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Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming back from a week off and a losing night of bets for the last UFC card. Our bets ended up going 1-4 for a total loss of 2.4 units. Year to date we are down 24.02 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Till (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Jack Shore by decision (1.60 units)
This was our only bright spot for last weeks card. Shore was clearly the better fighter going into the fight. He’s a finisher but we felt Sholinian was tough and defensively responsible. He showed that when he was able to survive Shore taking his back. Shore wasn’t able to finish him and cruised to a unanimous decision victory.
Losing Bets
Charles Jourdain ITD (-1 unit)
This bet started off the night on the wrong foot. We were so focused on Erosa’s history of being finished and let that cloud our judgement. The truth is Jourdain is flashy but he doesn’t possess the big power his record indicates. Erosa was able to withstand Jourdain’s offense and get a finish of his own later in the fight.
Khalil Rountree by decision (-1 unit)
On the surface this looks like a bad bet since Rountree finished Bukauskas in round 2. However it felt like it was headed to a decision victory for Rountree. He was dominating the striking but Bukauskas was tough and hung in there. The bet ultimately became a loser when Rountree fired off a nasty kick to the knee that dropped Bukauskas and made that leg useless.
David Zawada ITD (-1 unit)
Coming into the fight we felt Morono fights reckless at times and could be hit. What we didn’t realize is that Zawada is low output and wouldn’t take advantage of it. It turns out Zawada was there to be hit and just let Morono tee off on him over the course of 3 rounds.
Darren Till ITD (-1 unit)
This was another bad read on our part similar to the bad read we had on the Jourdain fight. We were so focused on Brunson’s past history of being finished that we let that cloud our judgement. The truth is he’s been on fire lately and Till isn’t a big finisher. Once Till couldn’t stop Brunson’s takedowns it was over for him and our bet.
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs Spann (PLAYS)
Carlston Harris over Impa Kasanganay ITD +185 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/17/21.
Carlston Harris lacks a history of UFC experience but has twice as much mma experience as Kasanganay. In fact he’s beaten a couple of current UFC fighters while
on the regional scene. Harris has good striking and is equally dangerous on the ground. We feel he has a realistic chance to finish Kasanganay if the opportunity presents itself.
Erin Blanchfield over Sarah Alpar ITD +275 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/17/21.
Erin Blanchfield is making her UFC debut and is being given an opponent she could style on. Much like Carlston Harris she’s beaten UFC caliber fighters on the regional scene. She’s
been able to win inside the distance in half of her fights. When you couple that with the caliber of opponent she’s being given here it’s more than reasonable to believe she can get a finish in this spot.
Raquel Pennington over Pannie Kianzad by decision +150 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/17/21.
There’s a huge difference in the quality of opponents for each fighter. Kianzad is on a nice 4 fight winning streak but she’s been beating bottom to mid level fighters. She’s always lost when given a step up in competition and Pennington is just that.
Pennington has many losses on her record but who’s she been losing to? The answer is current and former world champions. This is a big step down in competition for her. And because Pennington isn’t a big finisher we feel she will most likely get the victory via decision.
Antonio Arroyo over Joaquin Buckley +150 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/17/21.
This fight should play out on the feet as both fighters like to strike. Buckley is still living off the notoriety of his all time highlight KO over Impa Kasanganay. Arroyo was given grapple heavy opponents in his 1st 2 UFC fights and wasn’t able to show off his striking. He’s the naturally bigger fighter here and shouldn’t have to worry about getting taken down in this spot.
Arman Tsarukyan over Christos Giagos ITD +160 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/17/21.
Arman Tsarukyan is clearly the better fighter in this spot. He has Giagos covered in every area of mma. Tsarukyan isn’t a big finisher but Giagos is a known gasser. We expect Giagos to look good early but start to slowly fade as the fight goes on. Tsarukyan is relentless and if Giagos slows down as we expect him to, we can see Tsarukyan getting the finish later in the fight.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
