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Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off of a small losing night of bets for the last UFC card. Our bets ended up going 2-4 for a total loss of 0.30 units. Year to date we are down 21.37 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Jalin Turner ITD (2.60 units)
This fight was destined to end inside the distance and we were on the right side. Medic was undefeated and was looking unstoppable but that was against inferior competition. Turner had several losses on his record but he was battle tested. It turns out that Turner was too fast and strong for Medic to handle and he was able to finish Medic in a matter of minutes.
Chris Daukaus ITD (1.10 units)
Daukaus proved to be way too fast and athletic for Abdurakhimov to handle. Daukaus was very close to ending the fight in round 1 but Abdurakhimov managed to survive the round. It only took a little more than a minute into round 2 for Daukaus to dispose of Abdurakhimov for good.
Losing Bets
Chris Daukaus round 1 (-0.5 units)
As mentioned earlier we felt Daukaus would be too fast and athletic for Abdurakhimov to handle and ultimately he was. The problem is we limited ourselves to a 5 minute window for that to occur. It almost happened at the end of the round but Abdurakhimov managed to survive.
Curtis Blaydes ITD (-1 unit)
We were confident that Blaydes would be able to get the fight to the ground and he did multiple times. The problem is that Blaydes wasn’t able to implement much ground and pound and was content just controlling Rozenstruik. No ground and pound means no chance at an inside the distance finish.
Merab Dvalishvili round 3 (-0.5 units)
This fight was a rollercoaster ride in round 1. Moraes went from nearly getting the finish to nearly getting finished in round 1. By round 2 he was completely done and it was only a matter of time before he would get finished. He almost made it to round 3 where he surely would’ve gotten finished but the ref had seen enough with just over 30 seconds left in round 2.
Omar Morales / Turner & Medic under 2.5 rounds / Chris Daukaus / Jessica Andrade / Curtis Blaydes parlay (-2 units)
This parlay died on the very 1st leg when Morales wasn’t able to implement his striking and actually got submitted in round 2. We felt he would be able to land on the hittable Pierce and that wasn’t the case. Pierce was able to wear down Morales and finish him in round 2. Sadly all 4 of the other legs of the parlay hit with ease.
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Walker (PLAYS)
Devonte Smith over Jamie Mullarkey ITD +140 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/1/21.
Devonte Smith was looking like a blue chip prospect in the lightweight division prior to his fight against Khama Worthy. He surprisingly was KO’d in round 1 as a huge favorite and the hype stopped. He won his comeback fight nearly 2 years later and is making a relatively quick turnaround here against Mullarkey.
Jamie Mullarkey is ultra tough but he is very hittable. We feel that Smith’s speed and power could be too much for Mullarkey to handle. Mullarkey has been stopped in the past and was hurt in his UFC debut against Brad Riddell. We’re taking a shot on the more dynamic fighter in Smith getting the job done inside the distance.
Karol Rosa over Bethe Correia ITD +300 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/1/21.
This is Bethe Correia’s retirement fight and she’s a huge underdog. She’s fought the best of the best in her career and lost to all of them. Correia is relatively durable but has been finished multiple times in her career.
Karol Rosa isn’t a huge puncher but she is a high volume fighter. Our feeling is that she will put a pace on Correia and outclass her badly. Whether or not she can finish Correia remains to be seen. But with this being Correia’s last fight if she’s losing bad maybe her or the ref will decide to get a head start on retirement before the final horn.
Antonina Shevchenko over Casey O’Neil +175 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/1/21.
This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Shevchenko is the striker and has fought very good competition in her UFC career. She’s been dominated on the ground in the past and that’s what O’Neil will look to do to her as well.
Casey O’Neil is undefeated and has been dominant in her UFC career. The problem is that she’s beaten nobody of quality. This fight will come down to where it takes place. We feel Shevchenko will dominate on the feet and will look to avoid the ground at all costs. If that happens then she will most definitely win a decision if not by KO.
Jared Gordon over Joe Solecki by decision +220 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/1/21.
This should be a competitive fight that most likely will go to decision. If we believe that’ll be the case then we need to look at how the fight should play out. Gordon is high output on the feet or ground. He will need to avoid getting subbed by Solecki who’s BJJ is impressive. If Solecki can’t sub Gordon then it stands to reason he will lose a decision based on being out-struck by the more active Gordon.
Misha Cirkunov over Krzysztof Jotko +120 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/1/21.
Cirkunov is moving down to middleweight after fighting some big names at light heavyweight. He’s had trouble in the past with big power punchers. Luckily for him he’s not getting that type of matchup here against Jotko.
Cirkunov has decent power himself and is more dangerous on the ground. Jotko is good but doesn’t possess fight ending power that has given Cirkunov trouble in the past. With that being said we feel Cirkunov is live to pull the slight upset in his middleweight debut.
Niko Price over Alex Oliveira ITD +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/1/21.
This fight has ends inside the distance written all over it. Both fighters are strong and absorb a lot of punishment. We feel Price is a little bit stronger and is more durable. Price has freakish power and has finished fights in the past in unorthodox ways. We feel there’s a good chance that Price will hurt Oliveira at some point and can finish him shortly after.
Kyle Daukaus over Kevin Holland by decision +240 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/2/21.
Daukaus is 1-2 in the UFC but was given some tough matchups in his losses. He should look to get this fight to the ground where Holland has poor takedown defense. Also Holland has been known to accept bottom position and lose rounds because of it. Neither fighter pack big power and both fighters are defensively responsible on the ground. If Daukaus can get the fight to the ground he’ll put himself in a great position to get a decision victory.
Karol Rosa / Joe Solecki & Jared Gordon over 1.5 rounds / Kevin Holland & Kyle Daukaus over 1.5 rounds / Thiago Santos & Johnny Walker fight doesn’t go the distance parlay +134 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/1/21.
Karol Rosa is a big favorite who should roll in her fight. Solecki & Gordon both lack power and are durable so getting past 1.5 rounds should happen. The exact same can be said for Holland & Daukaus. Finally the Santos & Walker fight is destined to end inside the distance. Both fighters pack big power and it would be a miracle if that fight made it to a decision.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed