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Sadly our winning ways only lasted for one week. Our bets ended up going 2-5 on the night for a total loss of 1.87 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +5.39 units with an overall ROI of 2%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 7%.
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Texeira (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Gustavo Lopez & ITD (+1.64 units)
Gustavo Lopez came through with a 1st round submission of Anthony Birchak. We felt Lopez was being overlooked due to the fact he was soundly beat by Merab Dvalishvili in his last fight. Birchak looked like an older, diminished, fighter in his return to the UFC.
Losing bets
Eduardo Garagorri & ITD (-1.5 units)
We took a chance on Eduardo Garagorri and it didn’t pan out. He had his moments where he hurt Elkins but he just couldn’t finish the job. Garagorri couldn’t stop the takedown and that’s what ultimately led to him losing and getting submitted. Darren Elkins is still a shot fighter, it’s just that Garagorri wasn’t the fighter to expose that.
Ramiz Brahimaj & ITD (-1.5 units)
Ramiz Brahimaj’s game plan for this fight was very puzzling. He’s been a submission specialist in all of his fights but never once tried to take this fight to the ground. Instead he got pieced up on the feet badly and even got his ear detached for his efforts. I’ll never understand why he didn’t attempt a single takedown.
Tanner Boser & ITD (-1.5 units)
Tanner Boser came into this fight on a 2 fight win streak and looked like he might be a dark horse contender in the heavyweight division. Andrei Arlovski was able to slow down that momentum by giving him that vet lesson and outpointing him by unanimous decision. Boser was too hesitant and needed to let his hands go more to give himself a chance at winning.
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs Dos Anjos (PLAYS)
Geraldo De Freitas over Tony Gravely +120 (1 unit) & ITD +400 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/12/20.
This is basically a pick’em fight with Gravely being the slight favorite. He has a wrestling base so he most likely will look to take the fight to the ground. The thing that sticks out like a sore thumb with Gravely is that he’s been submitted in 5 of his 6 losses.
Geraldo De Freitas is Brazilian so you know BJJ is a big part of his fighting style. He will welcome the fight playing out in the mat. De Freitas has already tasted victory in the UFC and recently lost a close split decision. Give us the Brazilian against the fighter against the fighter who’s been submitted 5 times.
Louis Smolka over Jose Quiñonez -140 (1 unit) & ITD +200 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/12/20.
Betting on Louis Smolka is a very risky proposition. At times he looks like a world beater, and at other times he looks horrible. He typically beats opponents he’s better than and losses to opponents who are ranked or of high caliber.
Jose Quiñonez isn’t ranked or of high caliber in our opinion. He’s an average UFC fighter at best. Give us the more experienced Smolka in this spot as the slight favorite. This fight has the feel of finishing inside the distance one way or another.
Brendan Allen over Sean Strickland -115 (1 unit) & ITD +260 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 11/12/20.
Whoever is able to dictate where the fight plays out will be the winner of this fight. Sean Strickland is the better boxer and if the fight stays standing he will win either by decision or stoppage. He’s competent on the ground but that’s not where he wants the fight to take place against Allen.
Brendan Allen will try early and often to get the fight to the ground where he’s the superior grappler. He’s going to be the bigger fighter of the two and can slowly start to wear on Strickland if the fight hits the mat. If he’s not able to take Strickland down then he’ll lose because he gets hit too clean and Strickland is a good striker.
Rafael Dos Anjos over Paul Felder -180 (2 units) & ITD +240 (0.5 units) Bet was placed in 11/12/20.
Rafael Dos Anjos tends to shine against strikers and has difficulty against wrestling based fighters. Paul Felder is a striking based fighter who took this fight on 5 days notice. He’s tough as nails but will need to overcome a lot to get the victory here. Felder is a low volume fighter who will have a hard time winning if he doesn’t get a finish.
Rafael Dos Anjos is the former lightweight champion who’s literally fought the best of the best in both the lightweight and welterweight divisions. He’s coming into this fight a loser of 4 of his last 5 fights. However this time he’s fighting a lightweight, on short notice, who’s not a wrestler. With all those things going in his favor he should be able to get victory in this spot.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
