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All good things must come to an end. We had a horrible night of bets last week ending our two card winning streak. Our bets ended up going 1-8-1 on the night for a total loss of 4.65 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +2.46 units with an overall ROI of 1%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 3%.
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs Moreno (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Chase Hooper by submission (+1.35 units)
Sadly this was the only ticket we cashed last week and we needed a miracle finish to do so. Hooper continued to be a liability on the feet losing the first 2 rounds convincingly. Luckily for us he was able pull off a heel hook submission in round 3 to get us the win.
Losing bets
Billy Quarantillo by decision (-1 unit)
Our read was off here as we felt Quarantillo would be the more active fighter and get the decision victory. As it turns out the exact opposite occurred with Tucker doing everything we felt Quarantillo would be able to do.
Billy Quarantillo, Daniel Pineda, Rafael Fiziev, & Tony Ferguson parlay (-1 unit)
This parlay was doomed from the beginning when Quarantillo lost by decision. Then Pineda proceeded to get knocked out by Cub Swanson. The only win came with Fiziev getting the KO finish over Moicano. Finally Oliveira was ultra impressive in getting a dominating decision victory over Ferguson.
Virna Jandiroba (-1 unit)
This was a close fight that really could’ve gone either way. Dern landed the more meaningful strikes however and was given the unanimous decision victory.
Ciryl Gane by decision (-0.5 units)
This bet looked like it had a chance to cash after Gane took round 1. However things can change quickly with heavyweights and Gane hurt then finished Dos Santos in round 2.
Jacare Souza by submission (-1 unit)
Souza was able to get the fight to the ground early giving us a glimmer of hope. Holland quickly changed that however stunning Souza from his knees then he proceeded to finish Souza by TKO shortly after.
Deiveson Figueiredo by submission (-0.5 units)
This fight of the year candidate went the full 5 rounds. Figueiredo never had a chance to submit Moreno throughout the duration of the fight.
Brandon Moreno by decision (-0.5 units)
This bet nearly cashed and would’ve given us a 3rd straight winning week. The reality however is the fight was rightfully scored a draw and we just missed on this over 6-1 long shot bet.
Brandon Moreno over Deiveson Figueiredo (PUSH)
We were able to get a push on our straight bet on Moreno when the fight ended in a draw. Our read was correct that Moreno would be live against Figueiredo as a sizable underdog.
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs Neal (PLAYS)
Taila Santos over Gillian Robertson -109 (2 units) & ITD +325 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 12/17/20.
Gillian Robertson is the more established fighter against UFC competition. She’ll look to get the fight to the ground where grappling is her bread and butter. On the feet however she’s a liability with limited although improving striking. If she’s unable to get the fight to the ground she’s going to be in trouble against a fighter of Taila Santos’ caliber.
Taila Santos had a dominating performance against Molly McCann in her last fight. She’s a Muay Thai fighter by nature but also has sneaky good BJJ. We see this fight playing out mostly on the feet where Santos will have the clear advantage. Robertson doesn’t do well against strong fighters with good striking and has quit before when she can’t implement her game plan. Santos should be able to win this fight and even has a chance to get the finish if her striking proves to be too much for Robertson to handle.
Rob Font over Marlon Moraes +125 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/17/20.
At one point not that long ago Marlon Moraes was on the verge of being a superstar in the bantamweight division. He was on a 4 fight winning streak with 3 impressive finishes. But since he lost his title shot against Henry Cejudo he appears to be a different fighter. He’s lost 2 of his last 3 fights and the fight he won against Jose Aldo was highly questionable.
Rob Font is fighting for the first time in a little over a year. He’s a good overall fighter with excellent boxing skills. Font tends to dominate good fighters and lose to the elite ones. It’s hard to say where Marlon Moraes rates at the moment given his last 3 fights. The later the fight goes the better it should be for Font. We’re taking a shot on Font here betting that he can keep the fight standing and out volume Moraes to a victory.
Jimmy Flick over Cody Durden by submission +130 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/17/20.
This fight was to have taken place 2 weeks ago but was postponed after Durden got pinkeye. He was coming down from bantamweight which means he’s had 2 weight cuts from a higher division in the last 2 weeks. Durden has a wrestling base and will be the better striker here. His best path to victory is to keep the fight standing which in turn keeps him safe from Flick’s dangerous submission game.
Jimmy Flick will look to get this fight to the ground at all costs to implement that submission game. He’s got excellent chain wrestling / submissions and is dangerous on the ground at all times. The feeling here is the fight will ultimately hit the ground which is Flick’s wheelhouse. He’s so good on the ground that we expect him to lock up a submission victory at some point in the fight.
Antonio Arroyo over Deron Winn ITD +130 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/17/20.
Deron Winn came to the UFC undefeated with a 5-0 record. Since being in the UFC he’s gone 1-2 against average competition. He’s basically fighting at the wrong weight class because he either can’t or chooses to not fight at welterweight. In doing so he’s always fighting against naturally bigger opponents and tends to tire faster because of it.
Antonio Arroyo is a huge middleweight who wouldn’t be very undersized at light heavyweight. He’s got excellent kicks and good striking. We feel he’s ultimately going to be too big for Winn to handle and will wear him down over the course of the fight. Winn tends to gas later in fights and we see that happening here giving us a shot at hitting our Arroyo inside the distance bet.
Greg Hardy over Marcin Tybura by KO / TKO +150 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/17/20.
Not that long ago Marcin Tybura had lost 3 of 4 fights and was looking like he might get cut form the UFC. Since then he’s fought better winning 3 in a row by decision. He’s not a heavy puncher and has good grappling for being a heavyweight. His best path to victory will be to control Hardy on the ground thus avoiding his power.
Greg Hardy is 4-2 in the UFC with his losses coming by DQ and to a top 5 heavyweight in Alexander Volkov. His power is his strength and will look to keep this fight standing at all costs. Hardy is fast and is a very athletic heavyweight. The feeling here is he’ll be too athletic for Tybura to handle. He should be able to hurt him at some point and finish him for the biggest win of his UFC career to date.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
