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We had another losing night of betting for UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs Brunson. Our bets ended up going 0-2-1 on the night for a total loss of 4 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +16.77 units with an overall ROI of 10%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 23%.
UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs Brunson (RESULTS)
Winning Bets
Unfortunately we didn’t have a winning bet on this card. The only bet that didn’t lose was a draw in the Gutierrez vs Durden fight. That bet was supposed to be part of a 2 leg parlay but it became a straight bet on Gutierrez when Ray Borg pulled out of his fight. On a side note the UFC recently pulled Borg from its roster by cutting him.
We ended up having 3 units on Gutierrez at -345. The scoring of the fight seemed a bit questionable. Gutierrez lost the 1st round and went on to win the remaining 2 rounds. We didn’t get the win however because all 3 judges gave Durden a 10-8 score in round 1. Durden easily won round 1 by having a lopsided amount of control time but didn’t deserve the 10-8 in our opinion.
Losing Bets
Randy Brown (-1 unit)
We took a stab on Randy Brown at dog odds against Vicente Luque and he couldn’t get the job done. Brown seemed to have turned a corner coming into the fight but Luque proved to be too much for him. Luque is a legit top 15 welterweight but he still gets hit quite a bit. We felt Brown would be the fighter to make him pay but that just wasn’t the case.
Joanne Calderwood (-3 units)
This turned out to be a horrible bet as Jennifer Maia was able to submit Calderwood towards the end of round 1. Jojo was never in the fight and something seemed off with her. Maia landed the cleaner shots and when Calderwood got the take down Maia was able to position herself for an armbar submission shortly after. Calderwood actually ended up fainting later after the fight was over backing up the feeling that something seemed off with her.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Oleinik (PLAYS)
Omari Akhmedov over Chris Weidman +115 (3 units) Bet was placed on 8/6/20.
Chris Weidman is the former UFC Middleweight Champion of world. He’s fought the best the middleweight division has to offer. The problem is he lost the title 5 years ago and is just 1-5 in his last 6 fights. Making matters worse is that he was stopped in all 5 of those losses.
Now he’s 35 years old and still has visions of competing at the highest level again. The fact of the matter is those days are long gone and he’s absorbed an extraordinary amount of damage since losing the title. The more likely scenario is that Akhmedov is too much for this version of Chris Weidman to handle and retirement talk begins to surface.
Omari Akhmedov enters this fight on a 6 fight undefeated streak and is in the prime of his career at age 32. While not as decorated as the last 5 fighters to defeat Weidman, Akhmedov is a good fighter and is dangerous. You couple that with the decline of Weidman’s chin and Akhmedov could end up stopping him as well. There are too many red flags with Weidman at this stage of his career. Getting a fighter of Akhmedov’s quality at dog odds is the value side.
Laureano Staropoli over Tim Means -137 (2 units) Bet was placed on 8/7/20.
Tim Means is 36 years old and has 42 pro fights on his resume. He’s been finished in 2 of his last 3 fights and was stopped in his last fight as an over -300 favorite against a debuting UFC fighter. Of his last 6 wins dating back to 2015, only 1 of those fighters (Ricky Rainey) are still on the active UFC roster. It’s hard to find a recent quality win on his record while his chin is starting to diminish.
Laureano Staropoli has 11 pro fights on his record and is 2-1 in the UFC. In fairness his 2 wins were against fighters who either are no longer or don’t belong in the UFC. He’s a creative striker who’s also a good counter striker. Staropoli should be able to tag Means enough to get a decision victory or possibly even a stoppage with the way Means has been getting rocked lately.
Scott Holtzman over Beneil Dariush +175 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/8/20.
Beneil Dariush looked like he was starting to decline 2 years ago when he was KO’d by Alexander Hernandez. Since then he’s rattled off 4 wins in a row and is a top 15 ranked lightweight. He’s a very talented, well rounded fighter, with some nice wins on his resume. But he does have some chin issues and has been known to gas late in some fights.
Scott Holtzman has been on a nice little run himself going 5-1 in his last 6 fights. He’s a tough, gritty fighter, who’s got excellent cardio and a good chin. He’s not as talented a fighter as Dariush is but he still can beat Dariush if his chin issues appear or if he has gas issues late in the fight. We feel getting Holtzman at +175 is worth a stab.
Maki Pitolo over Darren Stewart +132 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 8/8/20.
Darren Stewart is the more experienced UFC fighter with a record of 4-4 in the octagon. He’s lost to some good fighters but his wins are against average level fighters. Stewart is tough and has a violent style of fighting, but he can be beaten.
Maki Pitolo is just 1-1 in the UFC but he’s a banger. Known as “Coconut Bombz” Pitolo has 10 finishes of his 13 victories. His problem was trying to make weight and fight at welterweight. Now that he’s moved up to middleweight he looks like a different fighter. His power is still there and he’s been more durable. If this fight plays out on the feet we like our chances with Pitolo at dog odds.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
