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Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off disappointing night of bets for the last UFC card. Our bets ended up going 1-6-1 for a total loss of 3.30 units. Year to date we are down 24.67 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Walker (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Jared Gordon by decision (2.20 units)
Our read proved to be correct on this fight. We felt Gordon would be the busier fighter and would out point the surging Solecki and that’s what happened. Gordon’s submission defense was on point as was his top game earning him the decision victory.
Losing Bets
Devonte Smith (-1 unit)
Our read was off for this fight. We felt Smith’s speed and power would be too much for Mullarkey to handle. It was when Smith decided to let his hands go. The problem was that was too few and far between. With that being the case it was Mullarkey who applied constant pressure. And that pressure eventually broke Smith in round 2.
Karol Rosa ITD (-0.5 units)
Rosa was clearly the much better fighter and appeared capable of putting Correia away multiple times. It seemed like Rosa let her hang around though to make it to the end of her retirement fight. There was a long embrace of respect at the end of the fight seemingly confirming that.
Antonina Shevchenko (-1 unit)
In this striker vs grappler matchup it was the grappler who got the nod. We felt Schevchenko would be able to keep the fight standing but that wasn’t the case. Casey was able to take her down with ease and control her on the ground. That control eventually led to a ground and pound finish.
Misha Cirkunov (-1 unit)
We were expecting more out of Cirkunov in his middleweight debut. He seemed to have a favorable matchup but didn’t take advantage of it. Ultimately it was Jotko who was the more active fighter and got the split decision victory. Cirkunov is now 2-5 in his last 7 fights and needs to evaluate if he still wants to do this for a living.
Niko Price ITD (-1 unit)
In a fight that seemed destined to end inside the distance, Price got the decision victory. The fight was exciting and Price clearly won. But much to our surprise Oliveira was able to last and make it to the final horn.
Kyle Daukaus by decision PUSH (0.5 units)
This fight was controversially called a no contest after an accidental clash of heads. Holland was temporarily knocked out then quickly regained consciousness. Daukaus was able to submit Holland shortly after. However after much deliberation the fight was ultimately called a no contest.
Karol Rosa / Joe Solecki & Jared Gordon over 1.5 rounds / Kevin Holland & Kyle Daukaus over 1.5 rounds / Thiago Santos & Johnny Walker fight doesn’t go the distance parlay (-1 unit)
This parlay started off right with Rosa getting the easy decision victory. Then it stayed alive with the Gordon fight easily going past 1.5 rounds. We thought it was a losing ticket when Daukaus submitted Holland in round 1 but that fight was called a no contest which kept our ticket alive. It officially became a losing ticket however when the Santos fight surprisingly went the distance. It’s amazing that the fight went the full 5 rounds given their fight styles and history.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez (PLAYS)
Sabina Mazo over Mariya Agapova ITD +275 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/8/21.
Mazo is the more seasoned fighter here with a much better body of work. She is a high output pressure fighter and that style should serve her well in this spot.
Agapova is coming off a shocking loss to Shana Dobson as a huge favorite. Her gas tank failed her in that fight and it will get tested against the aggressive Mazo. We feel Mazo’s pace and pressure might be able to break Agapova again so we played Mazo inside the distance.
Mackenzie Dern over Marina Rodriguez ITD +100 (2 units) / Round 1 +400 (0.5 units) / Round 2 +550 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 10/8/21.
We are all in on Mackenzie Dern this week. She’s been surging of late and is making a run to a straw-weight title fight. This fight boils down to where it will take place. If Dern can’t get the fight to the ground she’ll most likely get pieced up on the feet. If she can get the fight to the ground she’ll most likely submit Rodriguez. We feel the fight will eventually hit the floor at some point.
Rodriguez is the superior striker but she has poor take down defense. Against her previous opponents she was able to survive on the ground. She won’t be able to survive against Dern on the ground. Dern is the most decorated women’s BJJ practitioner in all of MMA. We feel Dern will be able to get the fight to the ground within the first 2 rounds and end the fight. If the fight makes it to round 3 then most likely Dern is going to lose.
Damon Jackson / Sabina Mazo / Matheus Nicolau / Randy Brown / Mackenzie Dern parlay +594 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/8/21.
Damon Jackson is an aggressive fighter who want to take the fight to the ground. Charles Rosa has poor take down defense. We see Jackson controlling Rosa on the ground and getting the victory.
We already broke down the Mazo fight earlier. She is the more experienced and more battle tested fighter. Agapova is a bit of a head case and can’t seem to land with a gym for a long period of time.
Matheus Nicolau is the more skilled fighter in his matchup against Tim Elliott. Elliott is past his prime and always seems to lose against fighters that are better than him.
Randy Brown is athletic and holds a huge edge in quality of opposition over Jared Gooden. He’s the more gifted fighter and has beaten multiple fighters in his career who are better than Gooden. Jared Gooden has yet to defeat someone of Randy Brown’s caliber and would seemingly need a finish in this spot.
As stated earlier we’re all in on Mackenzie Dern. We feel Dern will only need the fight to hit the ground one time to give her a realistic chance at a submission victory. And because Rodriguez has a history of getting taken down we see the fight eventually hitting the floor. Dern should win inside the distance which would set her up for a title shot in the not so distant future.
Image Credit: UFC
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed