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Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a horrible night of bets for the last UFC card. Our bets ended up going 0-5 for a total loss of 5 units. Year to date we are down 29.67 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
None
Losing Bets
Sabina Mazo (-1 unit)
Like every bet from last week, our read was off on this fight. We felt Mazo was the better, more aggressive fighter. It turns out Agapova was the better fighter. She landed more strikes and prevented Mazo from starting her offense. We read too much into the Dobson loss for Agapova and forgot that Mazo is a punching bag.
Mackenzie Dern (-3 units total)
We were all in on Dern last week and once again we were wrong. We played Dern inside the distance and in rounds 1 & 2. Rodriguez surprised us by being able to survive on the ground with Dern on more than one occasion. Once Dern wasn’t able to submit her it was one way traffic for Rodriguez on the feet and cruised to an easy decision victory.
Damon Jackson / Sabina Mazo / Matheus Nicolau / Randy Brown / Mackenzie Dern parlay (-1 unit)
This parlay started off right with Jackson wining the 1st leg of it. But like everything else last week, it came crashing down shortly after. We had Mazo on the ticket and once she lost the parlay was over. Even had she won we would’ve lost it on the final leg when Dern lost by unanimous decision.
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs Dumont (PLAYS)
We’re taking a different betting approach this week and possibly beyond. Since we’re down nearly 30 units for the year what we’ve been doing isn’t working. We’re going to focus on a primary 2 leg parlay which if it hits it’ll guarantee a small profit for the week. Also it’ll give us an opportunity to win more as we tack on different legs to it if they hit. Of course if any part of the the 2 leg parlay doesn’t hit then that bet and all remaining bets will lose so it comes with big risk.
This method of betting has been successfully implemented by Cody Saftic (@CjSaftic & Dog or Pass Podcast). Saftic has been on fire with his bets lately and even though he won’t admit it, he’s one of the if not the sharpest MMA handicapper in the game. Of course we have to get our picks correct to have our own success so here we go.
Lupita Godinez / Manon Fiorot parlay -106 (3 units) Bet was placed on 10/14/21.
Lupita Godinez is looking to one up Khamzat Chimaev by winning 2 UFC fights in a matter of just 7 days. She just fought last week and was impressive in beating the overmatched Silvana Gomez Juarez in just over 4 minutes.
Now she’s stepping in on short notice, moving up a weight class to take on Luana Carolina. Carlolina is 2-1 in the UFC but hasn’t been overly impressive in her wins. Godinez is better than her in most areas of MMA. But she’s the smaller fighter fighting again only 7 days from her last fight. With all things being considered we feel Godinez will be successful in this matchup and should get the victory most likely by decision but a finish wouldn’t be out of the question.
Manon Fiorot couldn’t have been more impressive in her 2 UFC fights winning both by TKO. She’s an elite striker with good takedown defense. Mayra Bueno Silva is no slouch herself with only 1 loss on her record. She has good power and a surprisingly good ground game. She does get hit often however and doesn’t consistently look to take the fight to the ground. We feel this fight will remain standing for the most part where Fiorot has a huge advantage. She’s the much better striker and packs good power for the division. If Bueno Silva can’t get the fight to the ground we feel she’s going to get picked apart on the feet and ultimately lose.
Lupita Godinez / Manon Fiorot / Jim Miller parlay +176 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/14/21.
We’re adding Jim Miller to the primary base parlay in a separate, smaller ticket for better odds. Miller has a huge advantage over his opponent in skill, experience, and quality of opposition just to name a few. He’s consistently beaten fighters such as Gonzalez and lost to fighters that are better than him. Gonzalez would most likely need to hurt and and finish Miller to get the victory in this spot. While that’s not impossible we feel it’s unlikely to happen. Most likely Miller’s experience edge will show and he should get the win.
Lupita Godinez / Manon Fiorot / Jim Miller /Norma Dumont parlay +480 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/14/21.
Norma Dumont is a good fighter who’s flying a little under the radar at the moment. We feel this is a good stylistic matchup for her against Aspen Ladd. Dumont is the much cleaner striker with fast hands. Ladd’s striking isn’t her strong suit and her striking defense is poor. She’ll look to take Dumont to the ground but we feel that won’t be an easy task to accomplish. If Ladd isn’t able to get the fight to the ground and be in top position then she should have a hard time getting the victory.
Lupita Godinez / Manon Fiorot / Jim Miller /Norma Dumont / Brandon Davis parlay +1264 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/14/21.
Brandon Davis is making his return to the UFC after stringing together 4 wins since being cut. In his 1st stint with the UFC he had 5 losses but most of those were against high quality opposition. He’s returning with a more favorable matchup against Danaa Batgerel. Batgerel is a banger who’s not scared to get hit. Unfortunately for him he is easy to hit and we see Davis being able to score points against him. This should be a competitive fight where Davis is a live underdog to get the win.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
