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We had another small winning week last week. Our bets ended up going 2-1 on the night for a total profit of 1.80 units. All bets are 3rd party tracked at Betmma.tips under the handicapper profile name MMAInformed.com. Year to date we are +10.95 units with an overall ROI of 5%. Our straight bets currently show a ROI of 12%.
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana (RESULTS)
Winning bets
Germaine de Randamie (+2 units)
We felt De Randamie was the better overall fighter and she came through for us. She was the better striker and had more experience against elite competition. What came as a surprise is that she was able to submit the better grappler in Peña. She proved to be great value as only a -150 favorite.
Kyler Phillips (+0.80 units)
This ended up being a complete mismatch. Phillips is a rising prospect with some nice wins on his resume. Else on the other hand was coming in on short notice while fighting on the European regional scene. Phillips proved to be much quicker and better everywhere. It was only a matter of time before he was able to submit Else at the ITD odds of only -125.
Losing bets
Charles Jourdain ITD (-1 unit)
We weren’t as lucky with our Jourdain ITD bet. Going into the fight we felt he was the better fighter by far and had a good chance to finish Culibao. To Culibao’s credit he hung tough and was able to earn a draw decision. Our read was off on Culibao and we made the mistake of underestimating his abilities which cost us.
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs Sandhagen (PLAYS)
Marlon Moraes over Cory Sandhagen +120 (2 units) & Marlon Moraes ITD +185 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 10/8/20.
We are of the belief that Marlon Moraes should be the favorite in this fight. He has more experience in general and against elite competition. In his last 5 fights Moraes has gone 4-1. During that time frame he holds victories over Aljamain Sterling, Jimmie Rivera, Raphael Assuncao, and Jose Aldo. His only loss during that time was to Henry Cejudo.
When we look at Cory Sandhagen’s best wins they’ve come against Raphael Assuncao and John Lineker. He’s coming off a 1st round submission loss to Aljamain Sterling in his last fight. Sandhagen is a high volume, exciting fighter but has yet to defeat a fighter of Moraes’ caliber.
There’s a narrative out there that Moraes has a bad gas tank and the longer the fight goes, the better for Sandhagen. While that might be true it should also be noted that Sandhagen tends to get hit clean and has been hurt in a couple of his recent fights. He also tends to keep his hands low during fights. Moraes has shown multiple times the ability to finish his opponent after hurting them.
Ilia Topuria over Youssef Zalal +150 (1 unit) & Ilia Topuria ITD +225 (0.5 units) Bets were placed on 10/8/20.
Youssef Zalal is 3-0 since coming to the UFC, winning all 3 fights by unanimous decision. While winning 3 UFC fights in a row is impressive, the quality of his opposition wasn’t. Now he faces UFC newcomer Ilia Topuria, who’s stepping on on short notice.
Topuria comes to the UFC with an undefeated record of 8-0. While his record was built on lesser known foreign promotions, he’s shown the ability to finish fights. He’s a good striker but a better grappler. He has good takedowns and an aggressive submission game. We’re banking on the fact that he’ll be able to get the fight to the ground and do what he does best.
Chris Daukaus over Rodrigo Nascimento +220 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/8/20.
Rodrigo Nascimento has more hype behind him with his 8-0 record. He was impressive in his UFC debut, winning by 2nd round submission. He has good hands for a heavyweight but his bread and butter is grappling and will look to get the fight to the ground.
Chris Daukaus also won his UFC debut impressively by 1st round TKO. He has very good boxing and fast hands. He’s also no slouch on the ground should the fight end up there. Daukaus should look to keep the fight upright where we believe he has the advantage. He’s coming into the fight lighter which should translate to more hand speed and better cardio. We like his chances as an over 2-1 underdog.
Edson Barboza over Makwan Amirkhani ITD +120 (1 unit) Bet was placed on 10/8/20.
This is an exciting matchup between two contrasting styles. Amirkhani is an excellent grappler and will focus on getting the fight to the ground. His stand up game leaves a lot to be desired and his cardio has let him down a few times in the past.
Barboza is a world class striker with multiple highlight reel finishes on his record. He’ll look to keep the fight standing as grappling is his kryptonite. Barboza has literally fought the best the fighters the UFC has to offer throughout his career. Amirkhani on the other hand hasn’t and has lost to fighters less credentialed than Barboza. We feel Barboza will break down Amirkhani over the course of the fight and ultimately finish him. The possibility of a flash KO at any point is also on the table.
Tony Kelley over Ali AlQaisi ITD +220 (0.5 units) Bet was placed on 10/8/20.
This is a fight between two fighters who lost their UFC debuts. AlQaisi lost a close split decision to Irwin Rivera. Kelley lost a unanimous decision to prospect Kai Kamaka but earned a fight of the night bonus in defeat.
Kelley showed off good striking skills and high volume in his UFC debut. He also was aggressive with submissions when the fight hit the ground. AlQaisi is a step down in competition compared to Kamaka so we’re taking a chance that Kelley can finish the fight inside the distance.
Anthony Sotelo for MMAInformed
