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Capper’s Delight – (6/12/21) UFC 263: Adesanya vs Vettori

admin — Sat, 12 Jun 2021 19:12:13 +0000

We got back on the winning track last week. Our bets ended up going 2-2 for a total win of 1.25 units. Year to date we are down 25.11 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Sakai (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

Ilir Latifi by decision (1.75 units)

This fight played out how we thought with Latifi implementing a wrestle heavy game plan. There wasn’t much action but Latifi controlled Boser enough to get the decision in the minds of the judges.

Jair Rozenstruik by KO (1.50 units)

Rozenstruik’s only win condition came to fruition when he got the KO at the end of round 1. He has that “death touch” and is always a threat to end a fight when he lets his hands go.

Losing Bets

Gregory Rodrigues ITD (-1 unit)

This fight appeared to be destined to end inside the distance one way or another. What actually happened was Rodrigues fought smart and landed the more meaningful punches and earned the decision victory.

Walt Harris by KO (-1 unit)

If fights were only 1 minute long Walt Harris would be a world champion. But they’re not and he’s just a fighter who starts fast and fades even faster. Harris is super athletic but his lack of a ground game, take down defense, and cardio limits him greatly.

UFC 263: Adesanya vs Vettori (PLAYS)

Hakeem Dawodu over Movsar Evloev +190 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

This is an exciting matchup between two up and coming prospects in the featherweight division. One has a striking base, the other has a grappling base. We’re going with the striker in this spot.

Hakeem Dawodu is fast and hits hard. He also has good takedown defense and that will be put to the test. Evloev is undefeated but has had to overcome adversity in his last 2 fights. The feeling here is that Dawodu will be able to out-strike Evloev and that will most likely lead him to a decision victory.

Terrance McKinney over Matt Frevola ITD +300 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

Terrance McKinney is making UFC debut on short notice. He’s an explosive fighter who’s never been to a decision in his career. Matt Frevola is well rounded and has much more UFC experience. He has been hurt in multiple fights however which opens the door for McKinney’s fighting style. If McKinney is able to win it’ll most likely be inside the distance.

Carlos Felipe over Jake Collier by decision +150 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

Carlos Felipe is the better fighter with the better cardio. What he hasn’t shown in his UFC career thus far is fight ending power. If that holds true here again then it’s reasonable to believe he will outpoint Collier to a decision victory.

Steven Peterson over Chase Hooper by decision +240 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

This is a matchup between a grizzled veteran and someone who probably shouldn’t be in the UFC at this time. Chase Hooper has 2 victories in the UFC but those were over opponents who also aren’t UFC level. He’s a one dimensional fighter who severely lacks a striking game.

To be fair Steven Peterson hasn’t been impressive in the UFC. But it’s all about the matchup and his high output striking style should fare well against Hooper. When you couple Peterson’s lack of power and Hooper’s toughness then a Peterson decision victory seems probable.

Leon Edwards over Nate Diaz ITD +125 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 6/11/12.

Nate Diaz is a UFC legend and fan favorite. But in 2021 he’s simply overmatched against Leon Edwards. Diaz is ultra tough and is known to be able to take a ton of damage. And that’s exactly what we expect to happen in this matchup.

Leon Edwards is on the cusp of a much deserved title shot. He’s on a 9 fight unbeaten streak and most haven’t been close. He should be able to pick apart Diaz from the outside. If the fight hits the ground he should also be able to land damage from on top. The feeling here is Diaz will take a ton of damage causing the fight to be stopped at some point later in the fight.

Deiveson Figueiredo over Brandon Moreno ITD +130 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

This is a rematch of probably the best fight in UFC Flyweight history. While that fight ended in a draw, we feel this fight will go differently like most rematches do. Brandon Moreno was able to take all of Figueiredo’s shots while landing many of his own in the 1st fight. Figueiredo entered that fight sick and was actually close to pulling out of it.

He enters this fight healthy off a full training camp. While he did struggle to make weight this time around, he’ll be entering this fight in better shape than the 1st fight. We feel he’ll be stronger and his punches will cause a bit more damage this time around. Moreno is game but his body will only be able to take so much damage from a healthy Figueiredo this time.

Carlos Felipe / Steven Peterson / Belal Muhammad / Deiveson Figueiredo / Israel Adesanya / Jamahal Hill ITD parlay +1333 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 6/11/21.

Some fights have already been addressed from previous bets so we’ll only breakdown the remaining fights. Belal Muhammad is the better fighter at this point and if he’s able to avoid the ground he will win. Israel Adesanya is coming off his 1st career loss at light heavyweight. Now that he’s back at middleweight we expect him to continue to dominate the division. While Vettori has improved greatly since their 1st fight it seems unlikely he’ll be the one to dethrone Adesanya at middleweight. Jamahal Hill is a dangerous pure striker and Paul Craig has been finished several times in the past. This is a striking mismatch and it should be a matter of time before Hill finishes him.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: Needing Art? @needingartwork

The post Capper’s Delight – (6/12/21) UFC 263: Adesanya vs Vettori appeared first on MMAInformed.

Capper’s Delight – (12/5/20) UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Vettori

admin — Sat, 05 Dec 2020 16:29:41 +0000

We finally had a winning night of bets for last weeks card. Our bets ended up going 3-3 on the night for a total win of 2.69 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +5.57 units with an overall ROI of 2%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 5%.

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs Clark (RESULTS)

Winning Bets

Anthony Smith & Devin Clark fight doesn’t go the distance (+4.24 units)

We hit our max bet here when the fight ended in the 1st round after Smith was able to submit Clark. The reason we max bet it was because of the generous -118 line we were able to get at our local sports book. Our max bets are now 8-3 all time.

Miguel Baeza ITD (+0.65 units)

Miguel Baeza proved to be too much for Takashi Sato. His striking was on point and it ultimately led to Baeza getting his 1st submission victory. We mentioned that he had a BBJ black belt in his back pocket last week and he was finally able to put it to good use.

Su Mudaerji ITD (+0.80 units)

This fight ended in less than a minute when Gordon could no longer withstand Mudaerji’s power on the feet. Mudaerji won like a big favorite should. Fortunately we were able to get generous odds of +160 by TKO / KO which we felt was the most likely way Mudaerji would win.

Losing bets

Ashlee Evans-Smith & ITD (-2.5 units)

We completely misread this fight just like we did with Ariane Lipski 2 weeks ago. There was too much focus put on the experience edge Evan-Smith had and not enough on her actual skills. Norma Dumont was able to completely outclass her everywhere and get an easy unanimous decision victory.

Spike Carlyle ITD (-0.5 units)

We took a chance thinking Carlyle would be the bigger, stronger, fighter and that could lead to a finish victory. Unfortunately Carlyle’s lack of cardio issues came up again which played a role in him losing a decision to Bill Algeo. Carlyle is a fun, exciting, fighter who needs to address his cardio issues before the UFC cuts him.

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Vettori (PLAYS)

Jack Hermansson over Marvin Vettori +120 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.

The winner of this fight is going to propel to being a legit title contender in the middleweight division. We’re taking the more battle tested Jack Hermansson. He’s fought the overall better competition and has the better wins between the two fighters.

Marvin Vettori is a good fighter and is riding a 3 fight winning streak. He doesn’t however fit the profile of the type of fighter that gives Hermansson trouble – powerful strikers. If he’s unable to hurt Hermansson and if the fight gets extended, we see Hermansson having more output and getting the victory.

Louis Smolka & Jose Quiñonez fight doesn’t go the distance +120 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.

The handicapping angle here is pretty simple. Louis Smolka’s last 7 fights have ended inside the distance. His fighting style is the main reason for this. Smolka is very aggressive and reckless at times so he’s either going to hurt his opponents or get hurt by them. The feeling here is Quiñonez will be a willing dance partner and contribute to the chaos meaning the fight should end before the final horn.

Ilia Topuria, Taila Santos, & Jamahal Hill parlay +196 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.

Ilia Topuria is an undefeated prospect who looks to grapple. He also has low key good striking and should be able to do enough to beat the veteran Jackson. Taila Santos had a breakout performance against Molly McCann. Santos is a good striker and De La Rosa tends to get hit too much. Jamahal Hill is also an up and coming undefeated prospect. He’s an excellent, high output striker who should outpoint or even finish OSP.

Nate Landwehr over Movsar Evloev +480 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.

The main reasoning behind this bet is that the line is ridiculously wide in our opinion. Movsar Evloev is an exciting, undefeated prospect who deserves to be favored here. However he hasn’t been dominant in his UFC fights to justify this type of line.

Nate Landwehr is 1-1 in the UFC and is coming of a win over UFC veteran Darren Elkins. He is an aggressive fighter with good takedown and submission defense. If Evloev has a hard time taking Landwehr down and the fight plays out mostly on the feet, he can pull off the huge upset here.

Matt Wiman over Jordan Leavitt +320 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.

Here’s another fight where the odds seem ridiculously wide. Matt Wiman is the much older fighter nearing the tail end of his career. But he has 2 things going for him in this matchup. He’s the much more experienced fighter and he’s never been submitted.

Jordan Leavitt is 7-0 and relies on his submission skills. He’s making his UFC debut and his striking is a mystery. There are too many unknowns with him to justify this big of a line so we’ll take a stab with the UFC veteran Wiman here.

Taila Santos ITD over Montana De La Rosa +375 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.

As we said earlier Santos is coming off of a breakout performance in her last fight. She’s the much better striker here and is no slouch on the ground. De La Rosa frequently gets beat up on the feet and we see the same happening here. While a one shot KO is unlikely, we feel there’s a chance Santos could inflict enough striking damage throughout the fight to warrant a stoppage.

Jamahal Hill ITD over Ovince St.Preux +150 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.

Jamahal Hill is yet another exciting undefeated prospect on this card. He has a nice striking skill set and is a high volume fighter in the light heavyweight division. The feeling here is that he’s going to be too athletic and active for OSP to handle.

OSP has been known to derail some prospects in the past but Hill’s volume and athleticism makes him different. The last 8-0 athletic prospect OSP faced was Dominick Reyes. We feel Hill will ultimately land something that hurts OSP and proceeds to finish him.

Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed

Image Credit: Needing Art? @needingartwork

The post Capper’s Delight – (12/5/20) UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Vettori appeared first on MMAInformed.