Figueiredo Archives - MMAInformed

Capper’s Delight – (12/12/20) UFC 256: Figueiredo vs Moreno

admin — Sat, 12 Dec 2020 15:20:44 +0000

We had another profitable night of bets making it back to back weeks. Some of our bets were refunded as the Landwehr and Santos fights were cancelled last second. Our bets ended up going 3-2 on the night for a total win of 1.53 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +7.11 units with an overall ROI of 2%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 4%.

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Vettori (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

Louis Smolka & Jose Quiñonez fight doesn’t go the distance (+1.20 units)

This was the 8th Louis Smolka fight in a row that failed to make it to the final horn. The fight played out pretty much as expected with Smolka pressing the pace and Quiñonez actively countering. Ultimately the fight came to an end in round 2 after Smolka was able to get a ground and pound stoppage.

Ilia Topuria & Jamahal Hill parlay (+1.08 units)

This was originally supposed to be a 3 leg parlay but became a 2 leg parlay when the Taila Santos fight got cancelled. Ilia Topuria proved to be too much on the feet for Damon Jackson to handle and got the easy 1st round TKO. Jamahal Hill was also impressive in his toughest test to date, getting a 2nd round TKO over Ovince St. Preux.

Jamahal Hill ITD over Ovince St.Preux (+0.75 units)

We also hit a small bet on Hill winning inside the distance against St. Preux. Our prediction of Hill being too athletic for OSP came true when he was able to hurt and ultimately finish him in round 2. Hill is going to continue to be a problem for anybody who chooses to have a stand up fight with him.

Losing bets

Jack Hermansson (-1 unit)

We knew this was a risky fight to bet on because it was such a close matchup. It turned out to be Marvin Vettori’s coming out party as he nearly finished Hermansson in round 1. He then proceeded to show excellent cardio and output and got a convincing unanimous decision victory.

Matt Wiman (-0.5 units)

We couldn’t have been any more wrong betting on Wiman here as he lost in just 22 seconds. It’s safe to say nobody could’ve predicted a quick slam KO ending this fight. Matt Wiman was let go from the UFC and has since retired from the sport of MMA.

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs Moreno (PLAYS)

Brandon Moreno over Deiveson Figueiredo +240 (1 unit) & wins by decision +650 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 12/10/20.

Deiveson Figueiredo has a lot of well deserved hype behind him at the moment. He’s the reigning champ coming off 4 consecutive finishes with 3 of them coming in the 1st round. Figueiredo is pound for pound one of the hardest hitters in all of MMA. The only times he’s looked human was when he got taken to decision against fighters who implemented a wrestle heavy game plan – Jarred Brooks & Jussier Formiga.

Brandon Moreno would be wise to follow a similar game plan. Figueiredo is known for having a tough weight cut and is coming off his 2nd one in just 21 days. Moreno is battle tested and very well rounded. The feeling here is Moreno will look to extend the fight while avoiding Figueiredo’s power. If successful he would put himself in a position to win a decision by out voluming the dangerous Figueiredo.

Virna Jandiroba over Mackenzie Dern +150 (1 unit) & wins by decision +240 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 12/10/20.

This is a matchup between two decorated BJJ practitioners. Typically when these type of matchups occur the fights tend to play out on the feet. While neither fighter is a very good striker we give the slight edge to Jandiroba.

Mackenzie Dern will submit fighters with limited BJJ skills. Unfortunately for her Virna Jandiroba doesn’t fit that mold. So if she’s unable to submit Jandiroba then she’ll need to rely on her striking to get the victory. We’re betting against that happening at a nice number and added Jandiroba by decision at a nicer number.

Billy Quarantillo, Daniel Pineda, Rafael Fiziev, & Tony Ferguson parlay +572 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/10/20.

Billy Quarantillo is known for his cardio and for coming on later in fights. If he’s able to survive the 1st round he should be able to cruise to a victory.

Daniel Pineda hasn’t lost in his last 7 fights dating back to 2017. Cub Swanson is 1-4 in his last 5 fights and his best wins came over 6 years ago. We’re taking the better “now” fighter.

Rafael Fiziev is an elite striker with fast hands and great reflexes. Renato Moicano is much slower and has been KO’d in 2 of his last 3 fights. If the fight stays standing which we feel it will, Fiziev should be too much for Moicano to handle.

Tony Ferguson has beaten the better competition and has heart for days. Charles Oliveira has been beating mostly average fighters during his current win streak. He’s quit multiple times in the past and as the saying goes, once a quitter always a quitter.

Billy Quarantillo over Gavin Tucker by decision +180 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/10/20.

As we stated earlier Billy Quarantillo has great cardio and gets better as the fight goes longer. He’s been in bad spots early in fights and will need to avoid that here against Tucker. Quarantillo is not a big puncher and we feel his most likely path to victory is by way of decision.

Chase Hooper over Peter Barrett by submission +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/10/20.

Chase Hooper has bad striking but is the superior grappler here. Peter Barrett might not be UFC caliber and has been subbed twice in his career. If Hooper wins there’s a good chance it’ll be by submission. We got an excellent line while trying to turn an over -300 favorite into plus money.

Jacare Souza over Kevin Holland by submission +400 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/10/20.

This is a closely lined fight between a grizzled veteran and an up and coming prospect. Jacare has a rep for having excellent BJJ and Holland was subbed in his last loss. On top of that Holland is known for having questionable fight IQ. We were able to get a ridiculous line on Jacare by sub and feel that’s his most likely path to victory here.

Ciryl Gane over Junior Dos Santos by decision +300 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/10/20.

Ciryl Gane is one win away from being a contender in the heavyweight division. JDS on the other hand is coming off 3 straight stoppage losses. Gane has power but doesn’t go all out trying to KO his opponents. He uses a more technical, calculated approach to his fights. We’re banking on Gane not being able to finish the vastly more experienced JDS and cruising to a decision victory.

Deiveson Figueiredo over Brandon Moreno by submission +400 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.

We don’t normally have bets on both fighters in the same fight. However the odds justify taking the risk since we’ll be very profitable if one hits. We like Brandon Moreno to spring the upset over Figueiredo. However we feel if he loses there’s a good chance it’ll be by sub as Figueiredo has subbed 3 of his last 4 opponents. Plus we were able to get that line at odds significantly better than the current market.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: UFC

The post Capper’s Delight – (12/12/20) UFC 256: Figueiredo vs Moreno appeared first on MMAInformed.

Capper’s Delight – (7/17/20) UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2

admin — Sat, 18 Jul 2020 16:00:44 +0000

We technically had a winning night of betting for UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Ige. Our bets ended up going 1-1 on the night for a total profit of 0.02 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +21.37 units with an overall ROI of 15%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 33%.

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Ige (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

Alexander Volkanovski & Calvin Kattar parlay (+5.02 units)

We came into this card alive on our 5 unit parlay when Volkanovski won a controversial split decision against Max Holloway last Saturday. Kattar brought the parlay home by winning a unanimous decision against Dan Ige. The fight played out how we thought it would with Kattar being the much better striker. When Ige couldn’t get the fight to the ground he had no choice but to take damage on the feet.

Losing Bets

Molly McCann (-5 units)

We learned a hard lesson when McCann was dominated in this fight and lost by unanimous decision. That lesson is to never max bet a low level women’s MMA fight again. I jumped on this line shortly after it came out thinking the line would go up. Initially it went down then slowly went back up. By the time the fight started my instincts were correct and the line had shot up by over 50 cents.

I completely dismissed Santos as a fighter because of her questionable completion in Brazil and because she lost to Mara Romero Borella. McCann was supposed to be the more experienced, active, fighter but that wasn’t the case. Santos put it on her for the whole fight and looked vastly improved. Live and learn.

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2 (PLAYS)

Marc Diakiese over Rafael Fiziev (3 units -160)
Bet was placed on 7/16/20.

Marc Diakiese is a UFC veteran who’s starting to come into his own as a fighter. He has a 5-3 record in the UFC with those 3 losses coming against stiff competition. He appeared to be in danger of being cut but has since rattled off 2 wins in a row. Diakiese is a creative striker who has an improving ground game.

Rafael Fiziev has only been an MMA fighter for 5 years. He has a strong striking base being a striking coach at Tiger Muay Thai. But this is MMA and not Muay Thai rules. I believe Diakiese can strike with him and he’s well rounded enough to exploit weaknesses in Fiziev’s game. This is a big step up in competition for Fiziev and I don’t believe he’s ready for this level of competition at this time.

Brett Johns over Montel Jackson (1 unit +180) Bet was placed on 7/17/20.

Brett Johns started off his career with a perfect 14-0 record. Then the UFC gave him Aljamain Sterling and Pedro Munoz in his next 2 fights and understandably he lost both fights. He has since beaten Tony Gravely to get back on the winning track. Johns is a tough, opportunistic fighter who’s fought the much better competition. He shouldn’t be this big of an underdog against Jackson.

Montel Jackson is being looked at as a blue chip prospect in the bantamweight division. He has freakish size, reach, and hand size for the bantamweight division. He has flaws in his game on the ground and Johns may be able to exploit them. Being that tall and long may work against him with a creative grappler like Johns. The line is too wide and I’ll take a chance on Johns at dog odds of nearly 2-1.

Joel Alvarez over Joe Duffy (1 unit +285)
Bet was placed on 7/17/20

Joel Alvarez is a submission specialist fighting out of Spain. He’s 1-1 in his UFC career and is coming off a win. His striking is limited and prefers to get the fight to the ground. At this point it’s unknown just how good Alvarez can be in the UFC. This bet is more about fading Duffy than anything else.

Joe Duffy is still living off of the glory of holding a victory over Conor McGregor nearly 10 years ago. He has several red flags coming into this fight. There’s been rumblings recently of him wanting to retire. He’s only had 2 fights over the last 3 years. All of his UFC wins are against fighters who are no longer in the UFC. He shouldn’t be this big of a favorite over anybody at this point of his career. Getting nearly 3-1 against a fighter who’s thinking of calling it a career is worth the risk.

Askar Askarov over Alejandre Pantoja (1 unit +170) Bet was placed on 7/17/20.

Askar Askarov is making his 3rd appearance in the UFC. He’s an elite grappler who also carries probably the 2nd most power in the division. The only blemish on his record is a draw against the surging Brandon Moreno. He’s not getting enough credit for his skill set and +170 is a nice price for this future title contender.

Alejandre Pantoja is a top 5 flyweight and is more proven against UFC competition. He lost convincingly however 2 fights ago to title challenger Deiveson Figueiredo. A little over 2 years ago he also lost a unanimous decision to Dustin Ortiz. Askarov is a better version of Ortiz and will be able to compete wherever the fight goes against Pantoja.

Deiveson Figueiredo over Joseph Benavidez (5 units -215 *MAX BET*) Bet was placed on 7/17/20.

I’m going to keep this pretty brief. Deiveson Figueiredo is too strong for Joseph Benavidez. We already seen this fight play out less than 5 months ago when Figueiredo finished Benavidez in round 2. You can see the difference in power between the 2 fighters. He was going to finish Benavidez with or without the accidental headbutt. It’s only a matter of time before he catches and finishes Benavidez again.

Luana Carolina over Ariane Lipski (1 unit +100) Bet was placed on 7/17/20.

Ariane Lipski came to the UFC with a lot of hype being the KSW Women’s Flyweight Champion. They gave her Joanne Calderwood in her UFC debut and she was outclassed. Next they gave her Molly McCann and McCann was too much for her as well. They finally gave her a newcomer in Isabela De Padua and Lipski was able to notch her 1st UFC win.

Now she’s facing Luana Carolina who’s 1-0 in the UFC. Even though she’s raw and relatively unknown, Carolina is a talented striker. She’s tough and put out a lot of volume in her UFC debut win. Ariane Lipski has shown to be an average at best fighter in her 3 UFC fights. Carolina isn’t a world beater herself but won’t have to be to get the victory over Lipski at dog odds.

Kelvin Gastelum over Jack Hermansson (3 units +100) Bet was placed on 7/18/20.

Kelvin Gastelum is only 28 years old and has already been in several high profile fights in his UFC career. He was so close to becoming the middleweight champion just a little over a year ago. He’s well rounded and packs the power to end a fight at a moments notice. Gastelum has a big heart and is difficult to finish.

Jack Hermansson is a nice fighter but isn’t on the same level as Gastelum. He doesn’t have the same kind of heart that Gastelum possesses and has checked out a couple of times when the going got tough. The wrong fighter is favored here and I’m happy getting my money on Gastelum at dog odds.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: UFC

The post Capper’s Delight – (7/17/20) UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2 appeared first on MMAInformed.