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We finally had a winning night in 2021. It wasn’t much but at least it wasn’t a loss. Our bets ended up going 2-3 for a total win of 0.35 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Volkov (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Seung Woo Choi (+2 units)
Choi was able to win by being able to keep the fight on the feet. He defended multiple takedown attempts by Zalal and was able to do more in the stand up game. Even though Zalal was 3-1 prior to this fight in the UFC the line was too wide. He didn’t deserve to be that big of a favorite because his opposition was lower level.
Lara Procopio (+1.35 units)
This fight played out different than we thought it would. We expected a mostly stand up fight with Procopio outvoluming McCann. The fight played out mostly on the ground where Procopio was the more dominant grappler. McCann was close to submitting her twice along the way however.
Losing Bets
Justin Jaynes (-1 unit)
This was plain and simple a bad bet on our part. It was based more on a feeling that Smith might not be right mentally rather than the actual matchup. Smith was too fast and was much the better fighter.
Manel Kape (-1 unit)
Losing this bet was frustrating because Kape was reluctant to let his hands go. He stood around too much without being active. Pantoja is a good fighter and had something to do with that.
Alistair Overeem (-1 unit)
This was another bad bet and frustrating one at the same time. When Overeem decided to let his hands go good things happened. However he spent too much time turtled up absorbing uncontested shots from Volkov. He took too many clean shots until he couldn’t take any more.
UFC 258: Usman vs Burns (PLAYS)
Julian Marquez over Maki Pitolo -170 (1 unit) & by sub +900 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 2/11/21.
Marquez is a bit of a mystery here with his last fight being close to 3 years ago. When he was last seen he showed promise. He has some quality wins over decent competition on his record. Marquez should get the win here. We’re taking a stab that he could get it done by sub at great odds.
Maki Pitolo has a cool nickname but isn’t very good. His only win in the UFC was against someone who was halfway retired. He’s also lost multiple times to low level fighters. Pitolo’s job most likely is on the line but even so he’s probably not good enough to get the win here.
Kamaru Usman over Gilbert Burns by decision +125 (1.25 units) Bet was placed on 2/11/21.
Usman is quietly one of the greatest UFC welterweights of all time. He’s been dominate in basically all of his UFC fights. What he isn’t however is a good finisher. He’s been a decision machine throughout his career and we feel that’s most likely to happen here.
Burns is undefeated since his move up to 170lbs. With that being said this is a bad stylistic matchup for him. His best chance to win appears to be by an early finish. If not it seems unlikely he can win by submission and even less likely by decision. We believe he’ll most likely get controlled for most of the fight and lose a lopsided decision.
Belal Muhammad over Dhiego Lima by decision -139 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 2/11/21.
Muhammad is much the better fighter here as he’s ranked. He’s already beaten multiple fighters better than Lima. Much like Usman however his isn’t much of a finisher. We’re banking on that being the case here too
Lima is on a nice little win streak but this is a big step up in competition. He also isn’t much of a finisher. It’s unlikely that he’ll do enough to win a decision so we feel the best value is on Muhammad by decision.
Miranda Maverick over Gillian Robertson ITD +325 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 2/11/21.
Maverick is a good prospect already in just her 2nd UFC fight. She’s well rounded and physical. We’re banking on her physicality to come through here for a stoppage victory. Even though she has limited UFC experience, she’s fought decent fighters.
Robertson is more experienced but she’s pretty much sub or bust. Her striking needs improvement as she relies too much on her grappling. We feel Maverick will survive the ground and breakdown Robertson along the way. Robertson has quit to physical fighters and we feel Maverick fits that mold.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
