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Unfortunately we had another losing week for the last fight card. Our bets ended up going 1-3 on the night for a total loss of 3.89 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +6.65 units with an overall ROI of 3%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 8%.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Woodley (RESULTS)
Winning bets
Tyson Nam (+1.11 units)
We pointed out how this matchup was between an established UFC veteran and a UFC newcomer. Nam also had a distinct striking advantage and that came to fruition when Nam was able to hurt and stop Rivera in round 2. Looking back Nam should’ve been a bigger favorite given the big experience and striking advantage he had.
Losing bets
Randa Markos (-2 units)
Looking at this matchup we felt Markos had the better striking and would be able to keep the fight on the feet. She’s an excellent wrestler but we figured she would avoid the ground at all costs because of Dern’s exceptional BJJ. Unfortunately for us she made a huge error and jumped on Dern when Dern missed landing a kick and ended up on her back. Of course it was only a short amount of time after that Dern submitted her in round 1.
Ryan Spann (-2 units)
This was a high variance fight that unfortunately we were on the wrong side of. Spann was able to hurt Walker a couple of times but couldn’t finish him. To Walker’s credit he hung in there and was able to get the finish by throwing some questionable elbows to Spann’s head. Walker will continue to be a fade against athletic, capable fighters.
5 fight parlay – Ewell, Chimaev, Laramie, Price, Covington (-1 unit)
We lost this chalk parlay when Laramie surprisingly was submitted by Minner in less than a minute in round 1. All other pieces of the parlay hit except the Price fight which ended up being scored as a draw. That’s what happens when you parlay too many pieces – one loses and the parlay becomes a loser.
UFC 253: Adesanya vs Costa (PLAYS)
Israel Adesanya over Paulo Costa -200 (5 units MAX BET) Bet was placed on 9/24/20.
This is a rare title fight matchup between two undefeated fighters with distinct style differences – power vs precision. Costa brings a nonstop, relentless, aggressive fight style to the octagon. He comes forward and brings the fight to his opponent. It’s worked every time so far but Adesanya isn’t like his other opponents.
Adesanya is a precision counter striker who should make Costa pay if he comes into the pocket reckless like he normally does. He should use his size and movement to frustrate Costa and either win a lopsided decision or possibly finish him later in the fight.
Hakeem Dawodu over Zubaira Tukhugov -100 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/24/20.
This is a closely lined fight and we’re going with the better striker in this spot. Dawodu is the better pure striker and the faster fighter as well. Tukhugov is the better grappler but actually doesn’t mind having a striking battle. If he reverts to taking the fight to the ground he’s not much of a submission threat and Dawodu has a good get up game. We see Dawodu winning the striking battle and getting the decision victory.
Brandon Royval over Kai Kara-France +200 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 9/24/20.
This is another striker vs grappler matchup and we’re taking the grappler at nice dog odds. Kara-France is the better striker here but Royval isn’t too far behind. Where Royval excels is in the grappling, specifically submissions. He has an active submission game and it won’t take much for him to capitalize on a submission of Kara-France makes a mistake. We feel the risk is worth the reward of taking Royval here at +200.
Brad Riddell, Dominick Reyes, Ketlen Viera parlay +161 (3 units) Bet was placed on 9/24/20.
Brad Riddell is the superior striker here and is a low key star in the making. Da Silva won’t be able to handle Riddell on the feet and won’t be able to do enough on the ground to get the decision.
Dominick Reyes is going to be too athletic for Blachowicz to handle. Jan is the better grappler but will have a hard time taking down the younger Reyes. As long as the fight plays out on the feet Reyes will be at a huge advantage.
Ketlen Viera is better than Eubanks wherever the fight takes place. Eubanks is coming off a nice win over Avila recently but Viera is on a different level. Viera should rebound nicely from her first defeat here in this spot.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
