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We had a small losing week in part to some poor judging last week. Our bets ended up going 1-4 for a total loss of 1.1 units. Year to date we are down 19.84 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Gastelum (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Gerald Meerschaert by sub (2.4 units)
Our thoughts on how this fight would go came to fruition. Fabinski landed a takedown on Meerschaert and left his neck exposed in the process. Meerschaert quickly snatched it up and submitted him shortly after.
Losing Bets
Tony Gravely by dec (-0.5 units)
This fight was headed in the right direction until Birchak couldn’t prevent himself from getting hit cleanly. Gravely proved to be too much for Birchak to handle and got him out of there in round 2.
Juan Espino (-1 unit)
This is one of the fights where the judging was questionable. It clearly appeared to be 1-1 going into the 3rd round when the fight was called due to a low blow. Romanov appeared to be looking for a way out and literally did nothing in round 3. Espino should’ve taken that round across the board but somehow didn’t.
Alex Muñoz by decision (-1 unit)
This was the other fight where we felt slighted by the judges. The fight was no doubt close but it appeared that Muñoz did enough to deserve the decision. Unfortunately for us the judges didn’t see it that way.
Kelvin Gastelum (-1 unit)
This turned out to be a bad bet as Gastelum never had a chance. Whittaker looked real good in dominating Gastelum for the duration of the fight. He proved he’s still a top 3 middleweight in the world and deserves another shot at Israel Adesanya.
UFC 261: Usman vs Masvidal 2 (PLAYS)
Weili Zhang over Rose Namajunas ITD +210 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 4/23/21.
This is destined to be a great fight for however long it lasts. Namajunas has the more technical boxing and has dangerous BJJ. Her problem is she slows down when she’s constantly pressured and we see that happening in this fight.
Weili Zhang is a little tank and is relentless in her approach. She’s strong for the weight class and refuses to lose. We feel Namajunas will have success early on but will slowly get worn down by Zhang. Zhang will poor it on as the fight gets later eventually being too much for Namajunas to handle.
Valentina Shevchenko over Jessica Andrade ITD +135 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 4/23/21.
This is another fight that should be exciting for however long it lasts. We expect Jessica Andrade to take the fight to Valentina Shevchenko. Andrade is powerful and presses forward with little regard to what’s coming back at her. That is what we feel will be her demise in this fight.
Valentina Shevchenko is the 2nd best women’s fighter in the world. She’s well rounded and a very technical striker. Andrade most likely will constantly try to pressure her and we feel it will backfire at some point. We see her being able to clip a reckless Andrade along the way and finishing her shortly after.
Chris Weidman over Uriah Hall by decision +210 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 4/23/21.
This fight feels like it could go 1 of 2 ways. Either Weidman wins by decision or Hall wins by KO. We’re hoping it’s the former and not the latter.
Chris Weidman’s best days are behind him but he’s still a strong grappler. His problem is his chin isn’t as durable as it once was. If he’s able to implement his grappling then we see him winning a decision because Hall is a low volume fighter. l and has never been submitted. If he can’t take Hall down and the fight plays out on the feet then Hall will most likely clip him and take him out by KO.
Anthony Smith vs Jimmy Crute fight goes the distance +160 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 4/23/21.
This is a big step up in class for the surging prospect Jimmy Crute. He’s been impressive in his UFC career with only 1 loss on his record. The problem is his level of competition isn’t anywhere close to Anthony Smith.
Anthony Smith is a true veteran of the game with over 50 fights on his record. He’s only lost to the best of the best recently. Smith is also known for his durability. We see Smith being able to hang in there with Crute by using veteran tactics to prolong the fight. The fight of course could end at any moment but we feel there’s a good chance it makes it to the scorecards.
Brendan Allen over Karl Roberson ITD +110 (1 unit) & by sub +200 (0.33 units) Bet was placed on 4/23/21.
Brendan Allen was on a roll in the UFC going into his last fight against Sean Strickland. Unfortunately for him he had a poor game plan and decided to strike with Strickland. That didn’t work out very well as Strickland was able to TKO him in round 2.
Karl Roberson is another dangerous striker and we have to believe there’s an urgency for Allen to take the fight to the ground this time around. If he’s able to take Roberson down Allen has a heavy top game and will be in a position to pound out or submit Roberson. If not and the fight plays outs on the feet then Allen is at risk at getting KO’d again. We feel Allen will fight smarter this time around.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
