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We finally had a winning night of bets for last weeks card. Our bets ended up going 3-3 on the night for a total win of 2.69 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +5.57 units with an overall ROI of 2%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 5%.
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs Clark (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Anthony Smith & Devin Clark fight doesn’t go the distance (+4.24 units)
We hit our max bet here when the fight ended in the 1st round after Smith was able to submit Clark. The reason we max bet it was because of the generous -118 line we were able to get at our local sports book. Our max bets are now 8-3 all time.
Miguel Baeza ITD (+0.65 units)
Miguel Baeza proved to be too much for Takashi Sato. His striking was on point and it ultimately led to Baeza getting his 1st submission victory. We mentioned that he had a BBJ black belt in his back pocket last week and he was finally able to put it to good use.
Su Mudaerji ITD (+0.80 units)
This fight ended in less than a minute when Gordon could no longer withstand Mudaerji’s power on the feet. Mudaerji won like a big favorite should. Fortunately we were able to get generous odds of +160 by TKO / KO which we felt was the most likely way Mudaerji would win.
Losing bets
Ashlee Evans-Smith & ITD (-2.5 units)
We completely misread this fight just like we did with Ariane Lipski 2 weeks ago. There was too much focus put on the experience edge Evan-Smith had and not enough on her actual skills. Norma Dumont was able to completely outclass her everywhere and get an easy unanimous decision victory.
Spike Carlyle ITD (-0.5 units)
We took a chance thinking Carlyle would be the bigger, stronger, fighter and that could lead to a finish victory. Unfortunately Carlyle’s lack of cardio issues came up again which played a role in him losing a decision to Bill Algeo. Carlyle is a fun, exciting, fighter who needs to address his cardio issues before the UFC cuts him.
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Vettori (PLAYS)
Jack Hermansson over Marvin Vettori +120 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.
The winner of this fight is going to propel to being a legit title contender in the middleweight division. We’re taking the more battle tested Jack Hermansson. He’s fought the overall better competition and has the better wins between the two fighters.
Marvin Vettori is a good fighter and is riding a 3 fight winning streak. He doesn’t however fit the profile of the type of fighter that gives Hermansson trouble – powerful strikers. If he’s unable to hurt Hermansson and if the fight gets extended, we see Hermansson having more output and getting the victory.
Louis Smolka & Jose Quiñonez fight doesn’t go the distance +120 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.
The handicapping angle here is pretty simple. Louis Smolka’s last 7 fights have ended inside the distance. His fighting style is the main reason for this. Smolka is very aggressive and reckless at times so he’s either going to hurt his opponents or get hurt by them. The feeling here is Quiñonez will be a willing dance partner and contribute to the chaos meaning the fight should end before the final horn.
Ilia Topuria, Taila Santos, & Jamahal Hill parlay +196 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.
Ilia Topuria is an undefeated prospect who looks to grapple. He also has low key good striking and should be able to do enough to beat the veteran Jackson. Taila Santos had a breakout performance against Molly McCann. Santos is a good striker and De La Rosa tends to get hit too much. Jamahal Hill is also an up and coming undefeated prospect. He’s an excellent, high output striker who should outpoint or even finish OSP.
Nate Landwehr over Movsar Evloev +480 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.
The main reasoning behind this bet is that the line is ridiculously wide in our opinion. Movsar Evloev is an exciting, undefeated prospect who deserves to be favored here. However he hasn’t been dominant in his UFC fights to justify this type of line.
Nate Landwehr is 1-1 in the UFC and is coming of a win over UFC veteran Darren Elkins. He is an aggressive fighter with good takedown and submission defense. If Evloev has a hard time taking Landwehr down and the fight plays out mostly on the feet, he can pull off the huge upset here.
Matt Wiman over Jordan Leavitt +320 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.
Here’s another fight where the odds seem ridiculously wide. Matt Wiman is the much older fighter nearing the tail end of his career. But he has 2 things going for him in this matchup. He’s the much more experienced fighter and he’s never been submitted.
Jordan Leavitt is 7-0 and relies on his submission skills. He’s making his UFC debut and his striking is a mystery. There are too many unknowns with him to justify this big of a line so we’ll take a stab with the UFC veteran Wiman here.
Taila Santos ITD over Montana De La Rosa +375 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.
As we said earlier Santos is coming off of a breakout performance in her last fight. She’s the much better striker here and is no slouch on the ground. De La Rosa frequently gets beat up on the feet and we see the same happening here. While a one shot KO is unlikely, we feel there’s a chance Santos could inflict enough striking damage throughout the fight to warrant a stoppage.
Jamahal Hill ITD over Ovince St.Preux +150 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 12/3/20.
Jamahal Hill is yet another exciting undefeated prospect on this card. He has a nice striking skill set and is a high volume fighter in the light heavyweight division. The feeling here is that he’s going to be too athletic and active for OSP to handle.
OSP has been known to derail some prospects in the past but Hill’s volume and athleticism makes him different. The last 8-0 athletic prospect OSP faced was Dominick Reyes. We feel Hill will ultimately land something that hurts OSP and proceeds to finish him.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
