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Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off of a winning night of bets for the last UFC card. Our bets ended up going 3-2 for a total win of 2.95 units. Year to date we are down 21.07 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs Spann (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Carlston Harris ITD (1.85 units)
The night started off right for us here as Harris was able to get a 1st round stoppage. The wrong fighter was favored as Harris held many advantages over Kasanganay. He was able to hurt Kasanganay on the feet and finish him shortly after.
Raquel Pennington by decision (1.50 units)
This fight played out how we thought it would. Kianzad was on a 4 fight winning streak but it was against mediocre competition. Pennington doesn’t have the greatest record but she had been in there with the greatest fighters. She was able to control Kianzad for long periods of time and was able to out-strike her as well. And because she’s not a big finisher, her winning by decision was the most likely outcome.
Arman Tsarukyan ITD (1.60 units)
This turned out to be a total mismatch as Tsarukyan was able to end the fight in less than half a round. We felt it would go longer but Tsarukyan was able to clip Giagos early and finish him shortly after. Tsarukyan proved he can finish people and is going to be a problem for the lightweight division.
Losing Bets
Erin Blanchfield ITD (-1 unit)
Blanchfield completely dominated this fight and it was a bad beat of sorts that she didn’t get the finish. She had Alpar hurt a few times where the ref would’ve been justified in stopping the fight. Alpar to her credit is tough as nails and was able to make it to the final horn.
Antonio Arroyo (-1 unit)
Arroyo was finally given a matchup where he could be successful and he didn’t come through. He had success in the fight and was arguably winning it going into round 3. However Buckley was able to change everything with one punch and finished Arroyo in round 3. Arroyo in now 0-3 in the UFC and most likely lost his job.
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega (PLAYS)
Omar Morales / Turner & Medic under 2.5 rounds / Chris Daukaus / Jessica Andrade / Curtis Blaydes parlay +641 (2 units) Bet was placed on 9/24/21.
The Morales – Pierce fight will come down to where the fight plays out. Pierce is extremely hittable and will be in trouble if he can’t take the fight to the ground. We feel Morales will keep the fight standing and pick Pierce apart.
Turner and Medic have a combined 100% finish rate. Turner has also been finished in 3 of his 5 losses. Medic is undefeated and has only been to the 2nd round once so his cardio is unknown. Everything lines up for this fight to end before the final horn.
Chris Daukaus is 3-0 in the UFC with 3 1st round finishes. Abdurakhimov is now 40 years old and is coming off a 2 year layoff. He’s had trouble with athletic fighters in the past and Daukaus is athletic with fast hands.
Jessica Andrade is a former champion who’s fought the best women fighters in the world. Calvillo is good but doesn’t have nearly the same type of experience. Andrade is the better striker and should win if the fight remains standing.
Curtis Blaydes is hands down the best wrestler in the heavyweight division. Unfortunately for him he’s been KO’d in all 3 of his losses. Rozenstruik has big power but poor take down defense. Blaydes should be able to avoid the big shot and cruise to a win.
Jalin Turner over Uros Medic ITD +260 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/24/21.
As stated earlier this fight should end before the final horn. We’re going with the more experienced and UFC proven fighter in this spot. Turner has a winning record in the UFC while Medic holds a victory over someone who’s no longer with the promotion. Medic’s cardio is basically unproven beyond round 1 and we feel Turner is good enough to get the finish early or later in the fight.
Chris Daukaus over Shamil Abdurakhimov ITD +110 (1 unit) & round 1 +325 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 9/24/21.
This fight appears to be fairly easy to handicap. Daukaus is the younger, more athletic fighter with fast hands and good power. Abdurakhimov has been gone the last 2 years and has had trouble against athletic fighters in the past. It’s more than reasonable to see Daukaus blitzing him in round 1 like he’s done to his last 3 opponents.
Merab Dvalishvili over Marlon Moraes round 3 +1200 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 9/24/21.
Marlon Moraes appears to have dropped off ever since his crushing defeat for the title against Henry Cejudo. He’s 1-2 since that fight and his win over Aldo was very questionable. Moraes is most dangerous in round 1 but tails off the longer the fight goes.
Merab is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC with elite cardio. If he can avoid Moraes’ freakish power in round 1 that would put himself in a position to dominate the rest of the fight. When you couple that with Moraes’ weakening gas tank then a 3rd round finish is conceivable.
Curtis Blaydes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik ITD +110 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/24/21.
This fight has similarities to the Moraes & Dvalishvili fight. Great wrestlers vs big power strikers. If Blaydes can avoid getting KO’d then he should be able to takedown Rozenstruik and roll. He has a dominant top game and Rozenstruik doesn’t have a great getup or submission game. If Blaydes can get on top of him then the opportunity to get a finish on his own or with the help of the ref will be in play.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed