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We had another rough night of betting for UFC 251. Our bets ended up going 1-4 on the night for a total loss of 4.29 units. Fortunately we’re still alive on our 5 unit max bet parlay with Kattar for this week. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +21.35 units with an overall ROI of 16%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 42%.
UFC 251: Masvidal vs Usman (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Rose Namajunas (+1.7 units)
Our only winning play on the night was hitting our 3 unit bet on “Thug” Rose. The fight played out how I thought it would with Rose winning the striking battle with her superior boxing and footwork. Andrade was harder to hit this time around because she implemented a lot of head movement to her game plan. She was starting to get to Rose in the 3rd round with her constant pressure but couldn’t finish her. By the time the fight ended Rose had already banked the first 2 rounds to give her the victory.
Losing Bets
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-1 unit)
As a general rule I have reservations about betting on fighters making their UFC debut. I took a chance on Zhumagulov because of his previous success against UFC fighters. I felt the fight was going to be close and the +165 odds we got were worth the risk. My read was correct because the fight ended up being very close. Even though Zhumagulov threw more punches, landed more punches, and got 2 takedowns, he ended up losing a close split decision.
Maxim Grishin (-1 unit)
This turned out to be a horrible bet and one I regret making. Once again I bet on a fighter making his UFC debut. But unlike my bet on Zhumagulov who was an underdog, I bet Grishin as a favorite. The line ended up flipping so there was no value betting on Grishin. Plus I should’ve paid more attention to the fact that he was moving up in weight while taking the fight on short notice. Even though I felt Tybura was on the decline, he used his size (and Grishin’s lack of size) to wear him out and ultimately win an easy decision.
Volkan Oezdemir (-3 units)
A bad night got worse quick when Jiri Prochazka highlight reel KO’d Oezdemir in the 2nd round. I was so convinced that Volkan’s UFC experience and results against elite competition would be enough to get him a win over Prochazka. I neglected to give Jiri enough credit for his skill set and the streak he’d been on prior to making his UFC debut. His unorthodox style and movement caused problems for Oezdemir. You could see there was a big speed advantage for Prochazka. Once he landed that head kick on Volkan it was only a matter of seconds before he put him to sleep. Prochazka looks like a legit threat in the light heavyweight division.
Jose Aldo (-1 unit)
I bet on Aldo because of his experience and because we were getting over 2-1 on him. I also questioned Yan’s quality of opposition going into his 1st title fight. Now I can confidently say that Yan is legit and has that signature win he was lacking prior to this fight. Aldo was competitive for the first 3 rounds but like many predicted he would slow down as the fight went later. He could no longer deal with Yan’s nonstop aggression and ultimately got stopped in the last round after taking an extraordinary amount of unnecessary damage.
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Ige (PLAYS)
Molly McCann over Taila Santos (5 unit -130 *MAX BET*) Bet was placed on 6/18/20.
I jumped on this line early thinking money would come pouring in on McCann and sadly that wasn’t the case. She actually became the underdog at one point but has now worked her way back up to a -120 favorite as of this article. A max bet on a fighter of Molly McCann’s ability is very risky and may blow up in my face. I did it however for several reasons.
McCann is a proven UFC fighter with a record of 3-1 in the promotion. She brings an aggressive, high output style to this fight. She’s landed over 100 significant strikes in all 3 of her UFC victories. Santos on the other hand has a nice record of 15-1 overall but 0-1 in the UFC. She lost a split decision to Mara Romero Borella in her UFC debut. Borella is a bad fighter who’s on the verge of being cut from the UFC. Santos’ 15 wins have mostly come against questionable competition on the Brazilian regional scene. She has good technical striking but that’s about it. McCann should out volume her to a decision victory.
Alexander Volkanovski over Max Holloway & Calvin Kattar over Dan Ige parlay (5 units +100 *MAX BET*) Bet was placed on 7/9/20.
Volkanovski did his part by winning a controversial split decision over Holloway on Saturday night. Now it’s up to Kattar to due his part and bring this 5 unit max bet parlay home. As I said before Calvin Kattar is on the verge of becoming a star in the featherweight division. He easily has the best boxing skills in the division and possibly in all of the UFC.
Dan Ige is no slouch himself but this is a bad matchup for him. Ige likes to press forward and bang but that’s not going to work for him in this matchup. Kattar is the better striker and will make Ige pay on the feet. Ige’s last loss was against Julio Arce who outboxed him and Kattar is much better than Arce. Ige is the better grappler but will have a hard time taking Kattar down. If he can’t get the fight to the ground he’s going to pieced up and possibly finished.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
