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We’re coming off another winning week for last weeks fight card. Our bets ended up going 2-2 for a total profit of 1.05 units. Year to date we are down 17.62 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Gastelum (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Parker Porter (1.55 units)
Our suspicions about Chase Sherman being favored over anyone in the UFC were correct. He flopped as a nearly 2-1 favorite after starting off fast. Porter was able to out volume and out cardio Sherman who was visibly gassed at the end of the fight.
Jared Cannonier by decision (2.50 units)
This fight played out pretty much how we thought it would. We felt Gastelum would be durable and be able to go the distance while getting outpointed and that’s what happened. Neither fighter was in danger of getting finished during the fight.
Losing Bets
Brandon Royval (-1 unit)
We took a chance on the reckless but exciting Royval and it didn’t pan out. He brought his hyper aggressive style to the fight and had some success. However Pantoja is an elite talent and was able to weather the storm and remain calm. Royval gave him an opening on the ground and Pantoja took advantage and submitted him in round 2.
Luis Saldana / Mark O. Madsen / Jared Cannonier parlay (-2 units)
We came close to hitting this parlay as we only missed it by one fight. Madsen was able to win a closely contested decision. Cannonier was able to win by more of a one sided decision. We ended up losing the parlay on the 1st leg of it when Saldana lost by unanimous decision. He was visibly the better fighter but sustained a foot injury early in the fight and that changed everything.
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Chikadze (PLAYS)
Mana Martinez over Guido Cannetti in Round 1 +220 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 8/27/21.
We don’t normally like to back fighters who lack a UFC victory on their record but there’s an exception for everything. Martinez is a bonafide finisher with big power. All of his wins including his amateur fights have ended in rounds 1 or 2. Cannetti on the other hand has been finished in almost all of his losses. Given those trends we’re taking a shot on Martinez to get the job done early at nice plus odds.
JJ Aldrich over Vanessa Demopoulos ITD +450 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 8/27/21.
This bet was worth a stab because the line we were able to get was over a dollar better than anywhere else. Also Aldrich is a good fighter with good striking skills. She sports a 5-3 record in the UFC.
Demopoulos on the other hand isn’t very good and really doesn’t belong in the UFC. She’s undersized and this is a mismatch. We can see a scenario where Aldrich puts it on her and the ref needs to save Demopoulos. And at those juicy odds it’s well worth the risk.
Darren Stewart over Dustin Jacoby +155 (1 unit) & by decision +350 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 8/27/21.
Darren Stewart doesn’t have the greatest record but he’s battle tested in the UFC. He offers good output with decent power and has underrated wrestling. The type of fighter he struggles against are ones with a strong ground game which Jacoby doesn’t have.
Dustin Jacoby is a one dimensional striker who’s on a 5 fight unbeaten streak. We feel that Stewart will look to make this a dirty fight on the inside not allowing Jacoby to strike at range. He may also look to take down Jacoby and earn some control time as well. If either or both of those things happen then he’ll put himself in a good position to get a decision victory.
Sam Alvey over Wellington Turman +105 (1 unit) & ITD +275 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 8/27/21.
This is a fight where it appears the wrong fighter is favored. Turman is 1-3 in the UFC and is coming off of 2 brutal KO finishes in his last 2 fights. His submission game is his strength but everything else is questionable.
Sam Alvey is a grizzled veteran who’s most likely fighting for his job here. He’s got big power and is hard to take down. More than likely this fight should play out on the feet. We expect a good showing from Alvey in this spot with a KO not being out of the question.
Bryan Battle over Gilbert Urbina ITD +200 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/27/21.
Bryan Battle is a finisher who can win on the ground or on the feet. He earned his way to this fight by going undefeated on The Ultimate Fighter. Urbina on the other hand got here by being a replacement for the injured Tresean Gore after being finished by him in his last fight.
He looked like a human punching bag in that fight as he got hurt numerous times ultimately getting finished. We see Battle being able to hurt Urbina as well and getting him out of there before the final bell rings.
Mana Martinez ITD / Alvey & Turman FDGTD +215 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/27/21.
We see violence happening in both of these fights so we parlayed them together. As stated earlier we feel Martinez should be able to finish Cannetti at some point during the fight. We also expect Alvey to win with KO being a reasonable outcome. Just in case Turman is able to finish Alvey we took fight doesn’t go the distance for added protection.
Jamall Emmers / Kevin Lee / Ricky Turcios parlay +333 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/27/21.
This parlay was placed with fight experience in mind. All 3 of the fighters in the parlay hold a major experience advantage over their opponents. That experience is either by number of fights, UFC fights, or just big fight experience.
Jamall Emmers appears to have Pat Sabatini covered everywhere the fight goes. He’s also fought the much better competition throughout his career. We see him most likely outpointing Sabatini for a decision victory.
Kevin Lee is relatively new to the welterweight division but not to the UFC. He’s had some big fights at lightweight and most of his losses are to the best of the best. We feel he’ll try to implement his wrestling and submission game against Rodriguez.
Ricky Turcios has twice as many fights as Brady Hiestand and has fought some recognizable names already. Hiestand is talented but he’s very young and inexperienced. This should be a closely contested fight but we have to side with the more experienced fighter.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
