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Unfortunately the losing streak continues. Our bets ended up going 0-4-1 last week for a total loss of 3 units. Year to date we are down 6.13 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Gane (RESULTS)
Draw
Mayra Bueno Silva
We had a 5 unit bet on Silva and the fight ended up being scored a draw. Our read was correct however as Silva was the much stronger fighter and inflicted some serious damage to De La Rosa. But the reality is Silva still needs to sure up her take down defense. While it was improved she still gave up multiple take downs allowing De La Rosa to accumulate control time and stay in the fight.
Losing Bets
Jimmie Rivera (-1 unit)
We felt going into the fight that Rivera would be the cleaner striker and that Munhoz would be easy to hit. While that might’ve been true we forgot to account for Munhoz’s leg kicks. Those turned out to be the story of the fight. Munhoz landed many damaging leg kicks which compromised Rivera’s movement and game plan.
Alex Caceres vs Kevin Croom FDGTD (-1 unit)
This felt like a bad beat of sorts. Caceres had Croom locked up deep in a triangle choke then inexplicably let him free. Then Croom was completely gassed later in the fight and Caceres found a way not to finish him. At the end of the day however the fight went the distance and the bet was a losing one.
Ronnie Lawrence by decision (-0.5 units)
Lawrence was much the better fighter here as he had a breakout performance. He’s not much of a power striker or submission fighter but he fights nonstop. Ultimately it was the volume that got the job done as he was able to stop Cachero in the final round.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO (-0.5 units)
We felt if Rozenstruik was going to win it would most likely be by KO. Unfortunately for us he never let his hands go to give himself a chance at getting a KO. He just stood there waiting as Gane would occasionally pick him apart from the outside. The fight ended up going the distance which was a surprise to many.
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya (PLAYS)
Israel Adesanya over Jan Blachowicz -245 (5 units) ***MAX BET*** Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
This is a matchup of speed vs power. Blachowicz being the naturally bigger fighter will possess more power. Adesanya moving up in weight will be the faster fighter. We’re going with speed to beat power in this matchup.
Israel Adesanya is a technician who should be hard to hit in this spot. We feel that Blachowicz won’t be able find him and at the same time Adesanya will pick him apart along the way. Jan is an all time great underdog fighter but this appears to be a bad stylistic matchup for him. Izzy is a superstar and we expect him to become the latest champ champ when all is said and done.
Sean Brady over Jake Matthews -200 (5 units) ***MAX BET*** Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
The UFC appears to be high on Sean Brady. So much so that they had him matched up against Belal Muhammad in a fight that fell through just 3 months ago. We feel that Brady is better everywhere the fight goes. On top of that he’s got heart for days while Matthews tends to back down when the going gets tough. The edge in experience doesn’t appear to be enough for Matthews to win so we see Brady winning basically however he wants.
Mario Bautista over Trevin Jones -215 (5 units) ***MAX BET*** Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
Mario Bautista is a prospect on the rise. He was thrown to the wolves in his UFC debut against Cory Sandhagen. Since then however he’s gone 2-0 and has been impressive. Jones was getting picked apart in his UFC debut by Timur Valiev. Then Jones turned it around and got the surprise stoppage but that victory has since been declared a no contest. We see Bautista being able to out volume and outclass Jones in this spot.
Tim Elliott over Jordan Espinosa -110 (2 units) Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
This is a fight between 2 fighters who are both 1-3 in their last 4 fights. Espinosa has been losing to some good fighters while Elliott’s been losing to great fighters. Both are susceptible to getting submitted at any point. We’re going with the more experienced and higher output fighter to get the victory here.
Aljamain Sterling over Petr Yan +105 (2 units) Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
This is a tough fight to call. Yan is the champ and has been impressive throughout his UFC career. Sterling has been impressive as well especially in his recent fights. When we look at who has the better wins it has to be Sterling. We expect Sterling to cause Yan problems with his unorthodox movement. Sterling would also appear to have a big advantage if the fight hits the ground. We’re going with Sterling to be the new champ as he appears to be on a mission for gold.
Aalon Cruz over Uros Medic +145 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
Uros Medic is getting all the hype in this spot. He’s undefeated and has been impressive in his career. The problem is he’s untested at this level. Cruz on the other hand has fought the tougher competition and holds a victory over Steve Garcia who’s currently in the UFC. We feel it’s too early to count out Cruz especially against an unproven, debuting fighter so we’re taking him as a dog here.
Rogerio Bontorin over Kai Kara-France +110 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
Kai Kara-France is part of one of the hottest teams in mma – City Kickboxing. For that reason he’s normally overpriced in his fights and we feel that’s the case here. Bontorin is a talented fighter and probably should be the favorite here. He has more impressive wins in the UFC in only half the amount of fights of Kara-France. Bontorin is dangerous everywhere and is a finisher if given the opportunity.
Kyler Phillips over Yadong Song +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
Yadong Song has been impressive in the UFC and holds some eye opening victories. His win over Vera was close and his draw against Stamann was highly questionable however. Phillips has been impressive lately too albeit against lesser competition. His ceiling is unknown but he has the look of a future contender at bantamweight. We’re taking a shot that his speed and unorthodox movements will puzzle Song and help him get the win.
Thiago Santos over Aleksandar Rakic +150 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
We feel this line is off and that Santos should be favored here based on his body of work. He had a close fight against Jon Jones and holds a KO victory over the current champ Jan Blachowicz. Rakic’s best win on the other hand a decision over Anthony Smith. On top of that Rakic has been rocked a few times and Santos isn’t a fighter you want going for the kill. We’re taking the proven commodity here at dog odds and fading the hype.
Israel Adesanya, Islam Makhachev, Sean Brady, Mario Bautista parlay +290 (2 units) Bet was placed on 3/6/21.
We already have 5 unit max bet plays on Adesanya, Brady, and Bautista. Now we’re adding Makhachev and parlaying them all together in the hopes of cashing nearly 3-1 odds. Drew Dober appears to be KO or bust against Makhachev and we feel the KO is unlikely. We expect Islam to severely out grapple him which could also lead to a submission victory.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
