landing many of his own in the 1st fight. Figueiredo entered that fight sick and was actually close to pulling out of it.

He enters this fight healthy off a full training camp. While he did struggle to make weight this time around, he’ll be entering this fight in better shape than the 1st fight. We feel he’ll be stronger and his punches will cause a bit more damage this time around. Moreno is game but his body will only be able to take so much damage from a healthy Figueiredo this time.

Carlos Felipe / Steven Peterson / Belal Muhammad / Deiveson Figueiredo / Israel Adesanya / Jamahal Hill ITD parlay +1333 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

Some fights have already been addressed from previous bets so we’ll only breakdown the remaining fights. Belal Muhammad is the better fighter at this point and if he’s able to avoid the ground he will win. Israel Adesanya is coming off his 1st career loss at light heavyweight. Now that he’s back at middleweight we expect him to continue to dominate the division. While Vettori has improved greatly since their 1st fight it seems unlikely he’ll be the one to dethrone Adesanya at middleweight. Jamahal Hill is a dangerous pure striker and Paul Craig has been finished several times in the past. This is a striking mismatch and it should be a matter of time before Hill finishes him.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: Needing Art? @needingartwork

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Capper’s Delight – (9/26/20) UFC 253: Adesanya vs Costa

admin — Sat, 26 Sep 2020 19:21:46 +0000

Unfortunately we had another losing week for the last fight card. Our bets ended up going 1-3 on the night for a total loss of 3.89 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +6.65 units with an overall ROI of 3%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 8%.

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Woodley (RESULTS)

Winning bets

Tyson Nam (+1.11 units)

We pointed out how this matchup was between an established UFC veteran and a UFC newcomer. Nam also had a distinct striking advantage and that came to fruition when Nam was able to hurt and stop Rivera in round 2. Looking back Nam should’ve been a bigger favorite given the big experience and striking advantage he had.

Losing bets

Randa Markos (-2 units)

Looking at this matchup we felt Markos had the better striking and would be able to keep the fight on the feet. She’s an excellent wrestler but we figured she would avoid the ground at all costs because of Dern’s exceptional BJJ. Unfortunately for us she made a huge error and jumped on Dern when Dern missed landing a kick and ended up on her back. Of course it was only a short amount of time after that Dern submitted her in round 1.

Ryan Spann (-2 units)

This was a high variance fight that unfortunately we were on the wrong side of. Spann was able to hurt Walker a couple of times but couldn’t finish him. To Walker’s credit he hung in there and was able to get the finish by throwing some questionable elbows to Spann’s head. Walker will continue to be a fade against athletic, capable fighters.

5 fight parlay – Ewell, Chimaev, Laramie, Price, Covington (-1 unit)

We lost this chalk parlay when Laramie surprisingly was submitted by Minner in less than a minute in round 1. All other pieces of the parlay hit except the Price fight which ended up being scored as a draw. That’s what happens when you parlay too many pieces – one loses and the parlay becomes a loser.

UFC 253: Adesanya vs Costa (PLAYS)

Israel Adesanya over Paulo Costa -200 (5 units MAX BET) Bet was placed on 9/24/20.

This is a rare title fight matchup between two undefeated fighters with distinct style differences – power vs precision. Costa brings a nonstop, relentless, aggressive fight style to the octagon. He comes forward and brings the fight to his opponent. It’s worked every time so far but Adesanya isn’t like his other opponents.

Adesanya is a precision counter striker who should make Costa pay if he comes into the pocket reckless like he normally does. He should use his size and movement to frustrate Costa and either win a lopsided decision or possibly finish him later in the fight.

Hakeem Dawodu over Zubaira Tukhugov -100 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/24/20.

This is a closely lined fight and we’re going with the better striker in this spot. Dawodu is the better pure striker and the faster fighter as well. Tukhugov is the better grappler but actually doesn’t mind having a striking battle. If he reverts to taking the fight to the ground he’s not much of a submission threat and Dawodu has a good get up game. We see Dawodu winning the striking battle and getting the decision victory.

Brandon Royval over Kai Kara-France +200 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/24/20.

This is another striker vs grappler matchup and we’re taking the grappler at nice dog odds. Kara-France is the better striker here but Royval isn’t too far behind. Where Royval excels is in the grappling, specifically submissions. He has an active submission game and it won’t take much for him to capitalize on a submission of Kara-France makes a mistake. We feel the risk is worth the reward of taking Royval here at +200.

Brad Riddell, Dominick Reyes, Ketlen Viera parlay +161 (3 units) Bet was placed on 9/24/20.

Brad Riddell is the superior striker here and is a low key star in the making. Da Silva won’t be able to handle Riddell on the feet and won’t be able to do enough on the ground to get the decision.

Dominick Reyes is going to be too athletic for Blachowicz to handle. Jan is the better grappler but will have a hard time taking down the younger Reyes. As long as the fight plays out on the feet Reyes will be at a huge advantage.

Ketlen Viera is better than Eubanks wherever the fight takes place. Eubanks is coming off a nice win over Avila recently but Viera is on a different level. Viera should rebound nicely from her first defeat here in this spot.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: Needing Art? @needingartwork

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