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Welcome to the inaugural installment of Capper’s Delight! This weekly article will be dedicated strictly to betting on MMA. We will recap our betting results from the previous weeks card and post our bets for the upcoming card. The MMAInformed.com Sportsbook of choice is 5dimes.eu. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +29.93 units with an overall ROI of 26%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 70%. I’d like to thank and acknowledge Fightodds.io for being the live odds provider for MMAInformed.com. Also thank you to @needingartwork for creating the best UFC fight posters.
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Volkov (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Lauren Murphy (+2.1 units)
We bet 2 units on Murphy at +105 over Roxanne Modafferi. Going into the fight I felt Murphy was going to be the bigger, stronger, fighter with the better striking. That turned out to be the case and when Modafferi was unable to get the fight to the ground her path to victory never came to fruition.
Belal Muhammad (+2.14 units)
We bet 3 units on Muhammad at -140 over Lyman Good. Going into the fight I felt Muhammad was the better all around fighter with better durability and a higher fight IQ. Good had shown heart questions in the past against Zaleski Dos Santos by telling his corner he was scared to get knocked out in between rounds. Good’s best path to victory was a KO and while he did knock down Muhammad, he couldn’t finish him.
Losing Bets
Cortney Casey (-1 unit)
We bet 1 unit on Casey at +105 over Gillian Robertson. Going into the fight I felt Casey would be the better striker and would be able to hold her own on the ground. Unfortunately every time Robertson took her down she kept her down and Casey was unable to improve her position. This happened several times before Robertson ultimately submitted her.
Roosevelt Roberts & Curtis Blaydes Parlay (-3 units)
We bet 3 units on this 2 leg parlay at -124. Blaydes did what I’d thought he’d do and outwrestle Volkov possibly even getting the stoppage. Unfortunately Roberts didn’t perform up to expectations. I felt he would be the younger, faster, fighter and use his size and athletic advantage to lead him to victory. Miller was able to get the fight to the ground early and implement his superior Brazilian Ju-Jitsu game. Roberts was unable to escape and got submitted.
5 leg parlay of all bets (-0.5 units) This was a 5 leg parlay that consisted of Murphy, Casey, Roberts, Muhammad, and Blaydes. We’ve been running good lately and took a stab on a parlay that would’ve paid over +2700 had it won. Unfortunately this long shot parlay lost when Casey lost.
After all was said and done we ended up only losing 0.26 units on the night. Not the result we were looking for but also not a disaster. UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Volkov was a tricky card to handicap with plenty of dogs coming through.
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs Hooker (PLAYS)
Dustin Poirier over Dan Hooker (5 units -185 *MAX BET*) Bet was placed on 6/14/20.
As Corey Anderson said after beating Johnny Walker, “There’s levels to this!” Poirier is an elite level fighter and Hooker simply isn’t on the same level. Poirier is a former interim champion with victories over fighters like Justin Gaethje, Max Holloway, and Eddie Alvarez. Hooker’s quality of wins don’t even come close. Poirier is better than Hooker anywhere the fight goes. The only way I can see Hooker winning is if he were to catch Poirier and finish him. While that is a possibility, I consider it unlikely to happen. Hooker is a real good fighter who’s just a cut below the very best in the lightweight division.
Jordan Griffin over Youssef Zalal (3 units -105) Bet was placed on 6/23/20.
Griffin is the better fighter in my opinion and the getting him at dog odds is good value. He holds a few advantages over Zalal in this fight. He’s the more well rounded fighter and has 2 1/2 times more MMA experience. He’s been competitive with established UFC talent such as Dan Ige. Zalal on the other hand was losing to fighters like Chepe Mariscal and Matt Jones in LFA just last year. Zalal was impressive in his UFC debut beating Austin Lingo as an underdog. Lingo was slow and plodding in that fight and didn’t have an answer for Zalal after getting taken down multiple times. Griffin however is much more athletic than Lingo and will pose more of a threat to Zalal on the feet with his speed and much more of a threat if the fight hits the ground.
Brendan Allen over Kyle Daukaus ITD (1 unit -105) Bet was placed on 6/23/20.
Once again there’s levels to MMA and Allen is on another level compared to Daukaus. He already holds submission victories over Kevin Holland and Tom Breese in his 1st two UFC fights. Both of those fighters would beat Daukaus as big favorites too. Daukaus is making his UFC debut with an impressive 9-0 record. He has 8 submissions in his 9 fights with 5 of them coming by way of D’arce choke. The problem is he’s unproven against this level of competition. Also he’s a submission specialist who’s fighting a better grappler in Allen. While Daukaus has improved greatly since turning pro, he still was finished in 5 of 10 amateur fights. I expect Allen to drag him to the ground at some point and submit him.
Luis Peña over Khama Worthy (3 units -220) Bet was placed on 6/26/20.
Luis Peña came out of TUF season 27 with a lot of hype behind him. He’s had a slow start to his UFC however, going 3-2 in his first 5 fights. His losses were both close split decision losses. Khama Worthy on the other hand is riding a 6 fight win streak. He’s coming off of one of the biggest upsets in UFC history when he stopped Devonte Smith in round 1 back in August 2019. Even with his recent successes I don’t think very highly of the 33 year old Worthy. His KO of Smith was more of a fluke than his game evolving. Peña is going to pose matchup problems for him with his size and pressure. If Worthy doesn’t finish him early Peña will grind him out to a decision victory or a possible finish. Worthy has been finished in all 6 of his losses. Plus the fact that I was able to snag Peña at -220 was just too good to pass up.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
