Fight Island Archives - MMAInformed

Capper’s Delight – (1/23/21) UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2

admin — Sat, 23 Jan 2021 18:05:52 +0000

We’re having a rough start to 2021. There have been 2 events so far and we are -6.12 units year to date. Our bets ended up going 0-3 for a total loss of 5 units for this past Wednesday card. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs Magny (RESULTS)

Winning Bets (None)

Losing Bets

Neil Magny (-2 units)

Our read was completely off on how we thought this fight would go. We felt Magny would be able to use his length and cardio to potentially outpoint Chiesa for the victory. What actually happened was Chiesa being able to implement a wrestle heavy game plan for the full 5 rounds. Magny found himself on his back for much of the fight. He was never able to separate from Chiesa for long periods of time. Chiesa was dominant in victory and now is a legitimate contender in the welterweight division.

Tyson Nam (-2 units)

The fact that this fight played out the whole time on the feet was surprising. What was more surprising is that Schnell was able to outbox and consistently beat Nam to the punch to get a decision victory. Nam tried over and over again to land his big right hand but Schnell was never there for it to change the outcome of the fight. It was a nice rebound victory for Schnell who was coming off a devastating loss in his last fight. Nam’s momentum is now paused as he was seeking a 3rd straight victory.

Mason Jones (-1 unit)

We took a stab on the debuting Jones at dog odds and it didn’t pan out. He was very competitive and the fight was very close on the scorecards. Ultimately Davis was able to land the more meaningful strikes even though he was out struck by Jones. Both fighters stocks go up after winning the fight of the night and Jones proved he belongs in the UFC.

UFC Fight 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2 (PLAYS)

Dan Hooker over Michael Chandler -130 (3 units) Bet was placed on 1/21/21.

Michael Chandler is making his long awaited UFC debut after spending basically his entire career in Bellator. He comes to the UFC at 34 years of age. While he’s still a good fighter, most likely his best days are behind him. The UFC is throwing him right into the fire as they’ve matched him up with the #6 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker.

Hooker’s career started to excel once he made the jump up to lightweight. He’s gone 7-2 at lightweight with victories over Gilbert Burns, Al Iaquinta, and Paul Felder to name a few. His only losses were to Edson Barboza and Dustin Poirier who’s an all time great fighting in the main event. We feel Chandler will either need to finish Hooker early or implement a grapple heavy game plan to get the victory. If the fight plays out on the feet Hooker’s volume could be difficult for Chandler to handle. We’re going with the younger Hooker who’s in his fighting prime to get the victory here.

Makmud Muradov over Andrew Sanchez -150 (2 units) Bet was placed on 1/21/21.

Andrew Sanchez has had his ups and downs in the UFC. He has 8 total wins in the UFC but none of them were against excellent competition. He’s been known to have chin and cardio issues in the past.

Makmud Muradov is 2-0 in the UFC and is in the midst of a 13 fight winning streak. He’s an excellent striker with good power who can end a fight in a hurry. We feel the fight will mostly play out on the feet where Muradov will have a big advantage. If our feeling is correct then Muradov should do enough to get the decision or possible stoppage victory.

Movsar Evloev by decision & Conor McGregor ITD parlay +140 (2 units) Bet was placed on 1/21/21.

Movsar Evloev is an undefeated rising prospect in the bantamweight division. He’s an excellent grappler with good striking. What he isn’t is a finisher as he tends to always go to a decision. We feel the same will happen in this spot against the durable veteran in Nik Lentz.

Conor McGregor is back in the octagon against Dustin Poirier. They fought back in 2014 when Conor finished him in round 1. Both fighters have improved greatly since then but Conor will still hold a significant speed and striking advantage. Dustin is more durable than he was back then but he still takes a lot of damage. He’ll try and take Conor into deep waters where Conor has been known to gas. Conor knows this so we feel it’s only a matter of time before he capitalizes on an opening and ends the fight shortly after.

Amir Albazi over Zhalgas Zhumagulov -110 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 1/21/21.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov lost his UFC debut in a competitive fight against Raulian Paiva. He wasn’t active enough to get the decision. Now he’s facing Amir Albazi who won his UFC debut by 1st round submission. Albazi is an excellent grappler who’s constantly looking for submissions. He has excellent wrestling and decent striking. We feel he will be the more active of the 2 fighters and that should be enough to get him the victory in this spot.

Brad Tavares by decision over Antonio Carlos Jr. +160 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 1/21/21.

The breakdown of this fight appears to be fairly simple. If the fight plays out mostly on the feet it favors Tavares. Or if it plays out mostly on the ground that would favor Carlos Jr. We’re of the belief that Tavares should be able to keep the fight standing where he’ll be the faster, better striker. Tavares isn’t a big puncher nor is he a submission fighter so his mostly likely method of victory would appear to be by decision.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: Dosbrak @dosbrak

The post Capper’s Delight – (1/23/21) UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2 appeared first on MMAInformed.

Capper’s Delight – (1/20/21) UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs Magny

admin — Wed, 20 Jan 2021 06:34:28 +0000

We started off the 2021 year on a losing note. Our bets ended up going 1-2 for a total loss of -1.12 units. We still show an all time profit of +3.32 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Kattar (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

Max Holloway +3.13 units

We were able to hit our 5 unit max play bet on Max Holloway for +3.13 units. Our max bet plays are now 9-3 all time. This turned out to be as one sided of a fight as you can get. Max was able to completely outclass Kattar in a 5 round beat down. We felt Max was being written off and the close odds said as much. It was an all time performance by Holloway. To Kattar’s credit he was tough as can be, lasting the full 5 rounds.

Losing Bets

Austin Lingo ITD (-3 units)

This was the fight that could’ve kickstarted our year in the right direction. Lingo started off strong and was able to knockdown Kilburn in the first 20 seconds of round 1. He then proceeded to hurt Kilburn badly about a minute later but Kilburn somehow managed to survive and ultimately made it to the final bell. So we went from potentially winning 7.5 units to losing 3 units.

Austin Lingo, Carlos Felipe, & Dusko Todorovic parlay (-1.25 units)

Lingo started off the parlay right by getting a dominant unanimous decision victory. We then were very fortunate to be on the right side of the decision with Carlos Felipe. Many including myself felt he should’ve lost that fight. The parlay ultimately died on the last leg when Soriano was able to finish Todorovic in the 1st round. Todorovic fought reckless with his hands down. He was able to get away with it for a short while but Soriano ultimately was able to find his chin and get the victory.

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs Magny (PLAYS)

Neil Magny over Michael Chiesa -145 (2 units) Bet was placed on 1/18/21.

The main event features a matchup between 2 fighters riding 3 fight winning streaks. Michael Chiesa has been perfect since his move up to welterweight. Not having to kill himself to make weight has helped him although his competition has been against mostly undersized opponents. He’ll look to get the fight to the ground where he holds the grappling and submissions edge.

Neil Magny is fighting in good form right now with victories over some decent opponents in his last 3 fights. He’s the naturally bigger fighter here and should look to keep the fight standing. Magny isn’t much of a power puncher and has zero submission skills but he makes up for it with volume and cardio. He should look to use his nearly 5 inch reach advantage and try to take Chiesa into deep waters. If he’s able to do that and stay clear from Chiesa’s submission game, he should be able to get the victory here most likely by decision.

Tyson Nam over Matt Schnell -130 (2 units) Bet was placed on 1/18/21.

This is a nice matchup between a clash of styles in the flyweight division. Matt Schnell should look to get the fight to the ground where he does his best work with his submission game. He was on a nice little 4 fight winning streak until he decided to have a stand up war with Alexandre Pantoja.

Tyson Nam is one of the hardest punchers in the flyweight division. He’s coming here off of 2 impressive KO / TKO victories albeit against lesser competition. Nam has fought the better competition throughout his career and is hard to take down with good submission defense. We feel that Schnell believes in his own striking too much and will be willing to mix it up on the feet with Nam. That would be a mistake given that Schnell has been KO’d 3 times in his last 7 fights. Nam is much the cleaner striker and has a devastating counter right. He should get the victory here with a good chance of it coming by KO / TKO.

Mason Jones over Mike Davis +140 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 1/18/21.

Mike Davis made a name for himself by losing a war against Sodiq Yusuff on Dana White’s Contender Series 2 & 1/2 years ago. He didn’t get a contract in a loss but was brought in as a short notice replacement against Gilbert Burns 3 fights later. Of course he was completely outclassed by Burns and didn’t put up much of a fight. His only UFC victory was against Thomas Gifford who should’ve never been in the UFC.

Mason Jones comes to the UFC with a perfect 10-0 record fighting under the Cage Warriors promotion. He was a double champion there and has fought the better competition as a whole throughout his career. This could be the fight of the night as both fighters should look to mix it up early and often. We’ll take the naturally bigger fighter Jones here at dog odds against Davis who’s also not proven against UFC caliber fighters.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: UFC

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Capper’s Delight – (1/16/21) UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Kattar

admin — Fri, 15 Jan 2021 19:47:20 +0000

Welcome back to year number two of Capper’s Delight. We had a small but profitable year in 2020. When all was said and done we finished the year +4.34 units total. That’s not much but profit is profit. We’ll look to improve on that number in 2021. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Kattar (PLAYS)

Max Holloway over Calvin Kattar -160 (5 units) ***MAX BET*** Bet was placed on 1/14/21.

We’re starting the year off with a max bet (no pun intended). Max Holloway is arguably the greatest featherweight in UFC history. He’s fought and beaten the best the division has to offer. Max is currently on a 2 fight losing streak however, with both losses coming against current UFC Featherweight Champion – Alexander Volkanovski. The first loss against Volkanovski was definitive however the rematch was close and many feel Max should’ve been given the victory.

Max is still only 29 years old and is a top 3 elite fighter in his division. The narrative that he’s on the decline might be a bit premature. He could’ve easily been given the decision in the rematch against Volkanovski making him the current 2 time champion. But because he didn’t win the rematch he’s now lost back to back fights and is on the decline?

Calvin Kattar is a good fighter who’s in the best form of his career. His boxing is not only one of the best in his division but in all of MMA. He brings good technical form and has good power. Kattar also has good cardio and an excellent chin.

This is a major step up in competition for Kattar however and has lost in those spots in the past. We feel that Kattar is a good fighter but he’s not on Max’s level. Max should be able to out volume and outclass Kattar to most likely a decision victory.

Austin Lingo over Jacob Kilburn ITD +250 (3 units) Bet was placed on 1/14/21.

This is a low level fight between two fighters who are 0-1 in the UFC. The only reason we bet the fight is because we were able to get an incredibly off line which was a dollar better than anywhere else. Austin Lingo came to the UFC with some hype but ran into Youssef Zalal in his debut. Zalal has proven to be a good fighter and is currently 3-1 in the UFC.

Jacob Kilburn also ran into a good prospect in his UFC debut (Billy Quarantillo) but he was a big underdog and fought like one. Lingo has power and Kilburn gets hit often. Kilburn doesn’t appear to be UFC quality and will be a big step down in competition for Lingo. We feel this is a good spot for Lingo to get his 1st UFC win in impressive fashion after a disappointing debut.

Austin Lingo, Carlos Felipe, Dusko Todorovic parlay +241 (1.25 units) Bet was placed on 1/14/21.

As stated earlier Lingo came to the UFC as a hyped prospect but was upset in his debut by Youssef Zalal. He should be able to beat Kilburn rather easily. Carlos Felipe bounced back with a victory after losing in his UFC debut. He’s a better technical boxer with more output than Tafa. Dusko Todorovic is more well rounded than Soriano and has beaten the better competition. He should be able to do enough to get the victory in what should be an exciting fight.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: Needing Art? @needingartwork

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Capper’s Delight – (10/24/20) UFC 254: Khabib vs Gaethje

admin — Sat, 24 Oct 2020 05:20:45 +0000

Sadly we had a horrific week of betting last week. We lost our max bet play and are now 6-3 all time on max bets. Our bets ended up going 2-5 on the night for a total loss of 6.65 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +3.5 units with an overall ROI of 1%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 9%.

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs Korean Zombie (RESULTS)

Winning bets

James Krause (+1.25 units)

James Krause came into his fight against Claudio Silva in the best fighting form of his life. He was able to keep that going with a unanimous decision victory. Krause was able to play a good game of hit and don’t get hit for the duration of the fight. Silva tried to catch Krause but he was just a step slow all fight long.

Jonathan Martinez (+1.10 units)

Jonathan Martinez is improving with every fight and was able to get the unanimous decision victory over Almeida. This was Almeida’s 1st fight after nearly 3 years and the ring rust showed. Martinez consistently beat him to the punch with his aggressive approach. He should get a ranked fighter in his next fight.

Losing bets

Korean Zombie (-5 units) straight bet & (-0.5 units) ITD

We underestimated Brian Ortega’s abilities and paid dearly for it. The Korean Zombie came into this fight with impressive stoppage victories over Frankie Edgar & Renato Moicano. Brian Ortega was coming into the fight after a life changing beat down loss to Max Holloway.

We made the mistake of writing off Ortega and not believing he would make any improvements during his time off. He dramatically improved his striking and more so his striking defense. When you couple those improvements along with his BJJ game, he’s going to be a problem for Alexander Volkanovski.

Jamie Mullarkey (-2 units)

This was a boring fight with not a lot of action that took place. With that being said Mullarkey did more overall and should’ve been given the decision in our opinion. He was able to take down Ziam multiple times and controlled him for almost half of the fight. While he didn’t do much with the control time the fact is he still controlled him. That’s better than being controlled and not doing anything about it.

Modestas Bukauskas (-1 units) & (0.5 units) ITD

We took a stab on Bukauskas and it turned out to be a bad read. The thinking was that he possibly could keep the fight standing and be able to out strike Crute on the feet. He was able to keep the fight standing but we didn’t see Crute being the better striker. Crute was able to clip him and finish him rather easily in round 1.

UFC 254: Khabib vs Gaethje

Justin Gaethje over Khabib Nurmagomedov +260 (2 units) & ITD +450 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/22/20.

Win or lose Justin Gaethje is the kind of fighter that will fight for your money. He came to the UFC undefeated and was able to win his UFC debut. However he lost his next 2 UFC fights, both of which he was winning. His reckless style caught up with him against high level fighters such as Eddie Alvarez & Dustin Poirier.

After the Poirier loss however he changed his fighting style from reckless to measured and has gone 4-0 since with 4 dominating finish victories. He’s pound for pound one of the hardest hitters in all of MMA. His leg kicks are devasting and has good cardio. Gaethje transitioned to MMA from a strong Division 1 wrestling base.

He’s never really had to rely on his wrestling but most definitely will need to against Khabib. This fight is going to boil down to where will it take place. If Gaethje is able to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing he should cruise to either a decision win or even stoppage victory. However if Khabib is able to take the fight to the ground like he has with everyone else then Gaethje will be in for a long night. Either way getting a fighter of Gaethje’s caliber at close to 3-1 is worth the risk.

Jared Cannonier over Robert Whittaker -110 (2 units) & ITD +150 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/22/20.

Robert Whittaker is one of the greatest middleweights the UFC has ever seen. He’s the former middleweight champion and is 9-1 all time at middleweight in the UFC. The problem is that he’s been in many tough fights and has taken a lot of damage recently. He’s been knocked down 5 times in his last 3 fights. Now he’s facing a former heavyweight & light heavyweight in Jared Cannonier.

Cannonier is undefeated at middleweight going 3-0 with 3 finishes. He brings big power to the middleweight division. We feel that he’s not going to be afraid of Whittaker’s power and it’ll only be a matter of time before he lands something that will hurt him. If he’s able to hurt Whittaker he will most likely finish him shortly after.

Casey Kenney over Nathaniel Wood -180 (2 units) & +300 ITD (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/22/20.

Casey Kenney is an up and coming contender in the UFC’s bantamweight division. He’s very well rounded wherever the fight goes. Kenney has fought the better competition in the UFC and prior to coming to the UFC

Nathaniel Wood is a good fighter himself and is big for the division. He was on the fast track to becoming a contender himself until he was stopped by John Dodson 2 fights ago. This should be a good fight but we feel Kenney is the better fighter and he should get the victory.

Alexander Volkov over Walt Harris -180 (1 unit) & +175 ITD (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/22/20.

Walt Harris is the faster, more athletic fighter in this matchup. He does have 2 glaring issues however. Those are his lack of cardio and ground game. So basically his path to victory is to finish Volkov early.

Volkov on the other hand is the more experienced and well rounded fighter. He’s been in there with some of the biggest names
in the heavyweight division. The longer the fight goes the better for Volkov. He just needs to be careful in the early going and he should be able to get the victory here.

Shavkat Rakhmonov over Alex Oliveira -120 (1 unit) & +275 ITD (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/22/20.

Rakhmonov is making his UFC debut while have a perfect 12-0 record. All 12 of his fights have finished inside the distance. Oliveira on the other hand is a UFC veteran of 18 fights within the promotion. He’s fought some of the best the UFC has to offer. Cowboy is an exciting fighter but has been known to check out once the going gets tough. We’re going to take a shot on the newcomer to get the job done in his UFC debut.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: Needing Art? @needingartwork

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Capper’s Delight – (10/3/20) UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana

admin — Sat, 03 Oct 2020 18:07:46 +0000

We got back on the winning track for UFC 253. Our bets ended up going 3-1 on the night for a total profit of 2.50 units. Our max bets are now 6-2 all time. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +9.15 units with an overall ROI of 4%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 11%.

UFC 253: Adesanya vs Costa (RESULTS)

Winning bets

Israel Adesanya (+2.50 units)

We felt strongly that Adesanya was going to win this fight. That’s why we max bet him and he didn’t disappoint. Costa was unable to do anything except stand around and get his leg chopped down. By the time he was close enough to engage Adesanya landed a clean shot to his ear which dropped him. He proceeded to jump on top and get the 2nd round TKO finish shortly after.

Hakeem Dawodu (+1 unit)

This was a close fight and the odds reflected it. Tukhugov started off fast by winning the 1st round. The 2nd round was also close but Dawodu got the nod as his striking was starting to get on track. Tukhugov either was gassed or thought he banked the first 2 rounds because he offered very little in round 3. Dawodu was awarded the split decision victory.

Brandon Royval (+2 units)

We took a stab on Royval here and he didn’t disappoint. Going into the fight we felt his best chance at victory would be by submission and that’s what happened. However we were surprised by the relentless pace he put on Kara-France. He survived a knockdown and was able to get one of his own shortly after. Royval is an exciting flyweight and is already scheduled for a title eliminator fight against Brandon Moreno next month.

Losing bets

Brad Riddell, Dominick Reyes, Ketlen Viera parlay (-3 units)

Once again we came up short by 1 fight on a chalk parlay. Riddell did his part and won a closely contested fight. Viera also was able to get the victory in a close fight. The parlay died when Blachowicz was able to pull off the surprise victory over Reyes in round 2. Blachowicz took the fight to Reyes and Reyes offered little resistance. Our read was off thinking that Reyes would be too athletic for Blachowicz to handle.

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana (PLAYS)

Germaine de Randamie over Julianna Peña -150 (3 units) Bet was placed on 10/2/20.

The breakdown here is simple. For Peña to win she has to take the fight to the ground as her striking is very suspect. For de Randamie to win she has to keep the fight standing where she has an enormous striking edge.

We see the fight taking place on the feet where de Randamie has the clear advantage. Peña will have a hard time getting the fight to the ground and will take lots of damage trying to get the fight there. De Randamie should at least coast to a unanimous decision with a KO / TKO being a reasonable possibility.

Charles Jourdain ITD over Joshua Culibao -122 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/2/20.

We don’t normally like to bet on props but this looks like a good spot for an inside the distance bet. This is a mismatch on paper, hence the wide line. Jourdain is better everywhere the fight takes place. He also has the advantages in experience and level of competition.

Culibao honestly isn’t UFC caliber and is only here because he filled in on short notice in his last fight and was undefeated at the time. Jourdain is an explosive fighter and it should only be a matter of time before he lands something big and takes Culibao out.

Kyler Phillips ITD over Cameron Else -125 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/20/20.

Once again we find ourselves playing a prop bet under similar circumstances. This also appears to be a mismatch with the odds saying as much. Phillips is a legit UFC caliber fighter, Else is not.

He’s only here because he’s stepping in on short notice. The only thing he has going for him is experience but that was against suspect competition in the European regional scene. Phillips is too talented to not be able to finish a fighter of Else’s caliber.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: UFC

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Capper’s Delight – (7/25/20) UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Till

admin — Sat, 25 Jul 2020 15:47:06 +0000

We had a winning night of betting for UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2. Our bets ended up going 4-3 on the night for a total profit of 1.98 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +23.34 units with an overall ROI of 15%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 30%.

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2 (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

Deiveson Figueiredo (+2.33 units)

We hit our 5 unit max bet on Figueiredo with ease when he submitted Benavidez in round 1. Our max bets our now 5-1 on the year. Looking back however, Figueiredo inside the distance would’ve been the better play. We had a strong feeling that Figueiredo was going to win. It was very unlikely that Benavidez would be able to last 5 rounds with the amount of power Figueiredo brings to the table. He clipped Benavidez early and went for the submission with his underrated BJJ. Benavidez showed heart being able to escape a couple of times but Figueiredo was not to be denied and ultimately put him to sleep.

Brett Johns (+1.90 units)

This was the 1st of 3 underdog bets we hit on the night. Montel Jackson had all the hype coming into this fight with his crazy size and length. What most people failed to realize is he was inexperienced against good competition. Brett Johns on the other hand was battle tested already against the likes of Pedro Munoz and Aljamain Sterling. Johns was able to use his experience to grind out a decision victory.

Joel Alvarez (+3.05 units)

We said going into this fight that Joe Duffy shouldn’t be this big of a favorite over anyone at this point in his career. He had a few red flags coming into this matchup and we were correct. Alvarez showed improved striking and surprisingly got the better of Duffy on the feet. Duffy made the mistake of getting caught in a guillotine while shooting for a takedown and was submitted in round 1.

Askar Askarov (+1.70 units)

Alexandre Pantoja was getting all the attention going into this fight. He was rumored to be on standby in case someone was forced out of the Flyweight Championship fight later in the night. Askar Askarov wasn’t having any of it. He implemented his aggressive grappling game and pressured Pantoja throughout the fight. Pantoja slowed down quite a bit as the fight went on and ultimately lost a unanimous decision.

Losing Bets

Luana Carolina (-1 unit)

We felt going into this fight that Carolina would have a good chance to win a decision over Lipski based on her high output. To my surprise the fight hit the ground early and finished early. Lipski was able to submit Carolina with a gruesome kneebar that most likely will keep Carolina from fighting for a good amount of time.

Marc Diakiese (-3 units)

We felt Diakiese was coming into this fight in good form and held a big MMA experience advantage over Fiziev. It didn’t matter because this was Rafael Fiziev’s coming out party. He was clearly the superior striker and it showed. We made the mistake of dismissing Fiziev’s talent because he lost his UFC debut and didn’t look overly impressive in his next fight against Alex White.

Kelvin Gastelum (-3 units)

We felt this would be a rebound spot for Gastelum against Hermansson. It turned out to be a rebound spot for Hermansson instead. We felt Gastelum would have the big advantage on the feet and would be ok if the fight hit the ground. That wasn’t the case as Hermansson was able to get a quick heel hook submission in round 1.

Gastelum clearly isn’t the same fighter after that war he had with Israel Adesanya. He’s now 0-3 in his last 3 fights and looks lost at middleweight. He’d be better suited to drop back down to welterweight where he won’t be at such a size disadvantage.

Overall we had a winning night but we gave back too many units specifically with the Gastelum and Diakiese bets. Our unit sizing was off on those fights and we’ll need to make adjustments going forward. We had way too many units in play overall (15) for that card.

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Till (PLAYS)

Francisco Trinaldo over Jai Herbert -140 (2 units -140) Bet was placed on 7/22/20.

Jai Herbert is making his UFC debut with a 10-1 overall record. Francisco Trinaldo’s record in the UFC alone is 15-6. Needless to say there’s a huge difference in experience between the two fighters. Trinaldo is the very definition of a grizzled veteran. He’s going to be 42 years old next month but hasn’t shown signs of falling off a cliff. Trinaldo’s coming into this fight a winner of 3 of his last 4 fights.

Herbert is going to need to be an exceptional talent to beat a fighter like Trinaldo in his UFC debut. He’s coming here on a 6 fight winning streak but this is no longer Cage Warriors. He’s now fighting someone who’s been a staple in the tough lightweight division for years. The odds appear to be closer than they should be.

UPDATE – Trinaldo missed weight by 4 pounds. We’ll have to wait and see what effect if any this has on the fight.

Movsar Evloev & Marina Rodriguez parlay +140 (2 units) Bet was placed on 7/23/20.

Movsar Evloev is a pressure fighter with a strong grappling base. Mike Grundy is a lower output fighter with a strong wrestling base. If each fighters ground games cancel each other out and the fight plays out on the feet Evloev will have the clear advantage. Even if the fight goes to the ground Evloev will be fine and may even hold the advantage.

Grundy was rocked in his last fight against Nad Narimani but was able to recover and finish him later in the round. He will need to most likely finish Evloev to get the victory here because winning by submission or decision seems unlikely. The most likely outcome is Evloev winning a decision.

Marina Rodriguez is an elite MMA striker. Carla Esparza is one of the best wrestlers in women’s MMA. This is an interesting matchup between two contrasting styles. Esparza has shown improved striking in her last few fights but will be making a huge mistake if she thinks she can out-strike Rodriguez on the feet. Her best path to victory is to try and take Rodriguez down and control her on the mat.

Rodriguez has been taken down in almost all of her UFC fights but has shown the ability to make it back to her feet. She comes forward with a relentless pace and has a dangerous clinch game. Most of the fight should play out on the feet and Rodriguez should do enough to get the victory.

Peter Sobotta over Alex Oliveira +145 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 7/24/20

This will be Peter Sobotta’s first fight in almost 2 1/2 years. Meanwhile “Cowboy” Oliveira has fought 6 times during that same time frame. He’s an exciting fighter but has lost 3 of his last 4 fights and is currently in the worst slump of his career. Sobotta has wins over Nicolas Dalby and Ben Saunders (before he completely fell out a cliff). He’s very live in this fight to win by decision or inside the distance and at odds of +145 the value is good.

Bethe Correia over Pannie Kianzad +140 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 7/24/20.

Pannie Kianzad is the younger, more technical fighter. The problem is its hard to find a nice win on her record. Her record is littered with wins against fighters who are not UFC quality. When she takes a step up in competition she loses.

Bethe Correia isn’t anything special but she’s an established UFC fighter. She’s fought for a UFC title and has a few good wins and some close losses to other UFC mainstay fighters. Even at 37 years old she’s still a tough out. She’s more than capable of grinding out a close win at dog odds.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: UFC

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Capper’s Delight – (7/1/20) UFC 251: Usman vs Masvidal

admin — Thu, 09 Jul 2020 16:30:21 +0000

We had a rough night of betting for UFC Fight Night – Poirier vs Hooker. Our bets ended up going 1-3 on the night for a total loss of 4.3 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +25.64 units with an overall ROI of 20%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 54%.

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs Hooker (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

Dustin Poirier (+2.7 units *MAX BET*)

The only bright spot of the evening was hitting our max bet on Poirier. We’re now 4-0 on the year on 5 unit max bets. I mentioned in last weeks breakdown that there’s levels to this MMA game and Poirier proved me right. Hooker was ultra tough in this fight taking the first 2 rounds on all 3 judges scorecards. However he took a good amount of damage in those rounds and proceeded to slow down dramatically for the rest of the fight. Poirier was able to take control of the fight in round 3 and was much the stronger fighter for the rest of the fight. His experience in big fights against elite competition was the difference and got him the victory.

Losing Bets

Jordan Griffin (-3 units)

I made the mistake of giving Griffin too much credit for his fight experience and not enough credit to Zalal for his talent. Griffin had his moments in the fight but couldn’t capitalize on them. He tested Zalal’s ground game a couple of times and to my surprise Zalal was able to stay composed and make his way back to his feet. And that’s where he won the fight being the much more active striker landing more than twice the amount of strikes while throwing nearly twice as much. Zalal even showed off his grappling game by being able to rattle off nearly 4 minutes of control time as well. No wonder this line flipped with Zalal opening as the dog and going off as the favorite.

Luis Peña (-3 units)

Luis Peña is a very talented fighter who isn’t living up to his full potential. He’s now 3-3 in the UFC and simply put can’t be trusted to put your hard earned money on. I made the mistake of trusting him with my money as an over 2-1 favorite. I thought he’d be ok on the feet against Worthy and he was. I really though he’d have a huge advantage on the ground and he dominated round 2 with his grappling. I expected more of the same in round 3 but to my surprise Worthy never gave him the opportunity. Then Worthy went on to shock the MMA world by submitting Peña with a guillotine choke shortly after a failed takedown attempt. Plain and simple I made a bad bet on a underachieving fighter at bad odds.

Brendan Allen ITD (-1 unit)

Brendan Allen extended his UFC record to 3-0 with a unanimous decision victory over Kyle Daukaus. The problem is we bet him to win inside the distance. That was looking like a good bet less than a minute into the fight when Allen landed a huge knee to the face of Daukaus dropping him to the canvas. He proceeded to mount Daukaus and it was looking like the end was near. Daukaus however was ultra tough and his strong BJJ game kept him from being submitted. He went on to have his moments, even having a dominant round 3 against Allen. I underestimated Daukaus’ durability and skill level and the result was another unit lost.

This was the first card in the last 9 UFC cards where we lost more than a unit betting. It was bound to happen at some point. Now that we got that out of our system let’s see if we can begin another winning streak starting with UFC 251.

UFC 251: Usman vs Masvidal (PLAYS)

Volkan Oezdemir over Jiri Prochazka (3 units -150) Bet was placed on 6/29/20.

Volkan Oezdemir is the 7th ranked light heavyweight and is 5-3 all time in the UFC. He was fast tracked to a title shot against Daniel Cormier after winning his 1st 3 UFC fights. Since then he’s gone 2-2 in his last 4 fights but has actually evolved as a fighter. He lost to Anthony Smith in a fight that was very close prior to being submitted in round 3. Next he lost a split decision to Dominick Reyes in a fight many thought he should’ve been given the victory. Then he finished Ilir Latifi in round 2 sending him to the heavyweight division. Finally he defeated Alexander Rakic in a close fight derailing the Rakic hype train. Now he faces UFC newcomer Jiri Prochazka. Prochazka enters the UFC with an impressive 26-3-1 record while riding a 10 fight win streak. There’s a huge difference in the quality of opposition between the 2 fighters. Oezdemir has held his own against the elite of the UFC. Prochazka on the other hand has been feasting on former UFC journeymen in his last 2 fights. Prochazka is talented but the UFC isn’t doing him any favors by giving him Oezdemir for his debut. I expect the improving Oezdemir and his wealth of experience against elite competition to get him the win in this fight.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov over Raulian Paiva (1 unit +165) Bet was placed on 7/1/20.

I generally have a rule that I don’t bet on fighters making their UFC debut. The main reason is it’s a big unknown how they’re going to fare against UFC caliber competition. Well that’s not the case with Zhumagulov. In 2 of his last 3 fights he holds victories over fighters who have competed and won in the UFC. He’s a talented striker who wins a lot of fights by decision because of his high output, pressuring style. Paiva in the other hand is 1-2 in the UFC. He lost a close fight in his debut against Kai Kara-France. Then he lost against Rogerio Bontorin by doctor stoppage due to a bad cut he suffered early in the fight. Paiva completely demolished soon to be ex-UFC fighter Mark De La Rosa in his last fight. These 2 fighters are pretty evenly matched in my opinion but the odds don’t reflect it. I’ll gladly take my chances in a fight like that getting generous dog odds of +165.

Rose Namajunas over Jessica Andrade (3 units -175) Bet was placed on 7/1/20.

This is a rematch of a fight that took place 14 months ago. Andrade captured the UFC Women’s Strawweight title by the rare slam KO in round 2. Prior to that however, we all seen what was happening. Rose was putting on a boxing clinic. It seemed like everything she threw was landing on Andrade’s face. Unless Andrade drastically tightened up her striking defense, I see more of the same happening in the rematch. Plus it’s now a 3 round fight so Andrade is going to have less time to try and finish Rose again. If Rose is in the right state of mind and truly misses having her championship belt, she should coast to an easy victory over Andrade in the rematch.

Maxim Grishin over Marcin Tybura (1 unit -135) Bet was placed on 7/5/20.

Once again I find myself placing a bet on a fighter making his UFC debut. And it’s on a fighter who’s stepping in on short notice who’s moving up a weight class. To make matters worse I got in early thinking money would start to come in on Grishin and the opposite occurred. This bet is more about fading Tybura than anything else. He’s lost 4 of his last 6 fights and his only wins during that stretch were against Stefan Struve and Sergey Spivak. He hasn’t been the same fighter ever since he was KO’d by Derrick Lewis in a fight he was dominating. Grishin on the other hand has only lost 1 of his last 23 fights dating back to 2011. He’s the better striker and will be at an advantage for as long as the fight plays out on the feet. Another plus is that Tybura isn’t a huge heavyweight so the move up in weight class shouldn’t be much of a disadvantage for Grishin.

Alexander Volkanovski over Max Holloway & Calvin Kattar over Dan Ige parlay (5 units +100 *MAX BET*) Bet was placed on 7/9/20.

Max Holloway is only 28 years old and is arguably the greatest featherweight of all time. Sadly, I believe his better days have already passed him by. It appears the loss against Poirier took something out of him. Now he’s getting a chance to avenge his loss and win back his title against Volkanovski. I just don’t see it happening. Alexander Volkanovski is a wrecking ball. He’s the faster, stronger, striker between the two. He also has cardio for days. As long as Max continues to absorb the amount of damage he usually takes, Volkanovski will win again. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up finishing Holloway this time around.

Calvin Kattar is on the verge of becoming a star in the featherweight division. He easily has the best boxing skills in the division and possibly in all of the UFC. Dan Ige is no slouch himself but this is a bad matchup for him. Ige likes to press forward and bang but that’s not going to work for him in this matchup. Kattar is the better striker and will make Ige pay on the feet. Ige’s last loss was against Julio Arce who outboxed him and Kattar is much better than Arce. Ige is the better grappler but will have a hard time taking Kattar down. If he can’t get the fight to the ground he’s going to pieced up and possibly finished.

Jose Aldo over Petr Yan (1 unit +205) Bet was placed on 7/11/20.

Petr Yan is all the rage right now in the UFC’s bantamweight division. He’s 6-0 in his UFC career and has been given a shot at the title in just 2 years. A lot of capper’s are predicting a late stoppage for Yan because of his power and relentless pace. He very well may stop Aldo and win the title but I’m not there yet. While he’s 14-1 and undefeated in his UFC career, he’s lacking a signature win. When a fighter is fighting for a title and doesn’t have a signature win (against a top 3 opponent) on his record the alarm bells go off. His best win is against Jimmie Rivera and he was losing a good portion of that fight. He was dropped by John Dodson 3 fights ago. Jose Aldo is on another level compared to those guys. He’s a former champion with multiple signature wins in his career and has fought the best of the best. More importantly he hasn’t fallen off a cliff yet. He was very competitive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes. Many believe he should’ve won that fight. Jose Aldo at 33 years old is still a huge step up in competition for Yan. He tends to get hit fairly easy and Aldo still carries the power to finish him. Getting a fighter of Aldo’s caliber at 2-1 against an unproven fighter on this level is well worth the risk.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: Lanta Brown

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