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Welcome back to Capper’s Delight. We’re coming off a small winning week for last weeks card. Our bets went 1-2 for a total win of 0.30 units. Year to date our bets are up 0.80 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAinformed.com.
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs Green (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Armen Petrosyan (+4.55 units)
This fight turned out to be a lot closer than we anticipated. Going into the fight we felt Petrosyan was by far the better striker and had a good chance to finish Rodrigues on the feet. What really happened was the fight was super close on the feet and we had to sweat out a razor thin decision to get the win. We also had to avoid a couple of close submission attempts along the way.
Losing Bets
Armen Petrosyan ITD (-2.25 units)
We were confident that this fight was going to finish inside the distance one way or another. While there were a few times the fight looked like it was going to end, it made it to the final horn. Our greed took away from our profits by playing Petrosyan ITD when we already had a straight bet on him at plus money.
Armen Petrosyan & Gregory Rodrigues FDGTD / Ramiz Brahimaj ITD parlay (-2 units)
Once again we were too heavily invested in a single fight and it cost us. When the Petrosyan fight went the distance it eliminated 2 of our 3 tickets for the event. Brahimaj did his part by being able to submit the outclassed Gilmore in round 1. Somehow we were able to squeak by with a tiny profit for the event though.
UFC 272: Covington vs Masvidal (PLAYS)
Umar Nurmagomedov ITD over Brian Kelleher +130 (2 units) Bet was placed on 3/4/22.
When you hear the name Nurmagomedov you think dominant wrestler. This version however also has elite striking and good submissions as well. We feel the younger, faster, Nurmagomedov will be too much for the veteran Kelleher to handle and will ultimately finish him along the way. Him winning by KO or submission are equally live in our opinion.
Jamie Mullarkey over Jalin Turner +125 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/4/22.
This is an evenly matched fight that truly can go either way. Give us the underdog in that spot. Mullarkey is a relentless offensive fighter who’s going to keep coming forward. Turner is the more athletic fighter with abnormal size for his weight class. Mullarkey seems to be coming into his own and has the better wins on his resume.
Kevin Holland by submission over Alex Oliveira +750 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/4/22.
Kevin Holland is the better fighter in this spot and his odds reflect it. Oliveira on the other hand tends to check out of fights when they’re not going his way. We can see a scenario where a tired Oliveira is looking for a way out later in the fight. If the fight is on the mat at that moment then Holland theoretically could win by submission. At odds of +750 it’s worth the risk in our opinion.
Devonte Smith & Ludovit Klein FDGTD / Sergey Spivak & Greg Hardy FDGTD parlay +110 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/4/22.
Ludovit Klein has only gone to decision a few times in his career. Devonte Smith has never gone to decision in his career. Both have the power and skill to finish one another. Also Smith’s cardio is in question as he is known to slow down significantly after round 1. For those reasons we feel the fight is unlikely to make it to the final horn.
The Spivak – Hardy fight seems like a straight forward fight to break down. If Hardy is going to win it’s most likely going to be by an early KO. If Spivak wins its most likely going to be on the ground by sub or ground and pound. We find it hard to believe that Hardy either wins a decision or makes it to decision. If he doesn’t win by KO it seems unlikely he can withstand Spivak on top of him for the duration of the fight.
Dustin Jacoby / Kennedy Nzechukwu / Marina Rodriguez parlay +231 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 3/4/22.
Dustin Jacoby is the more decorated kickboxer
in what figures to be a stand up fight. Also he has a distinct size advantage as Oleksiejczuk is a small light heavyweight. Jacoby’s volume should help him get the decision if he doesn’t finish him along the way.
Kennedy Nzechukwu is the more talented fighter who’s fought the better competition. Negumereanu has a nice record but his quality of opposition is suspect. Give us the more athletic, better coached, and more proven fighter in this spot.
Marina Rodriguez is most likely one win away from a title shot. Her striking is the best in the division and this figures to be a striking matchup. She’s also fought and beaten the better competition. Yan is coming off a devastating loss and is simply outgunned in this spot.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed.com
